BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Shea said: I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. Well that’s good because the only severe weather we get here is snow. Wish we got more of it here. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Shea said: I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. Fort Drum gets crazy cold. They don’t receive a ton of snow in comparison to areas just south of there. But it might be a lot more snow than you are accustomed to Welcome! We love having new members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 26 minutes ago, Shea said: I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. I’m originally from Nashville, so I know the tornado outbreaks well! There’s nothing up here as insane as the large scale tornado outbreaks they get in the southeast. But huge lake effect events can be stunning, and there is always the possibility of devastating ice storms that cover a wide area — but that has also been known to happen in KY and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just got back from Chicago area...for my sons graduation from Navy Bootcamp (it’s still the living hell I remember it as being). Thankfully the storm timing wasn’t a week earlier. Would not have been helpful on graduation week. Not that it was warm there (30s) but I managed to miss the record cold here on Thanksgiving. I’ll gladly pass on that. Having been loosely in touch with weather for the past week or so...I noticed the WSW’s up north of here. I liked the previous unconsolidated Watch/Warning system better as in situations like this, when I’d see a Lake Effect Snow Watch up north, I knew it was something I could largely ignore here nearer to SYR. Just putting up generic WSWs takes a bit more sleuthing to figure out what’s going on (I figure it’s for projected LES on/near the Tug). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Shea said: Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. Welcome. You’ll see more than your fair share of “appreciable” winter weather up near the Drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Probably see more snow from the synoptic system then lake effect according to many of the ensemble members.. Biggest beneficiary is the hills south of Syracuse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Probably see more snow from the synoptic system the lake effect according to many of the ensemble members.. Biggest beneficiary is the hills south of Syracuse.. I can easily see this happening! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Maine and New Hampshire could get smoked this week. I hope areas east and southeast of Ontario and Erie get smoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Fv3 kinda showing what the nws was talking about.. Region wide light snow with embedded squalls corresponding with wind direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 From KBGM From Syracuse to Madison County and Utica, lake effect snows will generate 3 to 6 inches of accumulation. A few inches of new snow are expected from the Southern Tier into the southern portion of the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will average several degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 but we are confident the most persistent activity will stretch across Oneida County, especially the northern half, where several inches of snow accumulation is expected by Wednesday night. Good news for you Wolfie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 It appears from this vantage point that we will be seeing a more synoptic/hybrid lake enhanced snows on Wednesday for a good chunk of the CWA...my thoughts are most get some accums with the areas with of buffalo and tug hill to northern Oswego jackpotting off Ontario. After that we warm again and then another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I guess u shouldn't go against the euro lol Clear trend by both Nam Products, majority NW/WNW.. 3k nam looks Blah with light precip and marginal temps.. We went from a strong West-WSW band to some weak NW crap lol I guess at least everyone can join in the fun.. 12k Nam would be a nice median for everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 And the Rgem agrees, NWS will be making some big changes next updates , look at those surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 If we could get some of this as frozen it would make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Gfs up to near 8 inches for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Where do u see that? U have a better shot at a flood watch then WSW on the GFS.. The min temp on the GFS is 36 degrees through the entire event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Could the GFS be to warm ?, Sure, but verbatim it's rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Getting a little more excited for this one around these parts. Quite a few of the high res models have that convergent band running up the spine of Erie and hitting us. Obviously elevation is going to be huge and think Perrysburg gets the most out of this event. Thinking around 5-10" for the distant southtowns. 10-16" for Springville/Colden/Perrysburg. 3-6" for KBUF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Yeah, agreed.. Looking much better off erie..Colder air is to our south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Models have been terrible with this. That secondary low over northwest of Ontario was key to the strong tug band of LES. Now it's only the primary low. Cold air is marginal along ontario lakeshore. Long range still looks really active. Not so much for lake effect, but synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I see nothing but a rn/sn mix until Wed for lower elevations. 0 accumulations for South Shore or my area as well, way too warm, sorry! Seen this way too many times. I said Erie would do better days ago because of Temps! Higher elevations South of KSYR will do veyr very well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Keep in mind it's a long duration event, pretty much from tuesday morning until thurday morning.. So with light precip rates and temps just above freezing, probably not going to accumulate much.. OH well, always next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On the surface it doesn’t look terrible, I still think the model is still trying to spit out snow from the coastal, east of 81.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Haha All that talk about warm air hasn’t bothered the NWS..lol Now I want my 12-18” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haha All that talk about warm air hasn’t bothered the NWS..lol Now I want my 12-18” I’ll take my 8-12” and run! Don’t see that happening. 3-6” for KBUF and immediate Southtowns. 6-10” for distant Southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 All I’m hearing is “higher elevations “ yet they have 12”-18” Down to parish.. THURSDAY/... Complex forecast this period. Consolidated surface low near the New England coast Tuesday will rotate slowly into northern New England by Wednesday. On the western side of the low, colder air will build into the area during the day Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures just cold enough to support snow, especially across the higher terrain. Favorable moisture profiles, a westerly fetch and upsloping will maintain steadier snows east of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Snow ratio should be rather inefficient for accumulating snows across lower elevations, with better ratios across the hills south and east of Buffalo and over the Tug Hill. Expect 2-3 inches of snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie with 3-5 inches possible on the Tug Hill. Elsewhere, snow showers should only accumulate an inch or so. Tuesday night into Wednesday night, thermal profiles do not change all that much with 850 mb temperatures remaining around -8C. Boundary layer cooling improves, but it continues to look like a combination snow event having both a synoptic and lake effect component with some lake and orographic enhancement. Upslope and lake components will play a big role with significantly more snow expected across higher terrain although there should be some snow accumulation in all areas. Lake enhancement could bring locally high amounts east of the lakes during this time. These areas could see localized amounts of up to a foot. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect east of Lake Ontario. Greater forecast confidence has been gained to issue a Winter Storm Watch east of Lake Erie. Lake effect snow will continue Wednesday night, but snowfall rates will diminish. Several inches of new snowfall will be possible across higher terrain due to upsloping. Snow showers will then linger Thursday, with only light additional accumulation expected. This long-term snow event beginning late tonight and lasting into Wednesday night will likely produce some fairly impressive storm totals. Due to the marginal thermal profiles, the greatest amounts should be across higher terrain, but accumulating snows are likely just about everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 NWS still calling this a west event lol Up to a foot overnight tues night, where? They refuse to give in to current modeling .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 NWS must be using these models.. They are the only 2 models that bring a region wide moderate-heavy snow event.. !2z coming out now, lets see how consistent it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 How much snow is city of Oswego looking at guys??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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