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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FV3 has the follow up wave.  I guess we all can look for what solution we want and call it whatever we want.

Enjoy what's left of your foot of snow.  

I'll go slide around on the frozen puddle in my brown backyard.

 

 

Ehh most we had on ground was 8 ish...was off in measuring and pawatch had closer to 6. Okay year up here, but climo wise we do great with low end warning events but fail at huge snow events. Trade off I guess.

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31 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

5 years of double digit (or close to it) differences seems like a lot but summer differences should probably be expected with the less stratiform nature of thunderstorms.   

 

The data certainly needs cleaned up some more.  I saw some obvious errors in there in the winter time.  I tried to quickly clean it up by taking out all the dates where KCXY was missing an observation (KMDT did not have any missed precipitation daily observations in the time frame) in order to show the general pattern.  Almost all the large (if not all) differences were due to convective events (many tropical in nature), but it is a marked pattern I have observed.  Looking at the terrain maps, nothing jumps out at me right away.  I wish I knew someone knowledgeable enough regarding reasons for consistent microclimate differences to take a look at the data, local geography, prevailing patterns, etc to better explain it.  I have a hunch it just has to do with regional tendencies where coastal fronts like to set-up for whichever reasons, and act like a trigger for convective activity, but who knows. 

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18 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

T-Minus 10 min until Nut or Blizzard post the Euro snowfall totals. 

This guy only has freebies.  I know where to find them if needed though.

In truth.....I'm afraid to look :P

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

This guy only has freebies.  I know where to find them if needed though.

In truth.....I'm afraid to look :P

Almost 2 feet at State College.  Looks like 4-10" for much of the LSV.  On its own right now with a solution that is bang/bang as to cold air and precip getting here. 

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43 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Almost 2 feet at State College.  Looks like 4-10" for much of the LSV.  On its own right now with a solution that is bang/bang as to cold air and precip getting here. 

Wow....just went to my other hangout.... 

Even though verbatim I once again will reside in Shaftville for this one, I'm true to my CTP brethren/chickas and will it to happen just like it shows for all of you.  500 panel shown in the MA forum is boom worthy and with a little more luck could be real nice.

I still feel better times are coming though, as typical nina climo suggests, but for all that hate my love of snow, if the next couple weeks don't pan out, I may make an early departure to the cave this year.  I don't have the fight in me like i used to to will stuff in for us...and will lick my wounds and bail.  Warmies can then add another consecutive year to there crapper winter streak and can dance in the streets all they want.  I just don't want to see it.  I've seen it plenty, but I'll have my 9 months of therapy to heal.

 

12zeurosnowfall.gif.063db8a88c405cd3f6ce9f827dec9228.gif

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26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Wow....just went to my other hangout....

Boy will this piss off some. 

Even though verbatim I once again will reside in Shaftville for this one, I'm true to my CTP brethren/chickas and will it to happen just like it shows for all of you.  500 panel shown in the MA forum is boom worthy and with a little more luck could be real nice.

I still feel better times are coming though, as typical nina climo suggests, but for all that hate my love of snow, if the next couple weeks don't pan out, I may make an early departure to the cave this year.  I don't have the fight in me like i used to to will stuff in for us...and will lick my wounds and bail.  Warmies can then add another consecutive year to there crapper winter streak and can dance in the streets all they want.  I just don't want to see it.  I've seen it plenty, but I'll have my 9 months of therapy to heal.

 

12zeurosnowfall.gif.063db8a88c405cd3f6ce9f827dec9228.gif

One thing you can be 100% sure of is the Greater Pittsburgh area will not be getting 10-13 inches of snow. Everything else is in play.

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2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

One thing you can be 100% sure of is the Greater Pittsburgh area will not be getting 10-13 inches of snow. Everything else is in play.

It’s a Miller B so yeah normal caveats apply. I feel you as we both struggle with these deals.  Little more neg tilt and stalling and it could get you and I in the game  

Sounds like the Euro has another on its heels. Hoping the weekend  keeps this alive and not DOA. 

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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

GFS is way to go until Euro beats it...hoping we all get a nice snow soon...would gladly give up totals to have nice powdery snow.

as it often does better w/ NS disturbances, yeah its a concern.  FV3 had some look for the trailer idea, but it needs to start showing it soon if its gonna happen.  

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

as it often does better w/ NS disturbances, yeah its a concern.  FV3 had some look for the trailer idea, but it needs to start showing it soon if its gonna happen.  

I'm all in for whatever gets us snow brother, make it happen lol. I'll take 3 to 5 powder over warm mix stuff any day.

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Myself I like seeing events where we all get snow or the southern tier can even have it. This last event I would have gave it to anybody. 

One of the hardest snow events I have had to clean up. And I got the equipment.

what I do hate is 40 for a storm then the next morning below zero.

 

Free Euro 

 

 

 

image.jpg

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

I'm all in for whatever gets us snow brother, make it happen lol. I'll take 3 to 5 powder over warm mix stuff any day.

absolutely, but when your beggin down here, as long as it accumulates, I DGAF what it comes as.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Ehh most we had on ground was 8 ish...was off in measuring and pawatch had closer to 6. Okay year up here, but climo wise we do great with low end warning events but fail at huge snow events. Trade off I guess.

I thought you got 18" or something big last year didnt you?

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

17 and yeah dude it's your turn for 15+ for sure.

ehhh - I think im giving up.

Might be time to move to Florida.

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7 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Wow....just went to my other hangout.... 

Even though verbatim I once again will reside in Shaftville for this one, I'm true to my CTP brethren/chickas and will it to happen just like it shows for all of you.  500 panel shown in the MA forum is boom worthy and with a little more luck could be real nice.

I still feel better times are coming though, as typical nina climo suggests, but for all that hate my love of snow, if the next couple weeks don't pan out, I may make an early departure to the cave this year.  I don't have the fight in me like i used to to will stuff in for us...and will lick my wounds and bail.  Warmies can then add another consecutive year to there crapper winter streak and can dance in the streets all they want.  I just don't want to see it.  I've seen it plenty, but I'll have my 9 months of therapy to heal.

 

12zeurosnowfall.gif.063db8a88c405cd3f6ce9f827dec9228.gif

Hello sir! Now is not the time to even begin to think about giving up!

I will not give up until every last flake is done. Last year we got a few inches in early April !

Also, what “warmie” bad streak are you referring to... ? MDT has had Above normal snow 4 out of the last 5 years ! We have actually been on a good streak since 2014.

It is only January 25th. We have over 2 months yet to score more snow.

Also, MDT is Still currently Above normal snow for the season through today with 14.7 inches. Average seasonal snow through this date is 12.4 inches, so we actually have a 2.3 inch snow surplus!

Hopefully the Euro leads the way to more snow this week !

 

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Here is a great seasonal snow chart for Harrisburg from CTP’s website. 

The first year listed is 1980 & it ends with last year. We have been doing well in the snow department for 4 out of the last 5 years.

This year, with 14.7 inches of snow in the bank through this date, has already surpassed some of the bad years that show on this seasonal chart.

641E3557-DB55-4F91-8C6D-F2FCEC1FDED8.png

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35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hello sir! Now is not the time to even begin to think about giving up!

I will not give up until every last flake is done. Last year we got a few inches in early April !

Also, what “warmie” bad streak are you referring to... ? MDT has had Above normal snow 4 out of the last 5 years ! We have actually been on a good streak since 2014.

It is only January 25th. We have over 2 months yet to score more snow.

Also, MDT is Still currently Above normal snow for the season through today with 14.7 inches. Average seasonal snow through this date is 12.4 inches, so we actually have a 2.3 inch snow surplus!

Hopefully the Euro leads the way to more snow this week !

 

Check stats for klns. Notable diff. Sure hoping we can cash in soon. 

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FWIW, some positive thoughts from Eric Horst. He posted this on Tuesday, but I just noticed it this evening:
 

Quote

Recently, I've been asked if it will ever snow here in a significant way? I believe so, but I don't see anything imminent. What I do see is a playing field (the large-scale pattern) that's now populated with most of the necessary ingredients--they just need to come together in the right way to support a "mostly snow" storm here in Lancaster. With Arctic air making several passes at us in the coming weeks and a continuing parade of storms off the Pacific, I believe it's only a matter of time until things do time out right for a decent snow storm in our area. I certainly will NOT promise a crippling snowfall...but I'll be very surprised if we didn't get a good 6"+ storm (or two) sometime in the next four weeks.

After the upcoming midweek "mostly rain" event, Arctic air will return Friday through Sunday. A clipper system might bring us some weekend snow showers, but it doesn't look very impressive. Milder air will make a brief run at us next Monday or Tuesday ahead of another sharp Arctic blast arriving for the final days of January. While I don't see specific storm to watch for next week, this is the kind of energetic, amplifying pattern that is conducive to coastal cyclogenesis...so it's something to watch as next week nears.

My 35 years of forecasting experience tells me that this is definitely NOT a pattern to snooze over--in fact, in this kind of pattern the "big snow event" is often not apparent 7+ days away...and often only reveals itself inside of 5 days. Therefore, it's kind of a fun pattern if you like conflicting inter-agency forecasts, rumors of storms, and late-forecasted "surprise" snow. Stay tuned! --Horst

 

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4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Check stats for klns. Notable diff. Sure hoping we can cash in soon. 

Maybe the 0z Euro & EPS will cheer you & everyone else up as well ?

I’d sign up for this right now for 4-5 inches of snow by Wednesday am for the LSV !

38ED3465-2301-4023-B118-5C82C26B9FA9.png

3CC40C04-063C-46BC-B80B-32354657E2D7.png

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22 minutes ago, canderson said:

Is the polar vortex not happening? It looks cold next week but no colder than it was last weekend. Highs in the mid to upper teens don’t make a polar vortex. 

It’s going to be frigid for a few days, hopefully with a few inches of snow on the ground.

And...your trash cans will probably get blown away by the wind again!

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1 hour ago, Wilpo Snowhole said:

Looks like maybe a few inches here Monday night into Tuesday.

Welcome to the forum !

The 12z Euro & Canadian agree on snow for us on Tuesday.

We are only a few days out from a potentially nice light to moderate event.

The Euro seems to be locked in the last few runs on the LSV getting 3-5 inches of snow by Wednesday am, with maybe more for our I-80 crew.

7C946D47-AD67-4F56-A23A-3EB9873D232D.png

5161E531-BEF1-4BA8-9984-4AE251F535DC.png

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