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The Iceman

2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat

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How quick you get the snowfall in Monday can actually be a good and bad thing. If we have lower dew points, meaning drier air, then the snowfall will hit a brick wall and stop to our west. However, we will wet bulb lower for the main show Tuesday and likely hang on to a colder surface. An earlier onset means more snowfall at first, but less later on Tuesday. 

Anyway, the 18z NAM is perfect for Philly with the initial over running snows. Snow breaks out around 4pm Monday and doesn't stop until 5am Tuesday. 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Over here we have a legit shot now of having more IP than snow for the season come lunch time Tuesday. No joke. I can see 2" sleet to 1" snow.

 

 

As we have talked about quite a bit here lately - remember snow and sleet are considered the same thing for reporting purposes - because both can be shoveled - if you have 2" of sleet and 1" of snow that is actually 3" of snow

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

As we have talked about quite a bit here lately - remember snow and sleet are considered the same thing for reporting purposes - because both can be shoveled - if you have 2" of sleet and 1" of snow that is actually 3" of snow

Yes I always measured it as snow I was mainly focused on computer projections of snow when it will actually be sleet and how to estimate it. 

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Virga in Phoenixville as of 9:15pm. Weather underground has me at 7" storm total including sleet and around a half inch of rain.  We'll see if that plays out.  

 

Edit: 9:30 still virga.

Also, does WU use proprietary models for forecasts or do they adhere to a specific model suite? Their website makes it seem proprietary with their comparisons to the NWS.

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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

I still don’t understand why you all in Philly are ignoring the Euro. 

I didn't realize we were ignoring it. Personally I like what it shows, but a blend is meaningful, especially with mesos at this point (for the next 48 hours). We're not against it, lol.

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28 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Virga in Phoenixville as of 9:15pm. Weather underground has me at 7" storm total including sleet and around a half inch of rain.  We'll see if that plays out.  

 

Edit: 9:30 still virga.

Also, does WU use proprietary models for forecasts or do they adhere to a specific model suite? Their website makes it seem proprietary with their comparisons to the NWS.

You have the option to use NWS forecasts, or their proprietary algorithm that blends model suites vs real time data observations from their vast network of weather stations. That is why they have by far the most accurate weather forecasts out of any mainstream outlet. I love me some WU. 

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8 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I didn't realize we were ignoring it. Personally I like what it shows, but a blend is meaningful, especially with mesos at this point (for the next 48 hours). We're not against it, lol.

I’m only going by what I’m reading, And I am seeing more of the American models then the Euro. I have family all over SJ, and they count on me to help w forecasting lol. It’s such a close call, especially with part two. Even tho the NAM just “blinked” I still like part two potential. It’s a wait and see game now.

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54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Here's to hoping the NAM ingested some bad data or a virus at 0z. Problem is it has company the last RGEM was bad too.

 

 

Would fit seasonal trend for both of us epic collapse at last minute. Dont like how from my area thru Trenton across 195 is like a snow dome now for both systems. But this is just probably model noise. Not too concerned. Still expecting around 1" tonight and another 1-3" tomorrow night before the change.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Would fit seasonal trend for both of us epic collapse at last minute. Dont like how from my area thru Trenton across 195 is like a snow dome now for both systems. But this is just probably model noise. Not too concerned. Still expecting around 1" tonight and another 1-3" tomorrow night before the change.

Looks like I was wrong again axe this one as "that one storm" post 12z it's fallen off the proverbial cliff.

Day 8-12 up on deck to be "that one storm"

 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Looks like I was wrong again axe this one as "that one storm" post 12z it's fallen off the proverbial cliff.

Day 8-12 up on deck to be "that one storm"

 

The unicorn is en route and there is no stopping it. Wild few weeks upcoming. Hoping we cash in and more white than wet. 

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4 hours ago, anthonyweather said:

Euro looks like nam. Very little snow... ice storm N&W emoji3064.png


.

Euro definitely isnt what it once was irt accuracy. Last second caves and LR head fakes has been its specialty lately. Also u were cautioned last night this was more ice than snow event. 

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Winter Weather Advisory in effect for my area from midnight tonight thru 7 pm tomorrow for 2-4" of snow and a light glaze of ice.

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Euro definitely isnt what it once was irt accuracy. Last second caves and LR head fakes has been its specialty lately. Also u were cautioned last night this was more ice than snow event. 



No I know, but NWS seems to disgress, at least for the Lehigh valley


.

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I'm not expecting much snow for the Lehigh Valley and Berks. The confluence absolutely kills any northward progression of the precip shield this afternoon. In return, we get colder dews, better wet bulbing, and a colder surface for overnight and Tuesday. So my call would be 2-4" of snow then to a rather prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain. I'd expect this to be more of a sleet storm than anything else. 

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I'm not expecting much snow for the Lehigh Valley and Berks. The confluence absolutely kills any northward progression of the precip shield this afternoon. In return, we get colder dews, better wet bulbing, and a colder surface for overnight and Tuesday. So my call would be 2-4" of snow then to a rather prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain. I'd expect this to be more of a sleet storm than anything else. 


Not even sure LV breaks 1-2”, sleet and ZR going to cause big issues I suspect


.

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2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 


Not even sure LV breaks 1-2”, sleet and ZR going to cause big issues I suspect


.

 

Yeah with precip holding off longer, it'll allow for the warm push to creep further north. Once precip does begin I expect a quick flip to sleet and ice. I think the surface will remain locked in until at least 2 or 3 pm, maybe longer. So prolonged sleet and ice the main impacts. Tomorrow's commute will be very dicey.

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33 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yeah with precip holding off longer, it'll allow for the warm push to creep further north. Once precip does begin I expect a quick flip to sleet and ice. I think the surface will remain locked in until at least 2 or 3 pm, maybe longer. So prolonged sleet and ice the main impacts. Tomorrow's commute will be very dicey.

Do you still have light snow? It looks like the precip is hitting a wall from temple north 

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