Syrmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks torchy and wet next week for CNY. Gotta start digging into the NE bag of rationalizations pretty soon...pressing HP, arctic domes, baroclinicity, never seen a track like that before, Siberian snowcover, etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: GENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 306 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 NYZ018-036-044-045-056-PAZ039-043-044-047-292015- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0003.190129T1200Z-190130T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0007.190129T0600Z-190130T0600Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Broome-Susquehanna-Wyoming- Lackawanna-Luzerne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Cortland, Norwich, Binghamton, Hallstead, Montrose, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, and Wilkes-Barre 306 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected. Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour are possible at times Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Winds gusting up to 35 mph. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. In New York, Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Chenango and Broome counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Very cold to even dangerously cold wind chills are expected to begin late Tuesday night and continue through at least Thursday night. I’m squinting and looking super hard at all model output and I STILL don’t even see the low end of this advisory after they had 10” posted this AM. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 During this period the wintry pattern will pose three main concerns: lake effect snow, blowing snow, and dangerously cold wind chills. Lake effect snow will develop northeast of the lakes Tuesday night, with significant accumulation possible in the Buffalo metro area. An arctic front will then pass early Wednesday, which will usher in bitterly cold air into the entire region which will remain through the end of the week. Lake snows will expand in area, and generally focus east and/or northeast of the lakes. There will also be gusty winds Wednesday through Thursday, which will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard conditions are possible at times. For the details... Model guidance is in good agreement concerning the general pattern, but differs on the specifics. For example, there is no doubt that there will be some lake effect snows, and that it will be windy and cold through the period. The wind direction will determine where lake effect bands set up, and there are still minor differences among the model guidance. The most noteworthy is the 06Z/12Z NAM develops a wave along the arctic front late Tuesday night. This would shift winds to the SSW and push the Lake Erie band into Niagara County while most other guidance does not have this wave and keeps winds southwesterly. After this, a general WSW flow will persist Wednesday afternoon through Thursday before gradually weakening Thursday night into Friday. 850mb temperatures will plummet behind an arctic frontal passage on Wednesday, and will remain in the -25C to -30C range for most of the period. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough and a connection to upstream lakes will provide ample moisture for persistent lake snows during the period. One complicating factor is that Lake Erie may start to freeze up during the event. Even so, there should be ample breaks to support lake effect snow, especially considering that wave action will hinder ice growth. Off Lake Erie (including the Buffalo metro area)... Lake effect snow will develop focused near Buffalo Tuesday night and will meander north late Tuesday night before dropping southward early Wednesday. After this, the band will remain somewhere between the southtowns (West Seneca/Orchard Park and the Boston/Wyoming hills Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Lake snows will also extend well inland into Genesee and Wyoming counties due to the strong winds. There is still some uncertainty in snow amounts, but in general expect 12-18 inches across the snow belts, around a foot in downtown Buffalo, and 6-12 inches across the northtowns. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible if the band remains in one location for a long time. Snowfall rates will average 1-2 inches per hour, but cold temperatures will support snow which is very effective in lowering visibility. Amounts will be less (but potentially significant) along the Chautauqua ridge extending into Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, however the WSW flow will keep the heavy snow north of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville where there will be much less accumulation. This said, the greater impact which will be felt regardless of snow amount is the strong winds and blowing snow. Winds will be modest Tuesday night, but then increase Wednesday through Thursday, with gusts up to 40 mph. A weak ridge will build into western New York on Friday with diminishing winds bringing an end to the lake effect snow. Off Lake Ontario (including the Watertown area)... Synoptic snows will transition to lake effect on Tuesday night. Modest lake snows will initially focus across the St. Lawrence River late Tuesday night, and then intensify and shift south across Watertown on Wednesday. The heaviest snows will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening when the long fetch down Lake Ontario and orographic lift enhance snowfall rates on the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour are possible during this time. The band will gradually weaken late Thursday night into Friday, but still may produce some moderate additional snow accumulation. Snowfall amounts from lake effect are expected to be 2- 3 feet on the Tug Hill. Watertown is a tricky forecast since it`s on the northern fringe of the band, but right now it looks like 1-2 feet. Amounts will drop off considerably southward through Oswego County. This said, there will be a significant impact from strong winds and blowing snow. Winds will gust up to 40 mph Wednesday through Thursday evening, and then diminish late Thursday night into Friday. For the rest of the area (including the Rochester metro area)... It will be bitterly cold Wednesday night through Thursday with the combination of arctic air and strong winds. Highs on Wednesday will be in the morning, with temperatures falling through the single digits Wednesday afternoon and below zero in most areas by Wednesday evening. This, combined with the winds, will result in wind chill as cold as 25 to 30 below in most locations during this time. Temperatures will remain cold through Friday, but winds will diminish late in the period which will provide a modest improvement. Most of the snow during this time will be lake effect, but a pair of shortwaves may bring a few general snow showers during the day Thursday and Friday. There also is a risk that the strong winds will bring lake snows well east of Lake Erie on Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly extending into Monroe and Livingston Counties at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Ready: Redfield = 40" KSYR = 3" KFZY = 5" KROC = 1-2" KITH = 3" KBUF = 35" KALB = 10" Complete joke! Winters have changed dramatically since I've moved here 15yrs ago nevermind back in the 70-80- and 90's! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Good. That is exactly what I was talking about yesterday in regards to needing some blocking. Yikes, I enjoy a good ice storm but Ive mentally prepared myself for a nice extended warm period. I'm not sold on an ice storm/mix. I still think we flirt with upper 40s and 50s for a while I enjoy tracking spring so by this time of winter my attention turns to that. Heres a good website that gives you an idea whereabouts spring is https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 So I was able to find the raw data of ice concentration on Lake Erie before and during the January '14 event, which seems to be a good analogue to this one. 3 55.69 4 57.95 5 39.72 6 41.83 7 61.55 8 88.48 9 90.63 The lake managed to ice up very quickly, going from 40%- 90% coverage in just 2 days, despite the strong winds inhibiting ice formation. The weather service wrote they expect the wave action to break ice formation enough to keep lake effect going for the duration, but I would not be surprised if they are underestimating the lakes ability to ice over. However, their forecast snow totals are in line with the '14 event, which seems reasonable, but as hopeful as I am, I doubt areas receive more than 2'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 RLMAO, just gets better and better, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yep, have no idea what they see lol 12"+ before LES even starts east of Ontario.. We better see some 20/1 ratios then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 These maps they produce 4 times a day are a complete guess I think, seriuosly, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Down here, we will be lucky to get 2" from the SLP and then virtually nothing from the LE garbage that'll be up North, up near Matt finally, so he could stop the whining , lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: RLMAO, just gets better and better, lol! Maybe they are using a random snowfall map generator software program. Kind of like a random number generator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It has to be, for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Not so sure about that lol A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for east of Lake Ontario with 12-18 inches expected through Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 P&C Shows 8"-16" Tonight Snow showers likely between 9pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow after 11pm. Temperature rising to around 21 by 5am. Breezy, with a southeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. High near 31. Southeast wind 7 to 16 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Not so sure about that lol A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for east of Lake Ontario with 12-18 inches expected through Tuesday night. That's NEVER going to happen, NEVER ever! I also think this LE that everyone is talking about is going to be falling into super dry dense air which just doesn't like RH. We just went through this with the last event with the pixie-dust like snowfall. It was dense for sure, but I think some are getting way ahead of themselves but to each his own as that's whats best about being different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yeah, mines slightly less at 7-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: That's NEVER going to happen, NEVER ever! I also think this LE that everyone is talking about is going to be falling into super dry dense air which just doesn't like RH. We just went through this with the last event with the pixie-dust like snowfall. It was dense for sure, but I think some are getting way ahead of themselves but to each his own as that's whats best about being different. I think the LES will do better than pixie dust, especially if any multiple lake connection gets established. But yeah, you would figure such s dry air mass will limit things perhaps. Probably not too much though. Will be interesting to see unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Man I hope it does but if anyone wants action on the over or under, I'm taking bets since sports betting is legal now, or is it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I do however think its gonna snow, and snow hard even here, for a time, late tomorrow night through Wednesday morning, but the question is how far west the front slows down as a SLP gets going along it so we'll see as I think its more of a timing issue than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18z HRDPS goes to town over the metro area on Wednesday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 My PnC is 4-8" thru Tuesday night. Possibly 5-9" if you include the possible 1" overnight. I'll take the under. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: My PnC is 4-8" thru Tuesday night. Possibly 5-9" if you include the possible 1" overnight. I'll take the under. Yeah. I’m in Skaneateles and think 3” is a stretch. This is the timeframe we need to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Its truly possible that we don;t see the low end, lol, nevermind 9", lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, 96blizz said: Yeah. I’m in Skaneateles and think 3” is a stretch. This is the timeframe we need to produce. Thars a 15 minute squall line with the front, we'll be lucky to see 1-2" from that, but maybe it stalls, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 That's the CF swinging through, secondary will develop along the front but to far east for us..Thats the biggest difference from runs a couple days ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yeah, and it needs to slow down, or whatevers forming needs to bomb, but neither will happen, lol!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 37 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 18z HRDPS goes to town over the metro area on Wednesday! Where are all our metro weenies??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Ready: Redfield = 40" KSYR = 3" KFZY = 5" KROC = 1-2" KITH = 3" KBUF = 35" KALB = 10" Complete joke! Winters have changed dramatically since I've moved here 15yrs ago nevermind back in the 70-80- and 90's! Hopefully! Then I can just read your whining. 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: Yikes, I enjoy a good ice storm but Ive mentally prepared myself for a nice extended warm period. I'm not sold on an ice storm/mix. I still think we flirt with upper 40s and 50s for a while I enjoy tracking spring so by this time of winter my attention turns to that. Heres a good website that gives you an idea whereabouts spring is https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring Oh, oops, I can see how that came across as me wanting an ice storm. No thanks! I am hoping it was a start of cooling things down to less than a rainstorm. Spring is my least favorite season for sure...so I will pass on the 50s. 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: The 3K Nam makes me Every time I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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