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February 2019 Winter Speculation

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Here is our 2019 February winter thread.  I hope February is a month to remember for all of us across the forum in regards to wintry weather.  We have a lot of moving pieces directing our February outlook so here’s to hoping we can start to get more clarity as we go forward.  MJO is moving through phase 5 but it should be in phase 6 within the next few days so hopefully that translates well for us going forward.  

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I'm 60/40 cold. Previously I posted 50/50 in the other thread. On the broadest scale, we are still in El Nino. True 50/50 seems to break mild in the South. However with El Nino, I will slightly lean toward return of cold. See if I can quote from another thread:

February fork in the road... Mild for a few days maybe 5-10 Feb. What next? Start spring like 2018 or reload like 2015... Indonesia convection is a disturbing warm signal.  However central Pac convection is retrograding toward that Dateline sweet spot for cold here. 

Finally a cold front reached the Philippines... Jet stream could block Indonesia connection. Or the risk is that the convection actually enhances the whole pineapple express. Models are apparently struggling just as we humans are. Time will tell. I'm really split 50/50.

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51 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Started a new thread and the GFS on TT doesn't look like it has initialized yet.  I think it's already working...  Here's to snowy mojo starting on the 12z suite.

  That has to be a good omen!!

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Really interesting to hear about that Philippine cold front. MJO is chugging along like a train too, on forecasts that had it stalling out again. Already doing much better than the last time we were in Indonesia:

giphy.gif

Not so much concerned with where it's depicted to go (models have been pretty bad on it outside of 5 days IMO) in this image, as with how quickly it's moving. 

Took 10 days last month to get where it has in 5 this month.

Something else to think about with that EPS run. Lot of confusion on this plot at the end, confusion that could lead to some big outliers among the 50 members. If it keeps moving along that smoothed out blend we see now (even as it stands giving us on average AK/ PNA ridge and E. trough), may look a whole lot better when we get to 15 days in the future. 

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15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If it keeps moving along that smoothed out blend we see now (even as it stands giving us on average AK/ PNA ridge and E. trough), may look a whole lot better when we get to 15 days in the future. 

  Was thinking the same thing earlier when I was looking at it.  

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sorry just saw we Febuary'd it. 

 

The EPS is like the little engine that could: "I think I can, I think I can, I think I can". 

 giphy.gif 

Huge and I mean huge improvement.  Yes, there are AN heights underneath it but no more than a couple of slightly AN days.  That is a major correction with the western ridge holding in place.  If the correction continues.....that trough deepens in the East.  I...like...it!

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Basically, the EPS went from a pattern that was bordering on hostile towards a winter wx pattern...and moved in the direction of one that works.  Need a few more steps and not revert during later runs.  And it is important to remember that the EPS has had issues with not deepening troughs in the LR.  Will be interesting to see if that looks amplifies some.

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Interestingly, the clusters are split...half warm and half cold late in the run.  Either that look is going to get a lot warmer or a whole lot colder as the cluster begins to orient towards reality.  Still, for the mean to move in the positive direction is a nice plus.  

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The first slide is the 5 day 500 pattern for days 10-15 from 12z yesterday...

1194862714_ScreenShot2019-01-23at5_12_57PM.png.b6f74fec1427b17382ffe0f21c35d1f3.png

Below is 5day 12z today...

607206051_ScreenShot2019-01-23at5_12_42PM.png.c5e786d765a9bebd5e3a0b3605335536.png

Ridge going up out west.  The BN heights over the NWT have lessened.  There are BN heights in the Aleutians.  If this looks holds, the trough at 12z today will likely deepen.  The reason so many are talking about this is that this look(if it amplifies) will extend winter well into February.  If it does not hold...more meh.

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Interested in the 27th-1st timeframe, we have had an active southern jet but with the EPO wandering between slightly positive to negative, we have also been flooded with warm Pacific air. Both the GFS and Euro are finally tanking the EPO to around -5. On the control of the weeklies it tanks again for a longer period around Feb 15 timeframe. Past winters have shown how the EPO can trump everything if it can go negative enough. 

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6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Interested in the 27th-1st timeframe, we have had an active southern jet but with the EPO wandering between slightly positive to negative, we have also been flooded with warm Pacific air. Both the GFS and Euro are finally tanking the EPO to around -5. On the control of the weeklies it tanks again for a longer period around Feb 15 timeframe. Past winters have shown how the EPO can trump everything if it can go negative enough. 

I think the Arctic front next Tuesday and thereafter will be interesting for sure.  The 18z GFS was a decent run...

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Need that ridging in the Pacific to maintain. It mutes the effects of the MJO's bad phases on sensible weather when it's in place. So we hopefully won't feel many effects in 12-15 days from it being in unfavorable areas lately.

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I'm almost willing to bet (almost lol) that it won't be in unfavorable areas in 15 days, or will be in COD. 

EDIT, I see what you're saying now. We get the effects in 12 - 15 days for where it is now. Apologies. 

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Last month (Dec since this is Feb thread), SOI really started to plummet when the MJO transitioned from 5 - 6. Will be interested to see if it played out that way again. Almost there.  

The lower the MSLP pressure is in Tahiti and the closer the convection to there and not Darwin, the better. 

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Still rolling through the phases. Again, could care less what is convection forecast is at this point (it changes more than the Fv3), I know it does matter, but for the purpose of this post, just noting how quickly it is progressing. 

We've now covered in 6 days, what took us 16 in Dec. 

giphy.gif 

 

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Seems like the front is coming through faster and the cold air isn't catching up in time for Tuesday's system,much like the last system.Not very exciting looking right now by the trends for our parts of the Valley :( 

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10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Seems like the front is coming through faster and the cold air isn't catching up in time for Tuesday's system,much like the last system.Not very exciting looking right now by the trends for our parts of the Valley :( 

Amounts may vary run to run I would say

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19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

UKMET looks hopeful for your part of the state, @jaxjagman maybe the Euro will follow:

giphy.gif 

only 5 days to go now, we've broken the 7 day barrier on something besides the Fv3 and GFS!

 

We'll have to see

 

Day 5 Fronts and Pressures

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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

In order to lower confusion...might not hurt to put the Tuesday event stuff in the January thread.  Your call.  Just a thought.  

It's fairly easy to confuse any winter post with as many winter threads we got going on now

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Nice PNA ridge hooking into a -NAO on the GEFS for days 10-15.   Much improved look from just a few days ago.  As another poster pointed out, the d10 Euro OP looks fairly stable and would likely continue to deliver cold into the US.  

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