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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Look at the warm nose into middle TN/S KY! Dang, I hate to waste a chance at a system taking what would ordinarily be a perfect track. I really cant figure a warm nose like that with the LP over Jacksonville?? Why the heck are the 850s not dropping when it goes by to the south?

There seems to be some wiggle room in the path, cmc and to some degree, the fv3, both slide the low into lower alabama.  Considering we need all the help we can get, I hope we see more of the tracks like the 12z gfs, that slide it more easterly and off panama city by 50-100 miles. Ive noticed that the historic clown maps tended to have this progression

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17 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Look at the warm nose into middle TN/S KY! Dang, I hate to waste a chance at a system taking what would ordinarily be a perfect track. I really cant figure a warm nose like that with the LP over Jacksonville?? Why the heck are the 850s not dropping when it goes by to the south?

It's not a "true" Miller A, more of a hybrid Miller B. The warm nose in central TN is in response to the uv riding up into that region before pivoting into the coastal. 6z had that more sw flow up the valley compared to the 12z. My guess is it's pivoting just a little quicker which helps the eastern valley.

gfs_uv850_se_19.png

gfs_uv850_se_18.png

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So while the trailing 850 low is actually extending snow/precip chances back this way its also screwing up the thermals? In other words, the thermals are not as clear cut like a consolidated low pressure system would be?

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Fv3 is still frozen for me @96..stolen from se board, not too focus on micro level stuff but congrats kingsport/gate city 

fv3_12Z.png.a5ff35de1b9a59fc4adff473af57127d.png

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2 minutes ago, Coach B said:

So while the trailing 850 low is actually extending snow/precip chances back this way its also screwing up the thermals? In other words, the thermals are not as clear cut like a consolidated low pressure system would be?

Yes it's messing up the thermals in a big way. Here is an example from the epic 12z Euro and the current 00z...the 850 went from tracking south of TN thru MS/AL, to now being up in KY. The 850 has to track completely south of us or phase to the coastal sooner.

ecmwf_z850_vort_nc_24.png

ecmwf_z850_vort_nc_22.png

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So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga?

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The WPC model disco. They will update post Euro but for now gave the most weight to the 00z Euro.

 

Quote

Good agreement is seen among global guidance with the trough position and depth until Saturday when timing and magnitude differences become apparent. The 12Z GFS is less progressive than prior runs and is closer to the consensus. This slowing brought the 12Z GFS enough into the fold to be considered for the preference. The preference is still weighted toward the 00Z ECMWF which is deeper and slower, but in line with the ECENS mean and 12Z NAM. The 00Z UKMET is as progressive as the 12Z GFS.

 

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So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga?

Sunday is still up in the air but not looking all that bad at the moment.


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3 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said:

So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga?

If you stick to I-75 heading back you should be ok. You may be able to pass through the blue ridge if the storm fell on the warmer side of possibilities but I wouldn't risk it.

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The WPC model disco. They will update post Euro but for now gave the most weight to the 00z Euro.

 

 

Interesting they would discount the UK.  It was and remains progressive.  

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6 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said:

So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga?

From some of what I'm seeing, Athens may have more issues than Pigeon Forge.

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18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The WPC model disco. They will update post Euro but for now gave the most weight to the 00z Euro.

 

 

Hopefully the 850 comes back south, the 00z roasted NE TN and spelled ice storm instead of snow.

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