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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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I had never heard of mud season when I lived in the Boston area.  Boy I know what it is now.  Our road is a total mess.  Without 4 wheel drive and a truck its almost impossible to get up.  Thankfully it firmed up last night and more thankfully no storms this week and a freeze/thaw temps will help.  If the thaw had continued with an inch or two of rain thrown on top it would have been a disaster. 

 

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

I had never heard of mud season when I lived in the Boston area.  Boy I know what it is now.  Our road is a total mess.  Without 4 wheel drive and a truck its almost impossible to get up.  Thankfully it firmed up last night and more thankfully no storms this week and a freeze/thaw temps will help.  If the thaw had continued with an inch or two of rain thrown on top it would have been a disaster. 

 

How does the Crosstrek do in that stuff?

 

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17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It's actually been snowing pretty good for the past 30-45 minutes.  Perfect dendrites, big feathers.  They are slow to fall but there are a lot of them.

Seems to be a Lake Ontario connection...could be a couple/few inches for the mountains if they are seeing this snow growth, but it's the true meaning of dust on crust.

t7opbJa.gif

The pics I saw from Smuggs this morning were pretty inspiring. 

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46 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

How does the Crosstrek do in that stuff?

 

Good question.  I took the truck today.  Tomorrow will be the Crosstrek's turn.  Over this winter, in the snow that Crosstrek was a beast.  Fantastic handling and high clearance.  With only 2000 miles on the new car I really don't want to drive it through the deep mud but its inevitable.

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Here’s the north to south listing of available 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas, which should represent the totals from the back side of Winter Storm Ulmer.

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 1”

Sugarbush: 1”

Pico: 0”

Killington: 0”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

The totals fell of pretty precipitously once outside the Northern Greens with this event.

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20 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Here’s the north to south listing of available 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas, which should represent the totals from the back side of Winter Storm Ulmer.

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: 1”

Sugarbush: 1”

Pico: 0”

Killington: 0”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

The totals fell of pretty precipitously once outside the Northern Greens with this event.

That has to be wrong, Jay didn’t get the most? I’ve never heard of such a thing.:whistle:

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

The pics I saw from Smuggs this morning were pretty inspiring. 

It was great photo snow, fluffy pow.  But if you added in sound it was very loud pow.  That firm base was 100% there on every turn.

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4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

The totals fell of pretty precipitously once outside the Northern Greens with this event.

It was a classic Northern Greens set-up that may barely show up on QPF/precip plots because of how minimal it is... but snow growth is aligned well for orographic snows, with -12C to -18F just above the ridges and peaks.  So the fluid westerly flow hits a speed bump, like water rippling over a dam of rocks, and that turbulence/upward motion brings snow to the surface.  A subtle WNW CAA undercutting the flow aloft also wouldn't cause snow because it's usually denser, sinking air.  But the terrain says it needs to go up as well.

In the end, you get a fluffy 2-3" and nice few hour period of snow around the Spine, with 4-5" at the ski resorts.  Hard to believe not getting a tenth in the Upper CT River Valley despite being in the moisture flow axis.

March_17_Snow.png

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19 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I had never heard of mud season when I lived in the Boston area.  Boy I know what it is now.  Our road is a total mess.  Without 4 wheel drive and a truck its almost impossible to get up.  Thankfully it firmed up last night and more thankfully no storms this week and a freeze/thaw temps will help.  If the thaw had continued with an inch or two of rain thrown on top it would have been a disaster. 

 

Impressive ruts, but fortunately no spring-holes (yet.)

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2 hours ago, sonerick said:

I don't know, might be doing some mudmobiling in spots

Deep snowcover in NW Lakes Region of NH.  Even with my full sun south facing slopes snow depth is just under 1 foot.  Unless we get a lot of rain on Thursday I don't see a day or two of 40's doing too much damage.  Perhaps lots of water bars with melt to cross otherwise I thin sledding will be okay for one last weekend

Untitled.jpg

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On ‎3‎/‎17‎/‎2019 at 5:53 PM, powderfreak said:

It was great photo snow, fluffy pow.  But if you added in sound it was very loud pow.  That firm base was 100% there on every turn.

Riding the powder was actually quite good on appropriate low to moderate angle terrain yesterday at Stowe.  On my snowboard I was definitely getting some bottomless turns at times.  You weren’t going to stay away from the base on the steep stuff, but we had an awesome afternoon of riding powder on the lower angle stuff, and it was literally night and day compared to what the conditions would have been like without the delivery of that Northern Greens magic.  We weren’t there until the afternoon, but it could only have been even better in the morning.  I’ve got a few shots below, and a few more in the report linked above.

17MAR19E.jpg

17MAR19D.jpg

17MAR19C.jpg

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I hadn’t realized how close in time this next storm was getting, but since it’s just a couple days away now I took a look at the latest thoughts from the BTV NWS forecast discussion.  It seems like there’s some good potential between the initial and upslope portions of the storm cycle.  The models appear to be converging a bit more now, as one would expect as we get closer to the system, so we’ll see what their thoughts are this afternoon.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...Models continue to struggle to come into some closer agreement on the coastal low just east of the DELMARVA region. The ECMWF still seems to be the most robust of the models with surface low dragging across southern New England leading to more projected snowfall across NEK and the northern Greens, while the GFS keeps the low out over the coastline and brings more conservative amounts over Eastern VT, though higher than the prior model runs. Friday does show a trough axis swings through the region with a nice shortwave tracking through the region, bringing with it snow showers, mainly in the higher terrain and a rain-snow mix in the valleys. Overall QPF amounts don`t look to be too significant right now, but shifting northwest flow mid-day Friday could lead to some overperforming snowfall amounts for NEK and the northern Greens through Saturday morning.

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10 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Overall QPF amounts don`t look to be too significant right now, but shifting northwest flow mid-day Friday could lead to some overperforming snowfall amounts for NEK and the northern Greens through Saturday morning.

Seems like every NW flow upslope event has overpreformed,  compared to short term forecasts, this year.

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21 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Seems like every NW flow upslope event has overpreformed,  compared to short term forecasts, this year.

Upslope snow is a ratios game.  The problem is looking at it like normal snow.  The last event the models were dead on with QPF, but you get 30:1 ratios and 0.3" QPF is 9".  All the snow maps are 10:1 too.  I think the model QPF has done well in those events this season.  You also just see "the signal"...and for the last decade if you see a model print a series of 0.1-.25" QPF panels every 6 hours, it means game on.

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I have a question for Chris.  I noticed that Burlington NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the higher elevations of Vermont.  I have never seen Gray do the same thing for NH or Maine.  They always issue it by county.  Sometimes they will break up my county  (Grafton) into north and south.  Issuing for higher elevations makes total sense instead of broad brushing.  Is it a software related thing?  If Burlington can do it I would assume Gray could too?

 

Big day on my 15 acres.  First small grass patch has appeared on the steep south slope part of the lawn.  Snowcover came on Nov 9th.  We did have patches of grass for a brief time around Christmas.  Snowcover is down to 9" at the snowstake.  This is the beginning of the time of year that it's hard to measure snowcover.  Big differences between north and south facing slopes.

gyx.jpg

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Well, we’re getting to the point that the BTV NWS is starting to update their maps related to the upcoming winter storm, so I’ve added those below.  Winter Storm Watches are now up along the spine.  Using my site as a valley example, our current point forecast suggests 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation through Friday night, with the Mansfield elevation forecast at roughly 10 to 20 inches for that period.  Both forecasts indicate some additional snow on Saturday however.  The projected accumulations map goes through Saturday at 2:00 P.M. and tops out in the 12 to 18-inch range in the high elevations around here along the spine.  That certainly seems a reasonable range for now, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see that exceeded in the high elevations that stay all snow and get a bunch of it with upslope ratios.  The 12 to 18-hour period of moderate to heavy upslope snow mentioned in the AFD is certainly a decent chunk of time, so those accumulations should be interesting.  Of course here’s the true pith of the discussion:

“Beginning the event snow density will be quite high with ratios generally 8-12:1 through midnight Friday, but expect after that through Saturday ratios will rise to a general 15-20:1 making for superb skiing/riding on Saturday.”

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Favorable conditions then continue to appear likely Friday night for a 12-18 hour period of moderate to heavy upslope snow across the Adirondacks and western slopes of the central/northern Green Mountains as a secondary trough shifts southwest into the region consolidating with the initial trough to form a single broad upper trough over the Northeast. At the same time, the surface-700mb low parks itself over northern Maine providing an excellent feed of moisture and lift on north/northwest flow resulting in the potential for 6-10" mid-slopes and up to a foot or more above 2000 feet. Beginning the event snow density will be quite high with ratios generally 8-12:1 through midnight Friday, but expect after that through Saturday ratios will rise to a general 15-20:1 making for superb skiing/riding on Saturday. With all this in mind, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of the area. Please see our winter page online for graphics.

20MAR19A.jpg

20MAR19B.jpg

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From a p&c at 3k

Saturday
Snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers between noon and 2pm. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 39 to 44 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
 
thats growing to be an issue.

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10 hours ago, Hitman said:

From a p&c at 3k

Saturday
Snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers between noon and 2pm. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 39 to 44 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
 
thats growing to be an issue.

Indeed, folks should certainly bring the skins as backup if they’re planning on riding the lifts, just in case.

 

On the point forecast note, projected snowfall amounts are also getting up there – the Mansfield point forecast is surpassing 2 feet on the top end now.  This could be a great resurfacing up high.

Today

A 30 percent chance of light snow, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight

A chance of light snow before 9pm, then snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 30. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 33 mph decreasing to 22 to 27 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday

Snow. High near 31. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 22 mph becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -5. Very windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 36 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow, mainly before 3pm, then a chance of snow showers after 3pm. High near 21. Very windy, with a northwest wind 45 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Very windy, with a northwest wind 38 to 44 mph.

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I haven’t seen any conversions of the Winter Storm Watches yet, but I’ve got the latest maps from the BTV NWS below.  The point forecast for us in the valley has seen a bump in the latest update, as it’s now more in the 6 to 12-inch range or so.  As I noted in my previous post, the Mansfield point forecast is surpassing 2 feet on the top end now, and that seems consistent with the latest projected accumulation map where the peaks are getting some of that 18 to 24-inch red shading.

21MAR19A.jpg

21MAR19B.jpg

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I appreciate that they have a tiny dot over my place that bumps me up to the 3 to 4 range while the rest of town is the next level down.

 

21MAR19B.jpg

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12 hours ago, Hitman said:

From a p&c at 3k

Saturday
Snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers between noon and 2pm. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 39 to 44 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
 
thats growing to be an issue.

We are never going to get a storm like this or any other strong low pressure without wind holds.  Strong NW flow is needed to make it snow so we want the wind.  Best day for lift service should be Sunday or Monday.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We are never going to get a storm like this or any other strong low pressure without wind holds.  Strong NW flow is needed to make it snow so we want the wind.  Best day for lift service should be Sunday or Monday.

sure, but in an ideal world, the winds would diminish around 8-9am saturday morning.  See what you can do about that.  Thank you.

the bindings on my AT setup suffered catastrophic failure and I havent replaced them.  hoping one of the more protected lifts can run.

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I got an alert text about an hour ago, but Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are now up in the area.  There’s also been a bit of a bump on the projected accumulations map, with an expansion of that 18-24” shading along the spine and some of that 24-30” shading appearing now as well.  I haven’t seen much change in our valley forecast, but the Mansfield point forecast is pushing 30 inches on the top end now.

21MAR19C.jpg

21MAR19D.jpg

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7 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I got an alert text about an hour ago, but Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are now up in the area.  There’s also been a bit of a bump on the projected accumulations map, with an expansion of that 18-24” shading along the spine and some of that 24-30” shading appearing now as well.  I haven’t seen much change in our valley forecast, but the Mansfield point forecast is pushing 30 inches on the top end now.

21MAR19C.jpg

21MAR19D.jpg

the 3k' p&c for sb is 13-25"

for the record, snow-forecast.com which I believe is derived from the gfs, is 6" for what thats worth

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I’m not sure when frozen precipitation started to mix in here, but it’s starting to make it down here to the 500’ elevation in the Winooski Valley.  Our point forecast has us with a mix this evening, with snow predominating after 1:00 A.M., so this seems about what was expected.

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