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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 06z ICON shifted its heaviest snow accums south just a tad compared to 00z

I think the ICONic has been the most hug worthy model for this event overall.

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56 minutes ago, yoda said:

First "guess" of expected snowfall accums from LWX... a bit bullish IMO

StormTotalSnow.thumb.png.ecb62940160768ea827af0a68eb5082b.png

That’s gonna bust so bad if say a euro solution comes to fruition. 

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Say! That’s the first watch for the Balt city area this year. That’s fun.

also, just a general plea/note to the board - the nature of this type of storm is that the axis of heaviest snows on model runs will continue shifting around for a bit. It isn’t great posting or analysis to grab the least snowy run or most snowy run in a given model suite and declare THAT is the run that gets it right. 

The good news is we have our first legit chance for most everyone in both beltways areas and north to see warning level snow and ice (you dc people had most all the legit fun in the January storm), maybe we could focus as a board analyzing things in the overall setup in this space today or yield the discussion to those who actually can analyze things that way rather than posting noise in an effort to claim to have been the first to be right.

i am sure we will have a storm contest - save your shrewd brilliance for there, maybe.

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Winter Storm Watches up and NWS showing 6-8 inches. Still seems like the mood in here is down...

It's gon' snow people. 

I have made my plea. Hopefully people listen.

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It’s interesting to see how things have evolved over last few days. We’ve been worried about the SE ridge versus the strong cold HP, and right now we can say both are winning! The latest NAM has the low forming and running through LA and OK rather than east/west Tennessee thanks to that strong SE ridge. But, the HP from the north has become much stronger too. So we are nicely sandwiched in between.

As a side note, these kind of setups may become more likely over time given global warming and likely impact in our area.

Back to this storm, a few days ago PSU mentioned the placement of moisture feed being narrow and we needed to wait a few days to see where it lands. I agreed noting we needed last nights storm to pull out for the models to get a better handle. Now, it looks like the moisture pull from the gulf will be plentiful so I think we worry less about where the heaviest precipitation lands, it should be region wide. Hence, why the WSW’s are now in effect.

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5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I have made my plea. Hopefully people listen.

I don’t think people are being down. I’m excited. Easily could be the subs biggest snowfall since Jan 13. I think people see what the 6z nam and 0z euro show and realize we still have 36-48 hrs before onset. That’s an eternity where a 50 mile shift could put some out of the wsw snows. It’s a weather forum. We discuss all the options. One of the options is for the heaviest snow to end up north of us and we get an advisory level event. Still snows just not as much. People are just trying to be realistic and cautious.  

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No, people rush to hug whichever particular model run fits their current posting persona. Too often of late that means cluttering up these threads with inane (if so and so run is right then game over) posts. 

Just saying, we can be better than that. 

Ive barely posted on this threat before now because I don’t tend to have the right kind of value to add. My ask would be that if people are gonna report on runs, simply report on runs if they don’t have the chops to analyze same. Hell, Zwyts is a posting luminary who can analyze with the best of any amateur and he simply reports often what the euro says without shading or worrying out loud every time. Seems like a good goal for the board to match.

in any event, my first Watch! this season. That’s exciting for those of us in Balt area. 

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Winter storm watch baby!

And I wouldn’t be so worried about it changing to rain. A solid thump, to ice, to dry slot is likely what’s coming our way. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Rgem precip slug looks like a real  good trajectory for most of the area and it's got probably the best CAD signal ......I like it 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_54.png

Wow at that wall of heavy snow in N VA. Some models dump over an inch of QPF from 6-12z. This is definitely that type of setup. Those intense rates will also keep us snow for a longer duration, before switching to ice and eventually being dry slotted. That high pressure is in New York. Near Albany. Zero chance that low pressure goes so far north if that’s the case. 

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The 0600 run of the GFS is definitely colder than previous runs the past few days for most of Wednesday.  Once the precipitation transitions to all rain later in the day, I could see the MD/PA line having a substantial ice hazard for several hours.  I have a feeling that driving conditions up there will be horrendous.   I also could see someone(yet to be determined) getting 8-12 inches out of this storm.  Looks like once it gets going in earnest, snow rates could be 1-2" an hour for awhile before the mixing kicks in.  And for future reference, the GFS is STILL showing a coastal snowstorm in the March 2nd-3rd time frame.  Amazing how it's been on the runs for almost a week.  

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? - does the Euro tend to still run a bit dry compared to other models? Or was that fixed in the latest update. Thanks. 

From what I’ve seen, nothing really has changed. The NAM is jumping a bit but all the models are in terms of where the best banding of snow will set up. North of DC is always the best bet but DC is still likely to get a solid storm... 2-5 inches and some sleet/freezing rain seems like a good forecast right now. But still 48 hours away...  things can still shift for the good or the bad. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Can anyone hazard a guess as to which model the NWS is relying on the most to make this fairly bullish forecast?

the WWFS...Wicked Weenie Forecast Suite?  that's the one I use...70% of the time it works every time

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


07d7ab396900c0ad3ae4a38e92e90127.jpg

It’s better, especially S&E.

 

I like the trends overall. It looks like we finally have cold air that has some cajones. 

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