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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Nice mesolow over LO heading due East right for Matts house, lol!  

12+ is over the highest elevations of Madison and Onondaga counties. I would think Oswego would be on the lower end of the spectrum as far as totals are concerned but this system definitely has some surprises in store for some of us. Id imagine, if we change over before the main shield of precip moves on off to the NE of us, then we stand the best chance of seeing higher accumulations but we gotta see how this LP moves. If it moves over KALB then we stand a better chance of seeing the tail end of the Def band but it may head towards Western Mass and if that happens, then it'll shut off, and we'll have to wait for the LEnahncement to kick in later tomorrow so lots depends on this developing system to our SE.

I am watching that blossom as it heads east. Wolfie first, then me...hoping it is snow. I'll keep you updated.

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Nws has worst case scenerio 6"-8" and best case 18"-24"

I will say all the the meso models are JP the same area as the november system.. With 12"-20" for northern oswego, southern jefferson at 10-1..

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Its actually heavy here as I'm under those heavier returns down near Phoenix and Fulton but still plain rain at 37F! The temps are straight stuck on 37 and its been there for hrs and hrs, lol! Wait, my bad, it actually went up a couple ticks to 39F from WU. Dont know how accurate it is, but doesnt matter as all levels are cold enough for snow except the surface, lol! H925 is at -3C so this warm air right off the deck has to be deep enough to change whatever is falling over to rain, wow. Models, like you said last night, between 4:30-5 and it looks like the models were off by a few ticks so a great job so far with thermals from the guidance!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Good luck everyone as it looks like there's really not gonna be a lull like I first thought as that's what usually happens, lol, but not this year as everything that should happen just doesn't!

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah, normally this is a good look but it is forced to transfer and jets ENE..

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

This should come further North as soon as the GFS gets a clue!  It was nowhere near us a day ago now its down over PA but man, that HP is in a perfect place for East Coast Cyclogenesis, so I think this one needs to be watched carefully as the models haven't a clue yet, and won't,  until we head into a pattern change the next week.  That's usually a time period when models statistically don't do so good as there's quite a bit going on when a large scale pattern change ensue's. Not saying it heads up into the GOM but a BM track is still quite plausible I'd imagine so we'll see I suppose.  At least there's action!

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I already see I'm screwed along with Brian and Phoenixwx, lol!  To main bands one just to our North and on to our South with subsidence in between, lol, blowing exhaust for 2 days while everyone around us snows except that strip I just mentioned, lol!

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Blah lol

Not a huge fan on how this one is starting..

Coming down nicely at the moment, been keeping track of the hrrr which has most of the heaviest stuff just to my east, KFZY would be lucky to see an inch by midnight if it was correct..

Radar doesn't look great at the moment..As most of this stuff will probably miss me to the east with nothing behind it for the moment..

 

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Temps slowly dropping, down to 33.5 according to the nearest WU station..Flake size has increased as well..Obviously very wet in nature..

We need to drop down towards freezing soon..

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A solid 1/2" out at the cabin overnight (almost managed to get the ground covered), with raging mostly cloudy skies on the way to work.

A fierce winter storm storm warning for heavy lake effect snow indeed.

Winterless winter continues, my bitterness level trending north.

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Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...it will be a bit of a different
story initially as the airmass across that lake will really
not become cold enough for true lake effect to develop until
later this afternoon or early this evening. Instead...the bulk
of any snows for a good chunk of today will be more orographically-
enhanced in nature and primarily found east of Lake Ontario on
a general northwesterly flow...with accumulations of as much as
4 to 8 inches found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill
and western slopes of the Adirondacks...while lower amounts of
2 to 4 inches will be more common across the lower elevations.

To the southeast of Lake Ontario...a narrow swath of relatively
drier air and the lack of a sufficiently cold airmass will likely
preclude much in the way of lake effect until later this afternoon...
after which time increasingly colder air...deepening moisture...
and an increasingly northwesterly fetch will allow lake effect
snows to develop and then continue right through tonight. With
some directional shear in place and with less terrain enhancement
to work with...the Lake Ontario lake snows will likely be less
impressive than their Lake Erie counterparts...but will probably
still be organized enough to produce a general 3-6" across Monroe/
Ontario counties between late today and tonight...with as much as
5-8" falling during this same time frame across the Wayne-Northern
Cayuga-Southern Oswego county corridor. Meanwhile further to the
north...continued orographically-driven snows will likely produce
another 4-7" across the higher terrain of the rest of the eastern
Lake Ontario region tonight...with another 2-4" likely across the
lower elevations.

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I love how i'm grouped in with the tug hill when im not lol

"foothills", "gateway", "tug hill region" sure but not actually on the hill lol

Today
Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 10am. High near 34. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 22. West wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 22. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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