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WEATHERMINATOR

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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Just now, snowman19 said:

It’s called a changing pattern. Yes, that was a risk a few days ago. Shortwaves and stream flows moved around. You do know weather changes and evolves right?

Yes. Most understand that. Its why we try not to talk in absolutes around here. Now back to the changing pattern.

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4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

euro?

Surface looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z run. 850s slightly colder.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro probably overdoing the amplification given the progressive flow. 

But it also has been the best performer overall so I can't discount it. 

It’s slowly caving 

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Euro probably overdoing the amplification given the progressive flow. 
But it also has been the best performer overall so I can't discount it. 
Euro still rain for the coast?

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19 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

surface looks the same wrt/snow and temps, but 850s were warmer on 12Z vs. last night, not colder...

I only compared it to yesterday's 12z on the TT 72-hour panel.

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1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Nam is going to be a big hit

 

nam’d

It seemed that way but changes to rain. Looks like 6-8" before changeover.

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

It seemed that way but changes to rain. Looks like 6-8" before changeover.

Areas just to the north and west get crushed on the nam. Alot if snow and sleet for NYC.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Areas just to the north and west get crushed on the nam. Alot if snow and sleet for NYC.

Its too amped, but not too surprising at 60 hours on the NAM. The EURO being so far NW is concerning though, despite the GFS, UKIE, ICON and to an extent the CMC

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1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

3k is cooler and is great for the metro area.

From past storms I noticed that 3k NAM is usually cooler than the other two. Why is that?

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3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

From past storms I noticed that 3k NAM is usually cooler than the other two. Why is that?

Not too sure, but in this case it’s just because the NAM is a little more tucked in than the 3k.

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Not too sure, but in this case it’s just because the NAM is a little more tucked in than the 3k.

I just don’t think we change to rain I think this just ends as some light sleet maybe a shower as it pulls out. 3k nam crushes us and keeps it cold and snowy. 

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1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

I just don’t think we change to rain I think this just ends as some light sleet maybe a shower as it pulls out. 3k nam crushes us and keeps it cold and snowy. 

And why do you think that? 

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