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snowman19

March, 2019

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The stronger the system is on Saturday the better for Monday

Both systems are a very hard forecast right now. I think we're getting closer to saying the HV through SNE will see accumulating snow this weekend from at least one of the events if not both, for the city it's such a hard forecast. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Upton has 2 inches of snow for the NYC area tomorrow night into Saturday

I could easily see 2 inches tomorrow morning.  This little system is inching more north each run and I’m not sure it’ll damp out as fast as shown...remember the washout always occurs a nose later than shown so you always have to watch areas right where it’s expected for a slower weakening  

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I could be wrong (as I’ve mostly been since november) but I don’t see coastal areas seeing much snow on the Middle system of these 3 at all.  

I definitely like system 3 the best

 

Not sure between 1 and 2 which has more potential, I almost think its 2 but I also live on Bronx/Yonkers border which is slightly different from the rest of the city, I can see the snows tomorrow morning maybe reaching Southern parts of the city

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I could be wrong (as I’ve mostly been since november) but I don’t see coastal areas seeing much snow on the Middle system of these 3 at all.  

Agreed. upper levels are too warm for snow as depicted on the models. The storm will have to create its own cold air at the 850 level to snow in the City area. If its a heavy cold rain but sets up the sunday storm more south I will take it

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22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Upton has 2 inches of snow for the NYC area tomorrow night into Saturday

Think Upton is too cold for tomorrow night, they don't even have rain in the forecast, just snow and sleet. 

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February is now concluding. New York City finished with a monthly mean temperature of 36.2°, which was +0.9° above normal. Snowfall was just 2.6", which was 6.6" below normal for the month.

Select seasonal snowfall amounts (through 2/28 5 pm) were:

Albany: 45.0", 1.9" below normal
Allentown: 20.6", 6.4" below normal
Baltimore:15.6", 2.6" below normal
Binghamton: 72.2", 8.3" above normal
Boston: 13.9", 20.2" below normal
Bridgeport: 11.1", 10.5" below normal
Buffalo: 107.8", 29.0" above normal (26th snowiest winter)
Burlington: 87.2", 26.4" above normal (30th snowiest winter)
Caribou: 147.0", 64.5" above normal (8th snowiest winter)
Chicago: 41.3", 11.8" above normal
Detroit: 28.7", 5.2" below normal
Harrisburg: 28.7", 3.7" above normal
Hartford: 29.8", 2.9" below normal
Islip: 8.7", 11.0" below normal
New York City: 10.1", 11.2" below normal
Newark: 11.9" 12.1", 10.9" below normal
Philadelphia: 13.1", 5.9" below normal
Portland: 50.9", 4.5" above normal
Providence: 17.6", 10.1" below normal
Scranton: 25.9", 8.0" below normal
Sterling: 24.9", 6.0" above normal
Washington, DC: 16.6", 2.5" above normal
Worcester: 35.8", 14.1" below normal 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -2.88 today. That is its highest figure since February 9 when the SOI was -2.40.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.707. The preliminary average for meteorological winter was +0.132. In total, 51% days had positive values and 48% days had negative values. The AO will very likely remain predominantly positive through March 1-15. This historic experience has strong support from the latest ensembles.

On February 27, the MJO moved into Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.920(RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the February 26-adjusted figure of 2.053. The MJO will continue to advance toward Phase 3.

The SOI is now approaching zero. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, a drier pattern could begin to evolve in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States over the next 2-3 weeks.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or perhaps significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms.

Afterward, sustained warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January.

In terms of snowfall, another system could bring parts of the area, especially south of New York City, some measurable snow very late tonight into tomorrow and again Friday night into Saturday. A bigger system could impact the region Sunday night into Monday. The potential exists for a moderate accumulation of snow in and around New York City and possibly a significant snowfall well inland and in parts of New England, including the Boston area.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yea seems 18Z NAM is the outlier with that one now, I would expect 0Z to come in stronger/closer to the coast.

It’s looking like a nice event from maybe the Hudson Valley through SNE. It could really go to town in Boston through SE MA. It looks marginal/too warm near the coast here unless the coastal low can ramp up faster. 

The first feature tomorrow night again looks like it dries up as it gets here, much like the system about a week ago. Any which way, it looks like nothing can work out with these. I’m still thinking odds are the Sun night/Monday system is warm/rain near the coast due to it being too close. Maybe the Sat night event can be strong enough to bring the boundary east for the next one, but the latest GFS wasn’t enough to get it done east of the city. 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s looking like a nice event from maybe the Hudson Valley through SNE. It could really go to town in Boston through SE MA. It looks marginal/too warm near the coast here unless the coastal low can ramp up faster. 

The first feature tomorrow night again looks like it dries up as it gets here, much like the system about a week ago. Any which way, it looks like nothing can work out with these. I’m still thinking odds are the Sun night/Monday system is warm/rain near the coast due to it being too close. Maybe the Sat night event can be strong enough to bring the boundary east for the next one, but the latest GFS wasn’t enough to get it done east of the city. 

Hopefully the 0Z runs provide a bit of clarity and consistency at least for storm 1 and storm 2 

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I could be wrong (as I’ve mostly been since november) but I don’t see coastal areas seeing much snow on the Middle system of these 3 at all.  

Best shot of snow is Friday night into Saturday morning for the coast.  Monday is a rain storm.  Basically I like the exact opposite of what you posted in terms of snow

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Best shot of snow is Friday night into Saturday morning for the coast.  Monday is a rain storm

We don’t know that,  24 hrs ago saturdays system was a non event

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM way west tomorrow night with precip and looks like 850s crash in times for snow for the city.

That’s a decent snowstorm for us looks like a 3-6 inches combing them together.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM way west tomorrow night with precip and looks like 850s crash in times for snow for the city.

The Nam is really the only model that crashes the 850s south like that. It's possible if the storm is dynamic enough but it seems like things just get going a little late for that to happen for us, and there's a primary-ish system to the west that brings warm air up. Most models hold the 850 zero line near the CT coast and Rockland/Westchester until it's gone. 

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6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM way west tomorrow night with precip and looks like 850s crash in times for snow for the city.

2M temps start dropping too

namconus_T2m_us_36.png

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Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

So does the hrdps and rgem

I'd be more comfortable with that if the Euro shows it too-it's hi res like those models. Right now the Euro still looks warm here. Hopefully overnight, the models cranking the storm sooner can crash the cold mid level air south sooner. 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Nam is really the only model that crashes the 850s south like that. It's possible if the storm is dynamic enough but it seems like things just get going a little late for that to happen for us, and there's a primary-ish system to the west that brings warm air up. Most models hold the 850 zero line near the CT coast and Rockland/Westchester until it's gone. 

NAM seems to develop the storm faster than the other models, not saying its right but thats why its showing the solution it's showing. The other models blow the storm up further north and later on

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