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2/20-21 Thump to Ice Winter Storm Threat

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53 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I'm prepared to enjoy this as always, maybe a bit more since our next chance for accumulating snow may be in early March, if then. Thinking 2" to 4" here.

In most cases the changeover happens prematurely so I'm just gonna go with 1-3"...any more will be a bonus but not wagering  on it.

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1 hour ago, whetherphl said:

Do you guys think this is going to affect flights into PHL late Wed night? Have to get back into Philly by then at the latest and want to know if I should change my flight....

Many weather models have surface temps at or below freezing in Philly as late as 8-9pm. Yes there will be travel disruptions. Hope all goes well!

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1 hour ago, hazwoper said:

I always understood this...a watch is issued up to 58 hrs before hand when the potential exists.  Has nothing to do with those criteria posted above.  Notice “watch” is nowhere to be seen n those maps

Watches are typically issued where warning criteria is anticipated to be reached or exceeded, which is directly tied to the criteria maps posted earlier. A watch is for the potential so there is nothing wrong with going to an advisory if amounts look to be lower. Issuing a watch can definitely help with messaging especially with uncertainty, instead of going from ‘nothing’ to an advisory. 

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3 hours ago, whetherphl said:

Do you guys think this is going to affect flights into PHL late Wed night? Have to get back into Philly by then at the latest and want to know if I should change my flight....

You should be ok.  There may be some delays, my buddy flew in around 11:30 from Denver to PHL during last storm.  I think that was during the first wave where the PHL area got snow and not ice though.  Depends on timing but planes have built in de-icing mechanisms and it will be warm enough to keep the runway ice free with salt.  

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1 hour ago, MGorse said:

Watches are typically issued where warning criteria is anticipated to be reached or exceeded, which is directly tied to the criteria maps posted earlier. A watch is for the potential so there is nothing wrong with going to an advisory if amounts look to be lower. Issuing a watch can definitely help with messaging especially with uncertainty, instead of going from ‘nothing’ to an advisory. 

Whew, I actually held the above viewpoint.

BTW did you get any reports from the poconos on the icing last night? It was slick as heck this morning. Skiing became a non option let alone anything to do with driving. I would not put it at more than 1/4" but with the frozen ground the surface areas at 2000' were rock hard and slick. I spent an hour tracking the first breaks in the clouds. Once the sun popped it was like magic.....windows cleared...roads treated became passable. Right when we pulled out of the perch the winds arrived and it began raining ice from the trees. Last night there was a 20 minute thump snow followed by 30 minutes of sleet but thereafter rain. Luckily not enough to do much tree damage. Felt bad for the ski mountains, been a tough season. They had two stellar days and lost day 3.

Cheers!

 

 

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Oh gee a dt map that flies the complete opposite direction that guidance is moving. Surely he won't look like a fool once again...

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44 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Oh gee a dt map that flies the complete opposite direction that guidance is moving. Surely he won't look like a fool once again...

Huh?  How is guadance moving?

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5 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Huh?  How is guadance moving?

trending further S with the WAA snows, DC gets the brunt of it we sit under hours of virga followed by a hour or two of snow to sleet... much like last week. unless you believe in the NAM(which I don't).

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

trending further S with the WAA snows, DC gets the brunt of it we sit under hours of virga followed by a hour or two of snow to sleet... much like last week. unless you believe in the NAM(which I don't).

So your going against every loca forecast

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gfs_asnowd_neus_9.png

 

includes sleet so you can chop this fv3 map in half

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_9.png

 

same with cmc cut in half

 

gem_asnow_neus_9.png

 

rgem the same

 

rgem_asnow_neus_48.png

 

overall 1-3" seems like a great bet but don't see 3-6 over that large of a region at all but everyone is entitled to hug their model of choice. I've been burned by the nam too often to believe it when it stands on it's own and other guidance is shifting south.

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1 minute ago, Stormman96 said:

So your going against every loca forecast

if people are calling for 3-6 region wide, then yes, yes I am. Sleet will come in quicker than people anticipate. LV is the only spot I'd put in the 3-6" range. 1-3" south of there because of sleet. The NAM is the only one that would verify 3-6" region wide. I don't buy it.

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Unless one of those heavy bands set up above the Mason dixon line before the precip switches, I agree with iceman.  We'd need 1" + snowfall rates for a short while to accumulate 3-6 inches in the greater Philly region if it's only going to snow for around 6 or 7 hours .  North and West higher elevations of our subforum may see 4".  I dont see anyone in our subforum getting 5 or more.  Judging by last storm, the most we see is around 8 inches along the central PA MD state line. 

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Never got excited for this threat and seems to be unfolding as I had thought based on this winter's pattern and short range tendencies.

Going 1-2" here in Warminster *maybe* 3" but that is a long shot. Mid levels are torching really quickly as precip encroaches on the region. Delayed onset has been the trend last 2 or 3 runs with less of a "thump" look in general. Going to be more sleet than anything. There just isnt any really cold air around....marginal at best and in these situations marginal isnt going to keep us snow.

Eta: maybe we can score a fluke in early March otherwise most guidance says welcome spring sooner than later. 

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Hoping this doesn't trend way north. Id like to keep it a little south of where the 12k nam is now. Thinking 2-4" for me.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's been awhile since I've seen "first call" maps posted in our forum.  :D   Brave souls!

I went bold. 3-6" is still definitely possible for us.

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1 minute ago, Bosswx said:

I went bold. 3-6" is still definitely possible for us.

It may depend on where that big 'ole cold dry high sets up and if it suppresses any stuff down closer to and below the Mason-Dixon line before the WAA comes swarming in.  My dp is 14 right now.

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15 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

New NAM looks a lot like current NWS forecast - the one thing I do see and agree with is more to the west and especially southwest with this one. I expect quite a bit of the snow accumulation to come from sleet during the mid afternoon on - lots of nowcasting tomorrow

 

1540881927_12zNAM2_19_19.thumb.jpg.69e51a9ef6e3c4a076ea14a0e6603b11.jpg

can't go by that, it includes sleet. however an interesting thing is the meso models at 12z all hold the cold air in place because they get precip in by 15z or so. Legit all 3 are very solid hits and would verify 3-6". However they are notorious for being too cold. I still think this will turn into a mostly sleet event. Will be a fun event to watch unfold regardless. Definitely want to she a shift in the globals though and not have only the NAM and Meso's on our side. 

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12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

can't go by that, it includes sleet. however an interesting thing is the meso models at 12z all hold the cold air in place because they get precip in by 15z or so. Legit all 3 are very solid hits and would verify 3-6". However they are notorious for being too cold. I still think this will turn into a mostly sleet event. Will be a fun event to watch unfold regardless. Definitely want to she a shift in the globals though and not have only the NAM and Meso's on our side. 

Agreed thats' why I like 3" to 5" of snow and sleet - think at least 1" to 2" of that snow will be from what could be some heavy accumulating sleet during the late PM tomorrow

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hmmm GFS and FV GFS aren't quite there but it took a step towards the nam with a further N track with the WAA and precip arrives sooner. Colder as well. Good trends thus far at 12z.

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28 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

hmmm GFS and FV GFS aren't quite there but it took a step towards the nam with a further N track with the WAA and precip arrives sooner. Colder as well. Good trends thus far at 12z.

Lol

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