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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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Found this topography map of east TN with some...unique...coloring that really helps identify that zone around Morristown where the elevation kicks up. Really seems to coincide with what some of the models are showing as the transition zone. Am interested to see how the actual rain/snow line verifies. 

eTN topo.jpg

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5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I am never falling for any SREF love again.  Been burned too many times.  I am sure it's useful for something (other than getting hopes up), but refuse to use it as a tool in my toolbox.  lol

Yep I only look at it once at 24 hours out for sure thing type of events to watch their amount trends, but only around the 24 hour mark for a storm that is an all but guarantee.

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I do like this particular SREF product though (this is not the plumes): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2018120615&id=SREF_500MB-HGHT_VORT__ 

You can kind of use it like a NAM ensemble for a different variables.  You can usually tell where the NAM will come in based on the trends on that. That's basically what I use it for. 

 The plumes are fun and I will probably never stop looking at them, but I have gotten sucked in before. Good news is they are not so nice for Knox right now, so they can only go up??  

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1 minute ago, uncheelfan said:

Just got issued a winter storm watch for northeast Tennessee!!!

Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk
 

Wow, that was not what I expected to happen.

Quote
...A STRONG EARLY SEASON SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

Widespread precipitation will move into the area late Saturday as
a strong upper level system sweeps into the area. Temperatures
will be cold enough across northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia for precipitation to begin as a mixture of rain/snow or
possibly all snow. The best lift and moisture will arrive on
Sunday with rather significant accumulations possible ranging
from 4 to as high as 12 inches in a few isolated spots. Snow will
begin to taper off on Monday.

TNZ017-018-041-043>047-074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-071000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Sullivan-Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Kingsport, Bristol, Mountain City, Cosby,
Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain,
Gatlinburg, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City, Lebanon,
and Abingdon
324 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 12
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

image.png.ba33211f003c437431952b1f4e05cba6.png 

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Me neither especially this early!!! Hoping that's it's not a "you know what"! Very very interesting that the models have been showing this much accumulation for this amount of time!

Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk

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The MRX WSW is pretty much what I predicted they'd do yesterday. So far very much like December 18th 2009. I had 6 inches of snow on the ground when they got around to issuing a winter storm warning for my area. 

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21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Found this topography map of east TN with some...unique...coloring that really helps identify that zone around Morristown where the elevation kicks up. Really seems to coincide with what some of the models are showing as the transition zone. Am interested to see how the actual rain/snow line verifies. 

eTN topo.jpg

That is cool! You have a link to that for the rest of the state?

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Accompanying MRX PM disco:

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...
The short-term forecast is rather benign compared to the long-
term forecast. Temperatures have struggled today as high clouds
moved in ahead of the next approaching upper level system. This
system is currently located to the northwest across the Great
Lakes but will race into the Northeast U.S. by late tonight. A
cold front associated with this upper trough will slide into the
area tonight. Moisture along this boundary will be limited with
only a slight chance for a few snow showers late tonight into
early Friday morning across portions of southwest Virginia and
portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau. No snow accumulations
are forecast tonight. Lows overnight will range from the upper
20s to mid 30s.

On Friday cyclogenesis will take place along the natural baroclinic
zone of the northwestern Gulf Coast as an upper level trough moves
across the Baja California. Concurrently, an E-W surface boundary
will stretch across the northern Gulf Coast. Isentropic ascent to
the north of the boundary will keep conditions cloudy throughout the
day but do not expect precipitation will move in until after 00z
Saturday. Another cool day is forecast with highs in the low to mid
40s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)...
Isentropic ascent will continue Friday night into Saturday with
the atmospheric gradually moistening and light precipitation in
the form of light rain overspreading the southern sections of the
Forecast area. Clouds will thicken across the northeast section
with light northeast winds bringing in cold air from high pressure
centered over the the Ohio Valley and eastern states. An upper low
moves east along the Gulf Coast with a surface low developing and
moving to the southeast coast and then northeastward as cold
airmass from strong high pressure over the east keeps cold air in
place. The precipitation will increase Saturday and Saturday
night from southwest to northeast. The precipitation will be
mostly rain Saturday and Saturday evening then transition to snow
in the higher elevations and across the northeast where more cold
air is trapped. Expect moderate to heavy snow across southwest
Virginia and northeast Tennessee late Saturday night and Sunday
decreasing late Sunday night as the main system pulls out to the
northeast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas.
The lower elevations in the central and southern sections will
have enough warming Saturday through Sunday with only light to
little snowfall accumulations. Monday and Monday night the
precipitation will gradually decrease with only light
accumulations Monday afternoon and night. High pressure settles in
Tuesday and Wednesday with another system to move in Thursday
with warm enough temperatures for mostly rainfall.

 

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From the map posted, this is the snowline very very often for my area. Also illustrates why WAA that runs up the valley doesn't work as well here even though the very center of Campbell has a narrow valley. It's surrounded by ridges/peaks and doesn't really connect with the great valley of East Tn. 

 

220669984-e-TNtopo-thumb-jpg-df90cbaa98e

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4 minutes ago, Coach B said:

That is cool! You have a link to that for the rest of the state?

Just search up colored elevation relief maps of tennessee and you should find it. There is one of every state however the colors for altitude vary with each state. If I posted one of Virginia relative to the the Tennessee one I would look like I was at the same elevation as Kingsport.

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8 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Accompanying MRX PM disco:

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...
The short-term forecast is rather benign compared to the long-
term forecast. Temperatures have struggled today as high clouds
moved in ahead of the next approaching upper level system. This
system is currently located to the northwest across the Great
Lakes but will race into the Northeast U.S. by late tonight. A
cold front associated with this upper trough will slide into the
area tonight. Moisture along this boundary will be limited with
only a slight chance for a few snow showers late tonight into
early Friday morning across portions of southwest Virginia and
portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau. No snow accumulations
are forecast tonight. Lows overnight will range from the upper
20s to mid 30s.

On Friday cyclogenesis will take place along the natural baroclinic
zone of the northwestern Gulf Coast as an upper level trough moves
across the Baja California. Concurrently, an E-W surface boundary
will stretch across the northern Gulf Coast. Isentropic ascent to
the north of the boundary will keep conditions cloudy throughout the
day but do not expect precipitation will move in until after 00z
Saturday. Another cool day is forecast with highs in the low to mid
40s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)...
Isentropic ascent will continue Friday night into Saturday with
the atmospheric gradually moistening and light precipitation in
the form of light rain overspreading the southern sections of the
Forecast area. Clouds will thicken across the northeast section
with light northeast winds bringing in cold air from high pressure
centered over the the Ohio Valley and eastern states. An upper low
moves east along the Gulf Coast with a surface low developing and
moving to the southeast coast and then northeastward as cold
airmass from strong high pressure over the east keeps cold air in
place. The precipitation will increase Saturday and Saturday
night from southwest to northeast. The precipitation will be
mostly rain Saturday and Saturday evening then transition to snow
in the higher elevations and across the northeast where more cold
air is trapped. Expect moderate to heavy snow across southwest
Virginia and northeast Tennessee late Saturday night and Sunday
decreasing late Sunday night as the main system pulls out to the
northeast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas.
The lower elevations in the central and southern sections will
have enough warming Saturday through Sunday with only light to
little snowfall accumulations. Monday and Monday night the
precipitation will gradually decrease with only light
accumulations Monday afternoon and night. High pressure settles in
Tuesday and Wednesday with another system to move in Thursday
with warm enough temperatures for mostly rainfall.

 

I always feel like MRX ignores its Northern Plateau counties unless it absolutely has to mention them. That's several discos in a row where we aren't mentioned at all regarding the weekend even though around 115,000 people live here. 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I always feel like MRX ignores its Northern Plateau counties unless it absolutely has to mention them. That's several discos in a row where we aren't mentioned at all even though around 115,000 people live here. 

I was getting ready to come on here and mention this. I thought it was strange that the northern plateau isnt getting any discussion. It's hard to tell if they are grouping the Plateau with the lower elevations or the higher elevations group.

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I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs.  I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area.

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4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Geez that’s beautiful


.

It really is. This is the neatest thing Ive seen all week.  Oh, and Nashville really is down in a hole. UHI and elevation really screw things up for them. OHX has more elevation to consider than we often think about. Lots of areas in southern middle TN over 1000 feet that doesn't seem to be mentioned either. 

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18z NAM clown for hour 84.

Pretty solid I must say. Haven’t had time to look at specifics. c32550367fb17227ae3269635d523c3b.jpg&key=ad40c077a8d406255cac25594c5c8c74465adb409ae0122abb7fc2748d4ec746

It took me from 1” to 8 inches. LOL


.
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1 minute ago, Runman292 said:

I was getting ready to come on here and mention this. I thought it was strange that the northern plateau isnt getting any discussion. It's hard to tell if they are grouping the Plateau with the lower elevations or the higher elevations group.

They rarely mention us unless it's supposed to snow here and no where else. They also seem to divide the area often by saying the north or the south part of their area. But they seem to refer to Tri as their north. I'm further north than Tri but they don't seem to mean this area when they say north.

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9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs.  I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area.

Honestly, by looking at their forecast they basically saw the 12z GFS and based the forecast mainly on it and the 12z NAM. I'll also add that this is a frequent problem for this part of their forecast area. Very often get wwa/warning criteria winter weather events that either end up with no products issued or a WWA.  It happened this week already. The northern half of Campbell got 1.5-3 inches of snow. Bordering counties of SEKY were issued WWA. SWVA/Smokies were issued WWA. We were generally ignored. 

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I was looking at the Southeast forums and Greenville/Spartanburg threw up like 2 inches of snow for Asheville and discounting any heavier snows except for more towards the midstate of NC. Pretty strange...

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Just now, DownNDirtyTN said:

I was looking at the Southeast forums and Greenville/Spartanburg threw up like 2 inches of snow for Asheville and discounting any heavier snows except for more towards the midstate of NC. Pretty strange...

Was reading their discussion and they are expecting a lot of sleet to cut into snow totals now there.  It was a dramatic change by GSP.

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5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Honestly, by looking at their forecast they basically saw the 12z GFS and based the forecast mainly on it and the 12z NAM.

That is true.  I know the feeling I stay colder in WAA situations for much longer and that is missed all the time.  The areas around Roane, Rhea and Meigs for some reason seem to get trapped cold and get ice much longer than most in WAA.  Always annoyed me they would not notice this happening over and over year after year.  The southern plateau I believe creates a sort of shadow for the areas right along the plateau in the valley where WAA rides east of us and takes longer to filter in.

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As much as I would hate it for the NC and SC people, I would also love for the warm nose to be more aimed to that side of the Apps.  If the 850 low can round the base of the Apps, I'm all for it.  

Was just about to mention this. There is a sweet spot for this 850 low, and for East TN to cash in it often involves WNC taking it on the chin WRT the warm nose.
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