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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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The entire region is under a Winter Storm Watch. The upcoming 5-6 weeks look extremely promising for winter lovers.

Map of Forecast Area

A deep longwave through over the entire region can be expected in the extended. This will likely deliver multiple episodes of synoptic, lake enhance and lake effect snow. I have never seen this from the CFS, has to be the first time since 2014 winter? The PV has broken into 3 pieces and one of those pieces will be stuck in between 2 ridges in Alaska and Greenland. It's a perfect setup for snow and cold for the great lakes and northeast. Exciting times ahead! 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.pngcfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43.png

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Euro also had a couple inches out in front but more on the backside as we flip back to snow.. Something to keep an eye on at least. 

download (24).png

download (25).png

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Fingers crossed Matt 

Behind this potential system, it will turn steadily colder Friday
and Saturday. A mid level trough and associated cold front will
cross the area Friday with a chance of snow showers. Westerly flow
may develop Friday night and Saturday in the wake of this trough,
with increasing lake effect snow potential east of the lakes.
Temperatures will be well below average again by next weekend

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22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm not sure how anyone can like this cold. Already at 1 degree. Can't feel my fingers in minutes outside, hurts to breath. 

I hate the cold but as long as I don’t have to be in it for long it’s a cool experience. I could do the hot water to instant ice trick 100 times and it never gets old! Haha.

  • Haha 2

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What’s impressive to me is usually when we’re this cold it’s dead calm out no winds with completely clear skies not snow falling and 26mph gust!!

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4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I hate the cold but as long as I don’t have to be in it for long it’s a cool experience. I could do the hot water to instant ice trick 100 times and it never gets old! Haha.

Not me bro. It’s my least favorite weather event. If I never see a temp below 10 again I’ll be happy. 

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I'm not sure how anyone can like this cold. Already at 1 degree. Can't feel my fingers in minutes outside, hurts to breath. 
It's the best feeling in the world to take a deep breath in subzero temp. You can almost feel your lungs get cold, lol. - 4F sustained winds of 18-23mph making the windchill -20's to 30f sometimes which is just stupid cold but I still love it bn nonetheless!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Euro still has a "favorable" west-wsw flow for Friday/Saturday.. Doesn't look like it would last long as we have several northern stream disturbances riding through the flow..

Late Thursday night and Friday a strong mid level trough and
associated surface low/cold front will cross the region, marking the
leading edge of the return to much colder temperatures. This system
will bring a chance of snow showers areawide, with potential for
lake enhancement east of the lakes.

The cold becomes well established by the weekend. Model guidance
begins to diverge with the handling of clipper shortwaves moving
through the mean longwave trough, but in a general sense one or two
weak systems will continue to support light snow chances through the
weekend. There may also be lake effect potential next weekend,
although given the model differences with the handling of the
clipper systems there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to
placement and strength.

download (26).png

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33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro still has a "favorable" west-wsw flow for Friday/Saturday.. Doesn't look like it would last long as we have several northern stream disturbances riding through the flow..

Late Thursday night and Friday a strong mid level trough and
associated surface low/cold front will cross the region, marking the
leading edge of the return to much colder temperatures. This system
will bring a chance of snow showers areawide, with potential for
lake enhancement east of the lakes.

The cold becomes well established by the weekend. Model guidance
begins to diverge with the handling of clipper shortwaves moving
through the mean longwave trough, but in a general sense one or two
weak systems will continue to support light snow chances through the
weekend. There may also be lake effect potential next weekend,
although given the model differences with the handling of the
clipper systems there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to
placement and strength.

download (26).png

This could easily become a WNW flow event too but most likely a Tug Hill event, then as the system moves through winds veer and the band drops through and heads WNW so we'll see what happens.

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It's hard to imagine with all this new snow, super cold air, that the next LP is just gonna march west of here.

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First Mike's wording is a bit convoluted...he says the region (entire area) will experience potentially heavy lake effect this upcoming weekend then says maybe parts of the metro as well...huh. The metro is part of the region as a whole and would be included in that statement. As for what I see at this timeframe is a good chance the lake effect will be buffalo and North for a good chunk of Saturday night and Sunday as the clipper looks to pass north of the great lakes bringing a more SW component.

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The one thing I also notice during these events, once they pass and the Synoptic moisture gets stripped away, ids the Sun usually shines through the low thin clouds but with the SNG being so close to the ground, almost any moisture trapped underneath the inversion, will fall as pixie dust snow as this happens quite often with a Super Arctic air mass like the one over us now!

I also notice all the models, excluding the NAM, as thats the furthest South but still not enough, as they are trying to drive a low pressure into all this snow cover over NYS with a retreating Arctic HP and its  not like its a stale air mass, cause its definitely not, so my guess is that this short lived system for Wed rides along the baroclinic zone where the deepest snow-cover lies but I may be wrong but Ive seen it too many times so we'll see.  With each subsequent run, the models are ticking South

 

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The one thing I also notice during these events, once they pass and the Synoptic moisture gets stripped away, ids the Sun usually shines through the low thin clouds but with the SNG being so close to the ground, almost any moisture trapped underneath the inversion, will fall as pixie dust snow as this happens quite often with a Super Arctic air mass like the one over us now!

I also notice all the models, excluding the NAM, as thats the furthest South but still not enough, as they are trying to drive a low pressure into all this snow cover over NYS with a retreating Arctic HP and its  not like its a stale air mass, cause its definitely not, so my guess is that this short lived system for Wed rides along the baroclinic zone where the deepest snow-cover lies but I may be wrong but Ive seen it too many times so we'll see.  With each subsequent run, the models are ticking South

 

Well, 12z NAM is running, lets see what the 12z suite brings. Hoping that we don't rain.

 

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06Z there were hugs discrepancies between the 06Z EURO and 06Z NAM also gotta check the RRGEM

681916503_download(4).png.2087a0a66e227f7f5e01aacf5c2b4376.png

1854407331_download(5).thumb.png.1acbfc210aa23387a50ea7886beee5ac.png

I have a pretty good feeling we stay all frozen but like Wolfie said, the ice threat seems the biggest right now as it'll be tough to dislodge such a dense airmass at the surface as this one is!

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Typically, I would tend to believe the EC map as that's what usually happens. Not sure how all of this deep snow pack will impact the temps. Downsloping compression is always an issue with SW winds.

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