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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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FWIW the 6z NAM 3k IR satellite looks like the system is further north over the SW and Great Basin than the 6z RGEM at the same time (54 hours).  Little differences there may have big differences down the road, but as to what that means for us, it's hard to say.  Looks like the differences at the time are caused by the N. vort max in our energy being maybe 100 miles south on the RGEM vs. the NAM. 

As we saw from the overnight Euro, precisely where those vorts pass means everything when it comes to precip types for places where it is very marginal. 

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I think part of what is going on...we are trying to match models with what will eventually become reality.  If reality is a true Noreaster that goes from Louisiana to SE GA, up the coast, and impacts the I-95 corridor...that changes things quite a bit.  I mentioned that yesterday, and still am looking over my shoulder for that.  Looks like the overall track though is a good one.  Temps are the issue, and that might not be resolved for several runs.  Put me in the northwest quadrant of a storm, and I will take my chances.  It won't work out every time, but that is where big snows happen.  I would rather be there more times than not.  On to the 12z suite...By 0z tonight we should be getting an idea of where this his heading.  The trends from last night to tonight on the operational will begin to outweigh the ensembles...but the ensembles still matter with so many varying tracks out there.  Time to watch trends...and those admittedly were not the best at 0z.   At 6z, the trends are not all that bad.  That tells me that models are still wobbling from run-to-run, and understandably not dialed-in yet.

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Good morning everyone. Well looks like I was "snowed in" for a quarter of inch of snow. I don't care  why I'm just glad to have a break midway through the week for model watching. After viewing 6z I'm feeling more comfortable than I was last night. The ICON has believe it or not improved but is far from ideal here and certainly not in Tennessee.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think part of what is going on...we are trying to match models with what will eventually become reality.  If reality is a true Noreaster that goes from Louisiana to SE GA, up the coast, and impacts the I-95 corridor...that changes things quite a bit.  I mentioned that yesterday, and still am looking over my shoulder for that.  Looks like the overall track though is a good one.  Temps are the issue, and that might not be resolved for several runs.  Put me in the northwest quadrant of a storm, and I will take my chances.  It won't work out every time, but that is where big snows happen.  I would rather be there more times than not.  On to the 12z suite...By 0z tonight we should be getting an idea of where this his heading.  The trends from last night to tonight on the operational will begin to outweigh the ensembles...but the ensembles still matter with so many varying tracks out there.  Time to watch trends...and those admittedly were not the best at 0z.   At 6z, the trends are not all that bad.  That tells me that models are still wobbling from run-to-run, and understandably not dialed-in yet.

Good point on the wobbling and not dialed in, here is a good example of this on the 6z GEFS...basically almost a coinflip at TYS.

KTYS_2018120506_gefs_snow_384.png

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26 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Good point on the wobbling and not dialed in, here is a good example of this on the 6z GEFS...basically almost a coinflip at TYS.

 

@TellicoWx What site do you use to get those charts?

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Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables

Screenshot_20181205-110738.jpg

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Temperature issues in the northern Valley for sure.  Looks frozen...but what?  Snow, sleet, rain, ice, snow.  12z GFS looks decent in terms of track.  Boy, 1 mb difference in those highs is the difference.  I am a little more concerned about ice now around TRI.  If this comes in at night, this could be a mess.

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There's almost always that worrisome,  what I call the "Tennessee Valley effect". Warm nose shooting up the valley between the Cumberlands and the Smokies. Also, another aspect is the downsloping. 

Unfortunately I know all about this. I’m close to that cutoff point where 10 miles up the road is all snow. Has happened many times.


.

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3 minutes ago, Bango said:

Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables

Screenshot_20181205-110738.jpg

Downslope got us a bit.  I-81 westward would do OK w that look.  Closer to the mountains and the air column dries out due to sinking air.  Overall, not a bad look.  I suspect the GEFS mean will look nice.

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3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

12Z NAM of course at 84, but still not a bad look for feature placement.

12z NAM@84.png

Sure wish the system would speed up as to get ahead of the HP. As it stands , it appears the hp is moving faster and building further east. Still think we'll be ok as long as it just remains at least over the top of the lp. as the move east.

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3 minutes ago, Bango said:

Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables

Screenshot_20181205-110738.jpg

But what a beauty that slp is.  Almost a perfect comma.  Have to think there is more snow west of the Apps than that.  I will take that look any day...but let's just hope this is a preview of the winter pattern.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure wish the system would speed up as to get ahead of the HP. As it stands , it appears the hp is moving faster and building further east. Still think we'll be ok as long as it just remains at least over the top of the lp. as the move east.

Yeah the thing that worries me is the High seems to be pretty progressive in its move east.  I am way more comfortable with the high sitting around the southern end of Lake Michigan.  Or at least north or NW of us.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Afraid the game is over for anyone SW of 40/81.


.

If anyone gets their hands on one of those 12z UKMET maps, that might give us a clue as to the Euro at 12z.  Would be bonus material if we can get one of those w accums.  As for the proverbial for for the Central Valley, I would probably give it to 0z.  But agree,not great trends outside of NE TN...and we may get trended out of this as well up here.  I was pleased to see the GFS stop the northward jog.  

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3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Yeah the thing that worries me is the High seems to be pretty progressive in its move east.  I am way more comfortable with the high sitting around the southern end of Lake Michigan.  Or at least north or NW of us.

I am just glad we are not dealing w a pesky low over the Lakes.  Remember that winter where we would get a great pattern, but a low would be there?

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Big improvement in the 850s as the comma comes overhead in East TN. Also, increased the precip rates which may translate to the surface better.
gfs_t850_se_18.thumb.png.57b9da73068cd3970eb4b0278167e32d.png
gfs_t850_se_17.thumb.png.d3fbb0afd718a5eff1b4e21b50b78fec.png


Wow that’s 50/75 miles to the good.


.
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I am just glad we are not dealing w a pesky low over the Lakes.  Remember that winter where we would get a great pattern, but a low would be there?
Yes!!! That was awful, over and over. Think that was 2 years back.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Big improvement in the 850s as the comma comes overhead in East TN. Also, increased the precip rates which may translate to the surface better.

gfs_t850_se_18.png

gfs_t850_se_17.png

Look at the warm nose into middle TN/S KY! Dang, I hate to waste a chance at a system taking what would ordinarily be a perfect track. I really cant figure a warm nose like that with the LP over Jacksonville?? Why the heck are the 850s not dropping when it goes by to the south?

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