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bluewave

Guess The Date Of The Next 12"+ Snowstorm In The OKX Zones

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There are some interesting surprises with the timing of 12"+ snowstorms during the historic 2010's snowfall era. The first unusual occurrence is that the October 29 to November 15 period has been more active than the December 1-15 interval. Another interesting pattern is the more active first half of March than the second part of February.

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....2

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....5

Feb 1-Feb 15.....6

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

Individual events and the highest snowfall totals

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

If I am reading your totals correctly, there are 27 such storms?

Truly remarkable

Would you happen to know the #'s for each preceding decade?

Yeah, 27 storms so far for the 2010’s is a remarkable number. It reflects the record amount of snowfall that has occurred in this decade. This increase in 12"+ snowstorms also shows up as a record number of KU storms for the 2010’s. The text product archive with all the snowstorms in the OKX zones is incomplete before 2008. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

Archive Completeness:

  • 1996 thru 2001: Sometimes sparse / missing data. Also note that product source IDs are likely different back then (prior to NWS Modernization), some work was done to assign present day WMO source IDs to the product metadata stored in the database. The original text as not modified. Known holes exist at: 29 Oct-1 Nov 1998, 24-27 Dec 1998, 25-28 Jul 1999, 21-25 Jan 2000, 26-27 Mar 2000, 12-13 Jun 2001, 28-29 Jul 2001.
  • 2002 thru 2007: More consistent archives, but still likely missing things. Much better coverage though.
  • 2008 thru now: Very good data coverage and higher fidelity archiving.
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2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

December 28th...everywhere except knyc. 

Ref knyc your on safe ground. There is a greater chance for the sun to rise in the west than to get an accurate measurement in the park.

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42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

January 21, 2020

In a second year super nino? Not a chance...itll be 74 and sunny that day. 

 

:P

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March 3-4, 2019

Fairfield County...
   Monroe                12.0   640 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter
   3 ESE Bethel          12.0   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS
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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

March 3-4, 2019

Fairfield County...
   Monroe                12.0   640 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter
   3 ESE Bethel          12.0   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS

I mean it wins, but not really. Widespread 12" amounts will commence December 11th.

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