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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Thought we'd see a little better agreement on the 00z models tonight.  GFS seems like an outlier, but it definitely shouldn't be discounted just yet.  It seems a bit odd that we're riding the northern edge on the Euro, and the southern edge on the GFS at 36hrs out.  Blending the two puts this area right in the middle though, so I'm feeling pretty confident for some of the heaviest snows right in the heart of the DVN cwa.  

Yeah I'd say you're looking good, whether or not you end up in the heaviest band.

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That FV3 version of the GFS definitely has been consistent.  It never wavered while the op GFS went off on it's southeast outlier tangent.  Definitely is eye opening.  I'd say if the Euro doesn't bump back north on tonight's run I'd start to lean a little more against it.  The fact that the higher-res models are largely in agreement with the Euro and GEM is also interesting.  The 00z HRRR that goes out to 36hrs is definitely looking like it is in the southern camp.

My gut says the Euro corrected a bit too far southeast with last night and today's runs, and the GFS prob corrected a bit too far northwest.  Something in between is where it will probably end up IMO.

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Having an issue currently trying to figure out flight times for my sister who is flying from ORD to DSM Sunday. The flight was originally leaving 9pm this Sunday but today we changed it to leave ORD at 9am Sunday. Not sure what to do at this point because it looks like either way might be bad.

 

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Cyclone is sitting pretty for this.

Blending all the guidance together it certainly looks that way.  If the FV3 were to work out we'll be more on the southeastern edge, but we would still probably have a little fun on the tail-end with some snow and wind.  If that FV3 scenario works out you guys up there in CR/IC will have a very nice storm.  The amped nature of that further northwest track really cranks out heavy snowfall totals.  That would really max out the potential of this system compared to the slightly less amped/further southeast versions on other guidance.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Blending all the guidance together it certainly looks that way.  If the FV3 were to work out we'll be more on the southeastern edge, but we would still probably have a little fun on the tail-end with some snow and wind.  If that FV3 scenario works out you guys up there in CR/IC will have a very nice storm.  The amped nature of that further northwest track really cranks out heavy snowfall totals.  That would really max out the potential of this system compared to the slightly less amped/further southeast versions on other guidance.

I'm still rooting for weaker and south. Ha. But am amped up northern solution wouldn't shock me at all. Would be nice to see that amped up solution but further south

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Blending all the guidance together it certainly looks that way.  If the FV3 were to work out we'll be more on the southeastern edge, but we would still probably have a little fun on the tail-end with some snow and wind.  If that FV3 scenario works out you guys up there in CR/IC will have a very nice storm.  The amped nature of that further northwest track really cranks out heavy snowfall totals.  That would really max out the potential of this system compared to the slightly less amped/further southeast versions on other guidance.

You're even pretty good on the Ukie

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Differences in latitude of snow swath may be partly a signal of model rates of cooling of near-track boundary layers because I think this system is the kind that goes moderate rain to sleet to heavy wet snow along its track, warm sector never very robust and falls apart rapidly after 00z 27th, so it may not be only an issue of low track but this mixing and phase change recognition. And I think the actual outcome may be south of most guidance as a result. 

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