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HoarfrostHubb

Spring 2019 New England Banter and Disco

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hope Mom is close by.  We had 2 fawns born in our lower field last year and watched them grow up with Mom all through the summer, fall and winter. They moved on this spring

We were a little worried about that.  I saw a doe in the area later in the evening and assumed she was waiting for people to leave before getting the fawn and the fawn was gone in the morning.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yep, this one coming out is the new core. It's a different world now. 

It is a model as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between accuracy and fiction, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the model of imagination. It is an area which we call the miss-guidance zone.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is a model as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between accuracy and fiction, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the model of imagination. It is an area which we call the miss-guidance zone.

Sounds like it's run out of James' basement.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sounds like it's run out of James' basement.

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid mechanics and themodynamics... 

Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the   "James-Kevin"   equation -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid and themodynamics... 

Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the   "James-Kevin"   equation -

Not ironic that they abbreviate it with "j/k"

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Just now, dendrite said:

Not ironic that they abbreviate it with "j/k"

Right ...right...  It's all clear now - 

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52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like 12z

Has all the convection  with the Thursday deal offshore.. let the fun begin lol

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the new GFS crapped itself right out of the gate. Sweet.

In fairness the GFS didn't crap itself, but the way website receive the GFS did. Probably just a naming convection issue.

I have to back Louis up on this one.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

In fairness the GFS didn't crap itself, but the way website receive the GFS did. Probably just a naming convection issue.

I have to back Louis up on this one.

I mean it;s solution for tomorrow. That looks a little too light on QPF. 

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I found a place with a 700-500 lapse rate almost 10 :o :lol: :lol: 

and sfc- 3km almost 11

2019061212_GFS_081_35.93,-104.45_severe_

 

EDIT: just joking here...just funny to see those numbers. the sfc starts above 850 anyways. 

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Well we shall see. Maybe all of SNE aside from the Cape get the 7/10 split, but having trouble seeing QPF that low over such a wide area. SPC HREF makes sense to me.

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Nice battle right out of the gate. :popcorn:

 

Isn't the old op still available for awhile? Did that get moved to the para?

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well we shall see. Maybe all of SNE aside from the Cape get the 7/10 split, but having trouble seeing QPF that low over such a wide area. SPC HREF makes sense to me.

I would be shocked if it ended up that low. Just doesn't seem right given the setup. Pretty strong isentropic lift and PWATS > 1.50'' 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nice battle right out of the gate. :popcorn:

 

Isn't the old op still available for awhile? Did that get moved to the para?

Correct.

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question. So is today's " 12Z GFS" the FV3 data?   

Best way to check is via the simulated satellite. FV3 is better resolution (different parameterization) than the old GFS.

So Tidbits was FV3.

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Wait how is this going to be reflected in bufkit? PSU site only has "GFS"...never even had GFS FV3. 12z usually out by now but its not

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wait how is this going to be reflected in bufkit? PSU site only has "GFS"...never even had GFS FV3. 12z usually out by now but its not

Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core.

I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. 

Overall it's a marginal improvement over the GFS, and we shouldn't expect to see drastic changes from the old core. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. 

:weenie:

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