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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Horst: No changes...

I have to say, I am a big fan of Horst and how he doesn't hype anything....ever.  However, he made a post last night about the 18Z GEFS being aligned with the OP and that is not to be ignored.  The GEFS always mirror the OP when you are getting close to an event.  I know he knows way more than I'll ever know, but that just seemed like a reach.

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Let’s enjoy the couple of inches of snow tonight.

Then, for this weekend, the best models are trending colder with more snow & ice impacts.

 

Speaking of that, the NWS said no WAA is being issued.   Snow going to start flying today before rush hour but I suspect wet roads until later in the evening. N MD did go with a WAA though. 

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23 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

6Z Nam back to its transferring scenario and we all get a big winter storm.  In fact every model I looked at showed a similar scenario except.....drum roll...the GFS.  The GFS has been changing stories ever 6-12 hours.

I’m telling ya. GFS makes this sport tough. 

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12 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I have to say, I am a big fan of Horst and how he doesn't hype anything....ever.  However, he made a post last night about the 18Z GEFS being aligned with the OP and that is not to be ignored.  The GEFS always mirror the OP when you are getting close to an event.  I know he knows way more than I'll ever know, but that just seemed like a reach.

He also had 2- 4 inches on game day In November for most of us.

Harrisburg got 8.8, just like the Euro showed for days.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The criteria is different in MD.

CTP for tonight has 2 inches of snow for most of us.

Yea, I was not suggesting anything was amiss just reporting what I had read.  In reality there is little support for anything over 2" except the HRDPS which bullseyes the West LSV with 3-5.  Outside of micro climate forecasting, going for anything over 2" would be a weeine forecast. 

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19 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

He must be riding the GFS

One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often.

I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. 

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He also had 2- 4 inches on game day In November for most of us.
Harrisburg got 8.8, just like the Euro showed for days.

With his focus mainly on Lancaster County, I have to lean more towards his outcome.

I think we get a couple of inches of snow than a brief period of freezing rain and sleet. Then it’s an inch plus of rain.

CAD looks very underwhelming on models (especially GFS).


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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often.

I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. 

I don’t follow him personally.  Does he only forecast for Lancaster County or for all the LSV?

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One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often.
I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. 

And for us in Lancaster County, we’ve been on this ride before. If it is going to snow heavily in northern PA, there’s about a 90% chance we will be turning to rain.


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3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


With his focus mainly on Lancaster County, I have to lean more towards his outcome.

I think we get a couple of inches of snow than a brief period of freezing rain and sleet. Then it’s an inch plus of rain.

CAD looks very underwhelming on models (especially GFS).


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I agree that models may not show a cad signature but sometimes it’s best to use climo instead.   LWX does a great job with this in their morn disco.   

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