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OBS thread 10P Mar 1-10A Mar 2, 2019

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Agree with one storm at a time at this point, what a tricky forecast all around with this one, marginal temps across all levels and possibly strong dynamics at play 

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Newer NAM looks better for NYC folks. Snow maps don’t say so but a lot of the precip on 6z was sleet/rain. Looks more snowy on this run.

edit: just realized this is an obs thread my bad!

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Lift in the DGZ looks excellent for the region, I'd be inclined to take overs on snowfall forecasts when taking a look at the soundings.  This can be an surprise 3-6" for many in CT, 2-5" city/LI.  Not as bullish central/south Jersey.

 

I see the GFS BL issue, I'm just not sure I'd take that over the DGZ

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton going 3-5" yet temps remaining in the mid 30s

Please, will you post Upton. Have a hardworking daughter in NYC and curious about specifics. Thank you.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Please, will you post Upton. Have a hardworking daughter in NYC and curious about specifics. Thank you.

Sure

 

StormTotalSnow.png

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5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

29.5/24 Expecting around 4" tonight.

3" will get me to 30" for this pathetic year.

More than double what I have

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53 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

29.5/24 Expecting around 4" tonight.

3" will get me to 30" for this pathetic year.

 

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

More than double what I have

I'm at 14" so yeah, double :(

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00Z Upton RAOB should give us a hint how big the sleet threat is.  I suspect that south Brooklyn Queens and Nassau will be dealing with sleet for a good portion of this event and that LGA back through NYC and EWR could be mostly snow 

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It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain. 

Think something like December 1995 or January 2004.  Both events there was prolonged sleet on the south shore that cut amounts fairly significantly in some areas while the north shore was all snow.  I’m not so sure about rain unless we are talking about the south fork of east Suffolk 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Think something like December 1995 or January 2004.  Both events there was prolonged sleet on the south shore that cut amounts fairly significantly in some areas while the north shore was all snow.  I’m not so sure about rain unless we are talking about the south fork of east Suffolk 

Yeah, also a possibility. Surface temps on the south shore may be just over freezing to start the event and result in it being rain, but it gets colder as the storm goes on. I remember Jan 2004 being a lot of sleet for hours, and 2/8/13 also killing the extreme south shore with sleet whiile it snowed for hours on the north shore. It's what stopped everyone on LI from reaching 18-20"+. Those totals were on the north shore where it was almost all snow and further east where the death band set up.

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Still think the same.  2-5" city and north shore LI, 3-6" CT thru northeast Jersey and southernmost Hudson Valley.  Sleet will be cutting totals south shore.

Robust DGZ and lack of wind should help ratios in this one for those north of the city.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam looks about the same for tonight

The Nam got a little warmer. Dynamics seem slower to get going and a lot of what falls around the city and coast seems to be sleet or sleet/rain mix because the column doesn't cool enough. To me it's nowcasting and let's see what happens time. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The Nam got a little warmer. Dynamics seem slower to get going and a lot of what falls around the city and coast seems to be sleet or sleet/rain mix because the column doesn't cool enough. To me it's nowcasting and let's see what happens time. 

Yea this may happen if the precip is weaker and dynamics weaker, still looks like mostly snow for the city and NW but could easily deal with a warm tounge with this  

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea this may happen if the precip is weaker and dynamics weaker, still looks like mostly snow for the city and NW but could easily deal with a warm tounge with this  

HRRR still looks cooler and switches many over to snow for a while, but it does have a warm nose come in and there's a period of sleet. Dynamics and lift will likely determine how it goes-if it never really gets going, a lot of it will probably be sleet or even sleet/rain because the warm mid levels win out, if heavy rates do happen the warm air gets overcome and many flip over to snow and get a few/several inches. 

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RAP if anything looks cooler than the HRRR. Unfortunately it seems to shift things almost due east once snow gets into CT and Boston area gets shafted. 

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