• Member Statistics

    15,774
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    TruthSeeker2020
    Newest Member
    TruthSeeker2020
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
AMZ8990

February 2019 Winter Speculation

Recommended Posts

Some other may have already have mentioned this, but not a bad set up at day 8 - 9 on EPS. TPV departing and getting close to a 50/50 position, confluence in NE, a high to our north. Not perfect verbatim now, but as we've all seen, we don't want perfection at day 9 and preferable NW trend wiggle room. We have it for now on the EPS. 

giphy.gif 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The huge trends(to the good) on the EPS continue again today.  The ridge in the middle of the country is gone.  The oranges and blues are in the right spot by the end of the run...pretty much sums it up.  The EPS is likely playing games in the southwest again late in the run w BN heights...which means most of that moves into the eastern trough.  "Better than good" trends.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And yes, with an Arctic front draped over the East(east to west), there is a window for a storm to run that boundary at any point...maybe even more than one, but let's begin with trying to reel in one.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And yes, with an Arctic front draped over the East(east to west), there is a window for a storm to run that boundary at any point...maybe even more than one, but let's begin with trying to reel in one.  

That would be fantastic. I just looked at all the EPS members snow depth through 6 am on Feb 2nd and there were several big dogs for most of the forum area. The control was pretty insane as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Wurbus said:

That would be fantastic. I just looked at all the EPS members snow depth through 6 am on Feb 2nd and there were several big dogs for most of the forum area. The control was pretty insane as well.

Arctic front snow and storms riding those boundaries are why folks like El Nino years.  Get the cold and the moisture is most likely going to be there.  Big coastals are also part of the reason as well...I suspect the EC sees 2-3 before this season is over.  This trough is likely going to reset the storm track over the US.  So, it will be interesting as to where the track sets up shop.  No guarantees...but maybe the backloaded winter is about to show up?

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

0Z GFS looks juicier than the 18Z so far for the Tues event.

You could tell at 500 it was more 12z like than 18z.  It generally matches the 12z op and the ensembles from 18z, which is a good thing.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

You could tell at 500 it was more 12z like than 18z.  It generally matches the 12z op and the ensembles from 18z, which is a good thing.

If we could get this to verify...  Those ratios of course start on the low end but would rapidly rise through the whole event as modeled.  Would be a fun storm, but part of me worries about getting excited for what is essentially anafrontal snow with as many times as they have been complete let downs.  I can count on 1 hand how many times I got more than 2" of snow IMBY in an anafrontal scenario in the last 30 years.  Maybe its just time for one to really perform for us.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frigid behind it, from 120-156, a good chunk of east tn hovers from negative to single digits, colder in swva. Wow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Reb said:

Canadian similar to icon. Huge totals

Good lord, tonights runs are a thing of beauty

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

If we could get this to verify...  Those ratios of course start on the low end but would rapidly rise through the whole event as modeled.  Would be a fun storm, but part of me worries about getting excited for what is essentially anafrontal snow with as many times as they have been complete let downs.  I can count on 1 hand how many times I got more than 2" of snow IMBY in an anafrontal scenario in the last 30 years.  Maybe its just time for one to really perform for us.  

This used to be common in my experience. Rain changing to heavy accumulating snow was common. Not so much lately. But we've had a couple of big events imby at least, with anafrontal moisture. Memorable ones were in 1985, 1994,  and December  2010. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This used to be common in my experience. Rain changing to heavy accumulating snow was common. Not so much lately. But we've had a couple of big events imby at least, with anafrontal moisture. Memorable ones were in 1985, 1994,  and December  2010. 

This, exactly this! It’s old school and I remember several events from my youth in middle TN.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

This, exactly this! It’s old school and I remember several events from my youth in middle TN.

 

22 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This used to be common in my experience. Rain changing to heavy accumulating snow was common. Not so much lately. But we've had a couple of big events imby at least, with anafrontal moisture. Memorable ones were in 1985, 1994,  and December  2010. 

I remember many rain to snow events that dropped good snows, but most of those I remember were not anafrontal like what is modeled, I remember SLPs passing close enough to be rain in the valley over to wrap around snow/trowl that performed really well just can't pinpoint many plain jane anafrontal events.  I remember a few surprise anafrontal events I think I remember that one in 94, and another in the early 2000's that even seemed to catch MRX off guard in terms of their forecast.  I just don't remember many that were anafrontal moisture in the great valley that is, but I am down for however mother nature wants to deliver the goods.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

 

I remember many rain to snow events that dropped good snows, but most of those I remember were not anafrontal like what is modeled, I remember SLPs passing close enough to be rain in the valley over to wrap around snow/trowl that performed really well just can't pinpoint many plain jane anafrontal events.  I remember a few surprise anafrontal events I think I remember that one in 94, and another in the early 2000's that even seemed to catch MRX off guard in terms of their forecast.  I just don't remember many that were anafrontal moisture in the great valley that is, but I am down for however mother nature wants to deliver the goods.  

What did you get around Christmas 2010? I seen to recall that being a stout clipper that went from freezing rain to heavy snow with a lot of its moisture behind the front. The arctic air squeezes out every bit of moisture. I've gotten 4-8 inches from anafrontal events. I'll have to look more at them. I think we had one in 2014 as well, with snow falling with temps in the low 10s. They may just be more common here with upslope components. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, John1122 said:

What did you get around Christmas 2010? I seen to recall that being a stout clipper that went from freezing rain to heavy snow with a lot of its moisture behind the front. The arctic air squeezes out every bit of moisture. I've gotten 4-8 inches from anafrontal events. I'll have to look more at them. I think we had one in 2014 as well, with snow falling with temps in the low 10s. They may just be more common here with upslope components. 

Yeah I remember the one in 2010, but I don't think I got more than 2" from that one here at my house.  I really only remember that one because of the crazy cold that followed and the inlet on Watts Bar Lake that I live on completely freezing then snow on the ice making for a surreal scene for this part of the country.  Reminded me of my childhood in Michigan that year with the ice on the lake here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MJO is settling into a cold phase, at least today. Accounting for the time lag, it is worth something even for the extended forecast.

After the cold dump and possible snow (January thread) weekly forecasts agree on that break Feb 5-10 give or take. Both reload and redeliver cold starting mid-Feb. Seems reasonable based on the MJO now and forecast, lingering effects of the SSW, and good agreement. 

Weeks 3-4 also show more rain in the Deep South. It is a much better look than the brown blob over the Tennessee Valley. Perhaps rain Deep South is snow Mid-South and Tennessee Valley.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ensembles(particularly the GEFS and EPS) have again flipped to a strong eastern ridge (progressively stronger w each day beginning at roughly d8) with a trough in the West.  It is almost a similar look to the previous two strat splits.  And no, that is likely not a good thing at this time of year.  That would simply prolong the return of spring which, after last year, I am not a fan of(not a fan of super cold springs).  Hopefully the LR modeling flips again to a favorable pattern as modeling seems to be doing this every 3-4 days(some hyperbole intended).  I noticed it yesterday, but wanted to give the models a day or so to work things out.  Honestly, I am not sure how much I buy into the LR right now.  Has been an understandably tough winter for LR guidance as there have been mixed signals from the western Pacific all winter.  I did want to note the change since I had previously been somewhat bullish.  We'll see how it plays out, but I am definitely not as bullish this AM or as confident in a prolonged winter pattern for February.  Now, that does not mean that it can't snow.  One big snow, and nobody remembers the rest of winter.  So, time will tell.  Either way, enjoy your weekend.  Have a great Saturday.  I am still somewhat interested in next weekend BTW and the time frame surrounding it.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ensembles(particularly the GEFS and EPS) have again flipped to a strong eastern ridge (progressively stronger w each day beginning at roughly d8) with a trough in the West.  It is almost a similar look to the previous two strat splits.  And no, that is likely not a good thing at this time of year.  That would simply prolong the return of spring which, after last year, I am not a fan of(not a fan of super cold springs).  Hopefully the LR modeling flips again to a favorable pattern as modeling seems to be doing this every 3-4 days(some hyperbole intended).  I noticed it yesterday, but wanted to give the models a day or so to work things out.  Honestly, I am not sure how much I buy into the LR right now.  Has been an understandably tough winter for LR guidance as their have been mixed signals from the western Pacific all winter.  I did want to note the change since I had previously been somewhat bullish.  We'll see how it plays out, but I am definitely not as bullish this AM or as confident in a prolonged winter pattern for February.  Now, that does not mean that it can't snow.  One big snow, and nobody remembers the rest of winter.  So, time will tell.  Either way, enjoy your weekend.  Have a great Saturday.  I am still somewhat interested in next weekend BTW and the time frame surrounding it.

Believe the GEFS could be right into in it's long range.There looks to be some ridging building into N/S Korea and the Sea of Japan around next Saturday.Some signs the PNA will go negative into the end or start of wk 1 and 2 respectively.But how warm it will get is another thing we'll have to see.The ridge will just be passing thru by the looks right now.

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.