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John1122

Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.

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Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. 

That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. 

There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. 

After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March. 

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Another one of those Euro runs where I would have loved to have seen it out about 2 more days. Not that there's any reason to put much stock in that individual solution, just would have been a beautiful run for NWP curiosity's sake. 

Drops 12+ in 6 hours  on Abingdon with more to come. Major coastal storm.  I think a 6 inch snow storm probably would be better than rain at this point, but the mountains definitely do not need a 2 foot plus storm as the pattern shifts to spring and maybe more rain. Wouldn't that just be a perfect final gut punch for this winter though? We get a beautiful snow storm, but can't enjoy it because of the worry for flooding with melt. 

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6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Another one of those Euro runs where I would have loved to have seen it out about 2 more days. Not that there's any reason to put much stock in that individual solution, just would have been a beautiful run for NWP curiosity's sake. 

Drops 12+ in 6 hours  on Abingdon with more to come. Major coastal storm.  I think a 6 inch snow storm probably would be better than rain at this point, but the mountains definitely do now need a 2 foot plus storm as the pattern shifts to spring and maybe more rain. Wouldn't that just be a perfect final gut punch for this winter though? We get a beautiful snow storm, but can't enjoy it because of the worry for flooding with melt. 

GEFS and EPS are not far from that Euro Op run...its been there a few days. Definitely peaked my interest, while ops have been varied with suppression (Euro bias), individual members aren't varying as much on either ensemble. With the load pattern moisture wise we have been in, it would not surprise me. I actually give it a 30% chance at this range. Yeah would definitely be a kick in the junk. Something else I worry about, the extremely high soil moisture content and freezing temps. Once it thaws back out, risk of slides will only go up.

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The Euro lost the monster pinball storm. (I'm calling it that since when I looked at the energy, it is actually over the Aleutians tomorrow, but on yesterday's 12z Euro run, it bounced all around Canada and the arctic for 9 days before hitting us). 

But it gained three smaller threats within 10 days. One of these is in 6 days.  

2 - 4 inch storm I - 40 north and then another 3 - 5 inch storm from Knoxville and points north and east. 

Looking at the vort maps, the "pinball storm" is still there, just slightly different placement. Very chaotic over N. America with a ripping Pac jet undercutting big vort chunks rolling in and south through souther Canada, displaced by the big EPO ridge. 

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I'll add I'm almost to the point where I don't look at much besides the Euro and EPS, but man the 0z Fv3 had almost the same progression for the pinball storm. Amazing how similar the tracks the vort. took were on both models. 6z fv3 was suppressed, though. 

Some good news too in that between the CMC, Euro, GFS, and Fv3, no model gives our area over 2inches of .qpf over the next 2 weeks! 

Ensemble means are a little more aggressive (as in 2.5 inches vs 2). Euro is the lowest at 1.9 over 15 days. 

I'll sneakily slip this in here:

giphy.gif 

Sorry for the resolution, but made it a gif to save space. 

If any of you have access to the individual EPS members, I recommend a look at 0z member 47 from day 6 through 15, lol. 

 

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00z EPS improved if you are looking for snow...HP over the Midwest isn't so overbearing and allowed more LP clusters to come NW along the Gulf and across the FL panhandle.

eps_slp_lows_east_38.png

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Some good looks on the operational runs of the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC.  The good thing is that some of these threats are now under 200h.  Not going to add much as it looks like folks above have covered the threat.  Looks like those strong HPs are still in play for early March.  Give me those and an active STJ and let's see what happens.  Reminds me a lot of late November and early December.

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The 0z EPS has a great late winter/early spring(I count every snowflake in my winter count FTR) look.  Big, cold highs pressing south into the front range of the Rockies and then pressing eastward.  There looks to be 2-3 systems in the day 7-10 range that might have to be watched.  Everyone knows the rules about this time of year...even though I count it on my winter totals, it is all bonus stuff.  So, I don't get overly invested at this time of year because climatology is working against us in the valleys and for those at lower latitudes in the forum area.  However, with those big highs...latitude might actually be less of an issue.  Do we finish winter the we way started it?  Certainly looks like we have a shot at doing that.  I also like this time of year, because it is usually the last time(before next winter) that our weather community gets to track winter events.  Feast or famine.  Throw everything out the window in early March.  Anything can happen.  And for once, some of these threats are inside of d7 and inside of d10.  Not constantly having to wait for a d10-15 pattern.  

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All three operationals are showing a decent window from d6-10.  Again, nice big highs in the northern Plains w a portion of those highs spreading eastward - banana high type stuff.  It is unlikely that any model has the details correct at this point, but the setup might actually be there for one, final legit window(famous last words).  Looks remarkably similar to early winter.  30 day SOI is now around -12.  MJO is about to cycle through phase 2-3 which is decent for winter weather.  NAO, PNA, AO are not super favorable.  However, the EPO is forecast to be negative for the next ten days.   The EPO has been a key driver this winter.  The other thing is that we may be catching it right before it pops positive...rising or falling signals are good indicators for a stormy pattern.  

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I was actually encouraged in the 6-10 d window because the V3 wasn’t showing anything. My optimism ended this morning.


.

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Something else that I have noticed over the years, we want the system fairly suppressed at five to six days out.  March systems are notoriously underdone and tend to jog well north of early modeling.  So, some of these suppressed systems are a good sign.  If we are right on the edge, it is likely pulling north of our area.  Just something to watch.  Again...really want to emphasize that it is important to just enjoy the ride and tracking at this point.  I pretty much take everything w a dose of salt right now until within four days.  Window still looks good.  Seem like there are 3-4 pieces of energy rolling through beginning around Sunday.  Modeling is still trying to "figure out" which system to emphasize.  Looks like some of that energy takes the low road.  Going to need cooperation w temps and time of day.  The next three suites(meaning 0z and 12z) are fairly important IMHO.  A bit of a long shot...but at least we have something to track.

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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Something else that I have noticed over the years, we want the system fairly suppressed at five to six days out.  March systems are notoriously underdone and tend to jog well north of early modeling.  So, some of these suppressed systems are a good sign.  If we are right on the edge, it is likely pulling north of our area.  Just something to watch.  Again...really want to emphasize that it is important to just enjoy the ride and tracking at this point.  I pretty much take everything w a dose of salt right now until within four days.  Window still looks good.  Seem like there are 3-4 pieces of energy rolling through beginning around Sunday.  Modeling is still trying to "figure out" which system to emphasize.  Looks like some of that energy takes the low road.  Going to need cooperation w temps and time of day.  The next three suites(meaning 0z and 12z) are fairly important IMHO.  A bit of a long shot...but at least we have something to track.

Here's a big problem with the system pulling north (12z Euro)...its keeps inching the axis of heavy rainfall over areas trying to dry out.

ecmwf_tprecip_nashville_27.png

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

TRI folks, here is a fancy snow map for lunch. Somehow managed to get it within 6 days, lol. 

That might be the strangest system I've seen the GFS spit out within 168 hrs in a long time. It's basically a 12-18 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow from a strange setup:

  • 132: over ATL; 1050 mb H at the Montana/Alberta/Saskatchewan border
  • 138: over CAE; 1052 mb H just SE of previous position
  • 144: now approx. 100 mi south, near HHI; 1052 mb H in same position
  • 150: off Hatteras, 1004 mb.

floop-gfs-2019022612.prateptype_cat.us_ma.gif

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1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

6 hr totals...00z vs 12z...axis shifting north. Last thing the counties along the TN/AL border need.

ecmwf_precip_06_nashville_24.png

ecmwf_precip_06_nashville_22.png

Last thing we need indeed.  The kids in hardeman country still haven’t gone back to school due to all the flooded roads still affecting bus routes.  We definitely need to keep an eye on any possible precip coming in the next 5-7 days imo. 

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2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Here's a big problem with the system pulling north (12z Euro)...its keeps inching the axis of heavy rainfall over areas trying to dry out.

ecmwf_tprecip_nashville_27.png

My earlier comment was regarding tracking a snowstorm and the rain snow line...I don't think anyone wants more heavy rain.  I do think we are in a tight spot now that we have had so much rain that has actually preceded Spring.  I am definitely looking over my shoulder for signs that this pattern of repetitive rainfall over the forum area sets up shop again.  Really, we have not had a break from precip since November.  We had warm days and boring wether during the first 2/3 of fall.  Since then, the precip has been plentiful.  We really need to settle in to just a normal frequency for precip soon.

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