pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think if it stays strong enough to pass through 8 and 1 it’s remote that it ever re-emerges back into 3-4-5 in any strong manner. Maybe it gets back in there in weak amplitude Nino climo on our side as well. Sure hope you are right. Makes sense logically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Starting to see my point? I am not saying early snow isn't awesome... but that just isn't how we roll. And when we do get early snow usually we get more later...but if we were to get a good December then nothing the rest of the year unless it was like a 40" December that wouldn't really be awesome, we would remember the total fail in January and February in the end. your only as good as your last month....... wait....that's what they tell me in sales. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The crops that bloomed the last month are now going to fail? My lilac bush has buds already which is just crazy. Not all over but some isolated branches clearly have buds. I just saw while taking down Christmas lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I totally understand wanting it...my point was just that judging a whole winter based on December really guarantees that 90% of our winters will be a fail as its just not our climo to have a big December. But to each their own... maybe you are that professor that doesn't believe in giving A's lol. Lol. My students would really have to earn it. High expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A combination of wasting way too much of my life researching weather data and being blessed with a good memory. I'm not that smart...I just did good in school because I was lucky enough to be able to remember things. As long as I was paying attention during a lecture or when I was reading something I didn't have to study to remember it. That's good because I was probably too busy wasting time weathering to bother to study! (and maybe partying a little too much at times) I too have a good memory....but y'all put me to shame with the finer details you can ratlle off like nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My lilac bush has buds already which is just crazy. Not all over but some isolated branches clearly have buds. I just saw while taking down Christmas lights. That is nuts. Really hasn't been all that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Pretty dramatic shift by the GEFS with its MJO forecast today...no longer does a loop to loop in Phase 7. Slower progression through 8 then into the COD. Latest from Euro is an improvement from yesterday as it no longer re-emerges in Phase 4, just meanders in the COD. A weaker wave after Phase 8 + weak ENSO wouldn’t be a bad thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Important thing is that we appear to be moving out of this Pac dominated pattern and transitioning to what we were all expecting. My feeling for a while now has been that because the Nino is a late starter/ SOI had been positive, it was going to take some time to see a legit atmospheric response. The strong MJO pulse plus the SWE were wildcards and became complicating factors. The timing of the SPV split, and the forecasted progression of the MJO both argued for more lag in the pattern evolution. I was never impressed with the possibility of sneaking in an event around New Years or into early Jan. I pretty much closed the shades and have been focusing on the idea of getting a serviceable pattern around mid month. I always try to be realistic with my expectations if nothing else, but have remained optimistic that mid-late Jan will become more favorable for winter weather around here. Totally with you on all this. I think the projected changes now have more credibility given the current changes happening in real time in the MJO and SOI as well as the SSWE. None of the positive changes we need are long range fantasy anymore, the pattern drivers are changing right now and so the projections are based on more stable ground. Hopefully that means its real this time. I also wasn't on board with having much chance with this current period. I am not a deb so I didn't want to rain on the parade for people who had optimism but I just felt until we got the change we needed in the SOI and MJO the base state of that pattern had shown itself and any significant frozen event was highly unlikely. I have had my eyes towards a true pattern change and not on trying to fluke our way to something in one of the most hostile patterns possible. I think our timetable for the pattern flip looks good. It may take another week or so after the flip before we are tracking a specific event given the crap antecedent airmass that must be dealt with before we can get legit threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: He mentions several 'baby vortexes'. Guess those daughter vortices have been busy and misbehaving under daddy PVs nose. If we can get Margisuty to call it the Big Daddy vortex...... It'd just be the Vortex Family. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 39 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Honestly cant think of one that had a great first half and bad second half. Seems to me if you have a good December, a great winter follows.... but there are so few good Decembers here the datasets is barely existant. Dec 1989 was probably a bit better in the southern mid-Atlantic. I know the South had several good storms that month. But as some others pointed out, front-loaded winters are inherently disappointing since they end so early. I think the one I remember most clearly is 2003-04. Started with a great December storm (especially in the colder burbs), had a very cold January and another good storm late that month, but then the rest of the season was a total shutout. I was very disappointed that February had no measurable snow at all, and of course March wasn't much better... I think it had a dusting at the most. Still a pretty good winter overall, but the premature end definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Pisses me off though. I can't even remember half the time what I had for dinner yesterday and these showoffs are telling me about the snow ratios, total precip, their winter outfits, etc... from a storm 15-20 years ago. That's funny because after reading this I thought back and I can remember exactly what I was doing during the 93, 96, 2003, and 2010 storms with perfect clarity. I can still picture pretty much every moment of those storms and what I was doing the whole time like it was yesterday. LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: JB has been a total emotional mess the last week. Behaving like the emotional baseline of this thread vacillating between "its coming" to total despair every model run. He must really be invested in this winter for whatever reason... no idea what, maybe its really important to JD's baby the pioneer model, maybe they are at a turning point with wxbell and their clients...maybe he is thinking he is close to the end and wants to go out on top...no idea really just speculating but for whatever reason he is really really upset at the prospect of this winter not going his way and has gone full tilt emotionally lately. Kinda almost feel bad for him....almost. Is this video or his columns? both... I don't catch all his stuff and sometimes will go a long time without bothering to watch or read him...but I was curious lately what he had to say since I know his winter forecast was similar to mine and I was wondering how he interpreted the pretty negative looks on all the guidance and I was shocked to find he was beyond rattled, being emotional and going through wild ups and downs from one video or blog post to the next the last several days. Unusual since typically if anything he will hold onto a bad forecast WAY too long and this time he seemed to hit the panic button too soon. ETA: ironically him being in a full tilt panic mode actually made me feel better that things would flip and get better. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Unusual since typically if anything he will hold onto a bad forecast WAY too long and this time he seemed to hit the panic button too soon. Busting horribly time after time will take its toll on anyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Big h5 changes where it matters on the GFS for late next week. D10 deal should come in colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's funny because after reading this I thought back and I can remember exactly what I was doing during the 93, 96, 2003, and 2010 storms with perfect clarity. I can still picture pretty much every moment of those storms and what I was doing the whole time like it was yesterday. LOL I can too, for the big events, but your recollection of less impactful events is much, much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: Dec 1989 was probably a bit better in the southern mid-Atlantic. I know the South had several good storms that month. But as some others pointed out, front-loaded winters are inherently disappointing since they end so early. I think the one I remember most clearly is 2003-04. Started with a great December storm (especially in the colder burbs), had a very cold January and another good storm late that month, but then the rest of the season was a total shutout. I was very disappointed that February had no measurable snow at all, and of course March wasn't much better... I think it had a dusting at the most. Still a pretty good winter overall, but the premature end definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. Was that a Dec 5th storm? I dont recall that December being very snowy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big h5 changes where it matters on the GFS for late next week. D10 deal should come in colder. Heh, CMC close to a very good track d9-10. Still a little too much NS influence but sig h5 changes on the CMC op too. I'll hold off until the euro before I start a thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Was that a Dec 5th storm? I dont recall that December being very snowy here. Yeah. Dec 5-6, 2003. Huge hit in the northern and western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 GFS @168 much less ridging in midwest. upper levels improved as well. As Bob suggests, its gonna look closer to something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 CAD overrunning inbound... I starting feeling more optimistic yesterday about this period and today will suck even a stubborn weenie in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pretty dramatic shift by the GEFS with its MJO forecast today...no longer does a loop to loop in Phase 7. Slower progression through 8 then into the COD. Latest from Euro is an improvement from yesterday as it no longer re-emerges in Phase 4, just meanders in the COD. A weaker wave after Phase 8 + weak ENSO wouldn’t be a bad thing. If the SOI continues negative that would be just about ideal actually...get it into cold phases to set off the pattern change, then let it get out of the way since the SST base state is just fine, we don't need the MJO to overcome anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CAD overrunning inbound... I starting feeling more optimistic yesterday about this period and today will suck even a stubborn weenie in LP and 540's move about 300 miles south of 6z. BIG step....but what does one believe? disclaimer - OP run way out there, but nice to see for soothing of the mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah. Dec 5-6, 2003. Huge hit in the northern and western burbs. Interesting. My recollection is that was a 2-3" event here. Wonder if there is a map of that storm somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the SOI continues negative that would be just about ideal actually...get it into cold phases to set off the pattern change, then let it get out of the way since the SST base state is just fine, we don't need the MJO to overcome anything. If SOI goes too negative, wouldnt that argue for suppression or would MJO in COD mute that response as cold may not overwhelm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: LP and 540's move about 300 miles south of 6z. BIG step....but what does one believe? disclaimer - OP run way out there, but nice to see for soothing of the mind. Obviously ops this far out are as reliable as a 1987 chrysler but seeing a marked shift with more confluence and suppressed flow will open some eyes. It's the only period at a reasonable lead we have to watch so going all in is prudent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Fv3 kinda squashes everything so net result is bad but check out this flow right here... Pattern change coming early? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Obviously ops this far out are as reliable as a 1987 chrysler but seeing a marked shift with more confluence and suppressed flow will open some eyes. It's the only period at a reasonable lead we have to watch so going all in is prudent. My exact thinking as well. Pattern continues to show better evolution. Good enough for me....for now. lol - you ninjad me w/ the fv3 though. I think you are right though. MJO/SSW whatever response may now be factoring in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Was that a Dec 5th storm? I dont recall that December being very snowy here. I remember Winchester got like 7" from that storm. NW VA was like 5-8" in general from that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Early January 2003 was warm at times fyi. https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/dc/washington/KDCA/date/2003-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah. Dec 5-6, 2003. Huge hit in the northern and western burbs. Wow. Thanks. Totally missed that one in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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