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pasnownut

Central PA - Winter 2018-19

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36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That might be true, but if you remember that little story I wrote 2 years ago called "A Day in the Life of the Central PA forum" I mentioned you in that story as getting snow 37 days in a row. :) 

That is repost worthy. We all could use a good laugh while we wait. 

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5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

EBT is closed except for I think a winter run the week after Thanksgiving. Rockhill Trolley Museum still functions a bit.

Signed,

Grew up in Orbisonia

Now that's what I'm talking about! Man, I remember as a kid there wasn't a better trip around than heading west to the EBT and Horseshoe Curve. Lots of great memories...

Sorry everyone - back to tracking the storm! 

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10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Now consider a snowpack for Monday night. Somebody going negative.

Was thinking the same thing. Especially if winds die down fast enough. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

That is repost worthy. We all could use a good laugh while we wait. 

Some of the names have changed but this still mostly fits:

A Day in the Life of the Central PA Thread

 

 

 

·         12:15am – Blizzard Of 93 shares that the 0z GGEM indicated that all of Central PA looked to pick up over a 1’ of snow in the next 48 hours

 

·         12:20am – Wmsptwx says that he’s out on this one, enjoy it southern tier guys lol

 

·         12:25am: - Blizzard of 93 says that the 0z UKIE shows a coastal hugger with 2’ storm totals over true Central PA, with a 1’ in the Susquehanna Valley before any changeover

 

·         12:26am – Wmsptwx says he’s not expecting more than a nuisance inch or two lol, using the 12z Egyptian model from the day before as his reasoning.

 

·         12:35am - JM1220 pops in from Long Island to say how happy he is that State College is in the bulls-eye this time around

 

·         12:45am – Canderson says he doubts Harrisburg gets more than 8” from the storm, then reports seeing 2 trees down on Front Street from the wind. I go back through previous years of posts and determine he’s now seen upwards of 300 trees come down on Front Street.

 

·         1:10am – Wmsptwx notes that the 0z EURO is off the coast and only brings significant snowfall  south and east of 81, and he’s out of this one lol

 

·         1:15am – Blizzard of 93 says the mean for KMDT is now 15” with the latest model runs factored in

 

·         2:00am – MAG5035 gives an update on the storm, says he believes that warning criteria snow makes it as far back as the UNV-IPT corridor. Says southern tier could receive up to 2’

 

·         2:15am – Millvillewx comes in from MD and says he wishes he was back at Millersville for this one

 

·         3:30am – MAG5035 says the 6z NAM is super juiced and shows a 4’ bulls eye over South Mountain

 

·         5:05am – Voyager wonders why Tamaqua has to be on the dividing line once again

 

·         5:45am – Sauss06 comes online and says “how are we looking?”

 

·         6:15am – Canderson quotes Sauss and says he doesn’t think KMDT receives more than 8” from the storm

 

·         6:30am – Wmsptwx says the 6z GFS is way south and east, even the southern tier isn’t safe anymore lol

 

·         6:45am – Pasnownut gets posters in the mid-Atlantic thread all riled up because they think he’s trolling them

 

·         7:00am – 2001kx reports a random snow shower set up over his house overnight dropping a fresh 2”. He attaches a picture of his yard. I mentally note that he’s received measurable snow now for 37 consecutive days.

 

·         7:30am - Atomixwx posts something about the alcohol he consumed last night

 

·         7:40am – Canderson reports his family is experiencing a major ice storm down in Texas. I wonder how he ever became a Red Sox fan

 

·         7:45am – Wmsptwx says he’s not feeling this one, but the southern tier should be good for a crippling snow storm lol. I’m wondering if he forgot his post from just over an hour ago.

 

·         7:50am – Maytownpawx says that Horst says this storm still has huge bust potential

 

·         7:55am – Canderson replies to my post and says he bets Harrisburg gets 4” or less

 

·         8:00am – Sauss06 says that whatever we do get, the beer is going to taste really good during the storm

 

·         8:10am – Allweather says all systems are go for a major southern PA dump, but north and west of 81 is still a bit uncertain

 

·         8:15am – Wmsptwx replies to Allweather and says yeah, we’re on the outside looking in on this one, lol

 

·         9:30am – Pasnownut shares that the 12z NAM is showing 1’ totals back to UNV, with 2’-3’ over the lower Susquehanna Valley

 

·         9:35am – Wmsptwx says all he wants is warm weather, but if it’s going to snow it might as well snow a lot lol

 

·         9:40am – Sauss06, after seeing the NAM, says he better stock up on beer

 

·         9:45am – Canderson reports strong wind gusts on his way to work this morning

 

·         9:50am – Maytownpawx copies and pastes a tweet from Horst saying Lanco could get anywhere from 4” up to 24”.

 

·         10:40am – Wmsptwx posts that the 12z GFS shows a wicked cutoff at I-81. Says he’s glad he doesn’t like snow, lol

 

·         11:00am – 2001kx is still reporting snow falling, even though satellite pictures suggest that he’s under the only cloud over the entire state

 

·         11:15am – Maytownpawx reposts another tweet from Horst

 

·         11:25am – Heavywx posts something about thermal profiles and dendritic structures for the storm. I read this excitedly.

 

·         11:26am – I silently think to myself “what in the heck did Heavywx just say?”

 

·         11:40am – Wmsptwx says the 12z GGEM shifted south and east from 0z lol

 

·         11:55am – Wmsptwx says that now the 12z UKIE shifted south and east lol

 

·         12:00pm – I remind Williamsport that the 0z UKIE was way more amped and inland than any other model.

 

·         12:10pm – Atomixwx says something about if it’s not going to snow much, at least he’s going to drink

 

·         12:15pm – Pasnownut says he hopes this storm gets everyone good, even though he knows deep down in…it won’t

 

·         12:45pm – Sauss06 reports he froze his ass off going out for lunch

 

·         12:47pm – Canderson says it feels even colder in the wind

 

·         1:05pm – Millvillewx says the 12z EURO is a whopper for most of eastern PA

 

·         1:10pm – Wmsptwx says he expects an inch, and then asks any red taggers if they actually think if IPT can get into appreciable snow. Conveniently, they all ignore him.

 

·         1:45pm – Maytownpawx shows a map made by Horst. It shows double the amount of snow south of Rt. 30 compared to north of there.

 

·         1:50pm – Superstorm approves of Horst’s map

 

·         2:15pm – Atomixwx wants to know what everyone is drinking that night

 

·         2:17pm – Sauss lists several beers he’ll be drinking

 

·         2:45pm – Voyager says he fears a hole in the radar over his house the next morning

 

·         3:00pm – Allweather puts out a map. It shows 2’ plus in the south central mountains

 

·         3:15pm – Cashtown Coop likes the map

 

·         3:45pm – Wmsptwx says uh oh, the 18z NAM cut back on precip amounts lol

 

·         3:50pm – Pasnownut says that the 18z NAM is now throwing out more realistic amounts of 2” QPF over southern PA

 

·         4:15pm – I pop in the mid-Atlantic thread. I read an 11 paragraph thesis from PSUHoffman stating what could still go wrong from the northern tier of Maryland up into PA. I get worried.

 

·         4:45pm – Wmsptwx says don’t look now, but on the 18z GFS the sharp cutoff is now down near the Mason-Dixon lol. I cuss Williamsport out. People in my office somehow know who I’m responding to.

 

·         4:50pm – Canderson rants that Harrisburg will be lucky to get 2” from the storm

 

·         4:55pm – MAG5035 says all of PA south and east of UNV-IPT is in for a mauling. I feel much better.

 

·         5:00pm – Wmsptwx says what about up my way, MAG lol. MAG still ignores him.

 

·         5:45pm – Blizzard of 93 says that the 18z GFS was showing an east coast bomb at 384 hours. I’m wondering why he’s now overlooking the monster that is less than 6 hours away from starting.

 

·         6:15pm – djr5001 says that south and east of Harrisburg needs to worry about mixing issues, and uses big words and terminology way above my educated head.

 

·         6:45pm – Eskimo Joe pops in to tell us the storm is already a bust

 

·         7:00pm – Heavywx posts a series of graphs with lines of various colors going in different directions on it. I get excited.

 

·         7:01pm – I silently think to myself “what in the heck did Heavywx just post?”

 

·         7:45pm – MAG5035 reports light snow has commenced at his house

 

·         8:00pm – Wmsptwx says that he’s rooting for us southern tier guys lol

 

·         8:15pm – 2001kx replies to MAG and says it’s snowing lightly there too. I wonder if it ever stops snowing there.

 

·         8:45pm – Cashtown Coop says light snow has begun

 

·         9:00pm – Canderson complains about the weather forecast he saw on TV

 

·         9:10pm – Sauss06 says he knows exactly who Canderson is talking about. I have no clue.

 

·         9:30pm – MAG5035 reports 1” has fallen, snow is now moderate

 

·         9:40pm – 2001kx says he has moderate snow too. I vow to move to Clearfield someday.

 

·         9:45pm – Pasnownut says the 0z NAM looks awesome

 

·         9:45pm – Wmsptwx says the 0z NAM is horrible for everyone in our thread, lol

 

·         9:50pm – Pasnownut posts 0z NAM map. It shows big snows over the eastern half of the state

 

·         9:55pm – Superstorm says it’s now-casting time

 

·         10:00pm – Eskimo Joe says the storm is a bust

 

·         10:15pm – Atomixwx says he’s feeling no pain

 

·         10:30pm – Voyager says depending on which model he uses, he could get anywhere from 2” to 2’. He then recites how many times this has happened over the past 10 years.

 

·         10:35pm – Canderson says it’s snowing hard in Harrisburg, everything is already covered

 

·         10:40pm – Wmsptwx says the 0z GFS  looks good for every poster in the sub-forum except for him, lol

 

·         10:45pm – MAG5035 reports 2” down, says the 0z GFS gets over an 1” of precip up to IPT

 

·         10:50pm – Cashtown Coop reports 1” of new snow

 

·         11:00pm – JM1220 comes in from Long Island to say congrats to UNV, even though he’s going to get triple the amount of snow that UNV ends up with

 

·         11:10pm – Blizzard of 93 says the long range looks great for snow. He seems to ignore that it’s currently snow + with a ¼ mile visibility in Marysville

 

·         11:20pm – Canderson says this is some of the heaviest snow he’s ever seen, wondering if the NAM was on to something

 

·         11:35pm – Wmsptwx says the latest HRRR really cut back on snow in IPT lol

 

·         11:45pm – MAG5035 says he’s got heavy snow with 3” down, and that the storm looks amazing on the water vapor loop

 

·         11:55pm – Wmsptwx says he can see the moon through the clouds, enjoy it southern tier guys lol

 

·         12:00am – I go to bed, wondering what some of the truly best people on American Weather are going to say overnight…

 

 

 

And so it goes…

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37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

lol I wish! Fact is I love trains. I actually had a year-long membership to the Strasburg Railroad in the past. Some of my vacations are built around riding trains. Cass West Virginia is a favorite trip of mine. :) 

So actually I work in HR in employee training and development. 

my wife and I have been to Cass.  highly recommend for anyone who wants to ride a train to the top of a mountain. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Some of the names have changed but this still mostly fits:

A Day in the Life of the Central PA Thread

 

 

 

·         12:15am – Blizzard Of 93 shares that the 0z GGEM indicated that all of Central PA looked to pick up over a 1’ of snow in the next 48 hours....

 

LOL

 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

·         11:00pm – JM1220 comes in from Long Island to say congrats to UNV, even though he’s going to get triple the amount of snow that UNV ends up with

 

Definitely remember that one more than a few times :lol:

I've laid back on going crazy model watching too after getting burned so many times... but this one sure is looking promising.

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4 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Definitely remember that one more than a few times :lol:

I've laid back on going crazy model watching too after getting burned so many times... but this one sure is looking promising.

You and I had a few meltdowns together brother ...I agree more fun to just take it as it comes. I had meltdown..you were just sad haha. 

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OMG>>>I literally was crying with laughter over your story, Mike.  The part that kept cracking me up the most were the comments from Canderson about the wind!  Didn't he just make a post a few days ago about how a 50mph wind gust must have just come through and blew a huge trash dumpster down the street?

SO FUNNY!!!  Thanks for the laughs again.

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

OMG>>>I literally was crying with laughter over your story, Mike.  The part that kept cracking me up the most were the comments from Canderson about the wind!  Didn't he just make a post a few days ago about how a 50mph wind gust must have just come through and blew a huge trash dumpster down the street?

SO FUNNY!!!  Thanks for the laughs again.

Trust me, I pay attention to who posts what about what. I was told at a very young age that I'm very perceptive, so there's that too.

Some really good news - reading in the mid-atlantic thread that the EPS is south by about 100 miles for the weekend storm...

EPS takes the storm through central VA. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Trust me, I pay attention to who posts what about what. I was told at a very young age that I'm very perceptive, so there's that too.

Some really good news - reading in the mid-atlantic thread that the EPS is south by about 100 miles for the weekend storm...

EPS takes the storm through central VA. 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_5.png

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18Z NAM has almost all of PA snow for the first thump 7-10 inches statewide, then at the 84hr frame has the low down in NC lurking for round 2? 

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The 18Z NAM is going to cause some to really put their thinking caps on.  Brings what I can only describe as a double barrel low in the south east and lower Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon.  Initially the northern  piece is making a drive for our west but as Nam progresses it centers lower heights on the piece moving through the South East.  It ends at 84 with 1022 LP in South Carolina and precip around the Mid Atlantic has lightened up and become scattered.  Most here (and N Md) get 6-8" from that first thump waiting to see what the second piece does.

 

I will add that I can only surmise that the scattered nature of the precip at hour 84 is due to what would be the dry slot from the dying former primary northern low as it scoots south of PA.

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

The 18Z NAM is going to cause some to really put their thinking caps on.  Brings what I can only describe as a double barrel low in the south east and lower Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon.  Initially the northern  piece is making a drive for our west but as Nam progresses it centers lower heights on the piece moving through the South East.  It ends at 84 with 1022 LP is South Carolina and precip around the Mid Atlantic has lightened up and become scattered.  Most here (and N Md) get 6-8" from that first thump waiting to see what the second piece does. 

sorry 6-8", forgot about the thurs night event. 

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6 minutes ago, JTrout said:

sorry 6-8", forgot about the thurs night event. 

A good thump either way and really interesting question of whether anything gets thrown back as the panels would have gone on.  Quite a convoluted scenario.  Just about everyone who posts here cashes in.  Pitt, Williamsport, PSU in Northern Maryland , even Central MD people. 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

A good thump either way and really interesting question of whether anything gets thrown back as the panels would have gone on.  Quite a convoluted scenario.  

It's not all that crazy I guess, earlier in the week the second piece of energy riding up idea was present, also check out the Euro low in the same time frame. Really elongated and stretched. I could see that having two pieces of energy with a little shift. Either way, its snowier at the beginning for everyone, so that's a plus! Hopefully that second wave rides up and everyone gets a second batch to get everyone a foot+.  On second thought, it's the NAM at 84 hrs. 

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1 minute ago, JTrout said:

 

 

Looks like roughly the same idea....

After we got past the GFS I think every other numerical model I have seen has indeed been pushing the SLP through VA (or even more south in the case of the Nam).

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We are rooting for something like the NAM, weaker L scooting across the CONUS. The weaker it is, the less it consolidates and slows down. This allows it to get in front of the northern piece. Less it interacts the better/ colder/ snowier/ etc. 

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Hour 90 of the 18Z Icon is nothing short of an all out Ice Storm.  Temps in the mid 20's with Sleet and or FRZA falling.  This is after a nice thump of snow. 

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Hour 90 of the 18Z Icon is nothing short of an all out Ice Storm.  Temps in the mid 20's with Sleet and or FRZA falling.  This is after a nice thump of snow. 

ohhh myy! I just looked at the 2M air temps. 

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