BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Has Euro EPS support, but overall the models have low verification scores right now. Anything beyond a week is guesswork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Eps mean 2m temps for fulton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Majority see at least something from the gfs and Fv3 .. Mean wind direction is looking wsw at the moment imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Wind direction is deceiving with this one. We will likely have a convergent band as we will likely have two different wind directions. We saw that in the northern portion of the Nov 2014 band. I think the southtowns have a chance at being on the northern portion, but this is likely a ski country event. I'm seeing mainly a west flow, with some WSW flow along the southern portion of the band. It goes NW towards the end of the event and dies out as we lose moisture and fetch. It still has potential as we are still not even in NAM range yet, but not getting too excited for this one. As already posted we have some decent analogs showing up as atmospheric matches which gives some credence to the "feet" of snow KBUF talked about in the forecast discussion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Can see the contour of the winds WSW/SW towards Cleveland and W towards Buffalo. You can also see the weak low pressure system a couple hundred miles north of Ontario. Plenty of moisture, decently aligned flow, enough cold air, should be a good event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can see the contour of the winds WSW/SW towards Cleveland and W towards Buffalo. You can also see the weak low pressure system a couple hundred miles north of Ontario. Plenty of moisture, decently aligned flow, enough cold air, should be a good event. Yeah that LP needs to be about 300 miles to the west right above lake superior foe a metro event. Like I said earlier this shaping up to be a nickle and dime year for the Niagara Frontier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 That above looks to be mainly WNW wind direction. Erie PA is the new spot to be for Lake Erie lake effect. Pretty incredible run they've been on. Looks wnw for Erie and west for ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Kinda starts out that way.. Prob 280 vector, moving to 270 and then 260ish.. Obviously different wind directions off both lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Kinda starts out that way.. Prob 280 vector, moving to 270 and then 260ish.. 260 is usually good for me. 270 is more Boston/Colden. That above is 280-300 degs off of Erie. It's a good setup for the southern tug, which would include your location. Should be your biggest event so far this season. (Lake effect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 If this was true WNW i would think KFZY would be in the heart of the band not the southern fringes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Whoevers praying for a wsw-w for a three day period need to keep praying, seriously! This is a WNW-NW wind yr and this, believe it or not, happens every so often and 02-03 was one of those rare yrs. Not saying this yrs going to mimic it to a T, but it's off to an great start for WNW and NW belts that's a fact. KFZY and KSYR both above Normal so far but that too can change.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Whoevers praying for a wsw-w for a three day period need to keep praying, seriously! This is a WNW-NW wind yr and this, believe it or not, happens every so often and 02-03 was one of those rare yrs. Not saying this yrs going to mimic it to a T, but it's off to an great start for WNW and NW belts that's a fact. KFZY and KSYR both above Normal so far but that too can change. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk There is no such thing as a NW year or SW year. Just doesn't happen. Each lake effect event is unique, that statement is 100% incorrect and backed by data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This is gonna be a KFZY special, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If this was true WNW i would think KFZY would be in the heart of the band not the southern fringes.. It's Westerly off of Ontario, WNW off of Erie. (Primary flow with oscillations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 02-03 had several large WSW/SW flow LES events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 lol WNW/NW year U picked up 90% of your snowfall from a synoptic event.. The only WNW event busted lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Have a feeling KROC is gonna have some fun with its winds. As was alluded to earlier, could be a super band in the finger lakes somewhere with converging winds aloft creating a nice environment for lift!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 lol WNW/NW year U picked up 90% of your snowfall from a synoptic event.. The only WNW event busted lolIf you believe that one, I'll tell ya another, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I'm not in a belt, we get ours from scraps left behind, lol. I'm in a transition zone, where the band falls off the lake, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Canadian is similar to the euro with a westerly-west north westerly flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 For those of us from the old WIVB weather blog we have a Don Paul sighting!!! It's in reply to the CFS V2 predicting a warmer December and January now and many people slamming the model for predicting a warm November as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 hey guys...i know the lake effect event is still a few days out..but how is it look preliminarily speaking for the city of oswego..wnw wind flow i would imagine would align well with our location..how much lake effect precipitation are we working with here..would love to know your feedback..i know snow totals are way to early to predict where banding sets up just wanted to get the discussion rolling a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2002-2003 was the definition of "dink and dunk" KFzy with 230" and yet only 1 notable Les events..(12+) Snowed 30 of the 31 days in jan with a max of 6" Feb was a much better month with 3 events of at least 8" ...The rest of the month was filled with trace-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 how much snow you thinking wolfie for the next lake effect event setting up for us next wk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 GFS basically cancels the LES event entirely. LP is way to close. Less cold air too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Still TBD Matt..Way to early..Our double barrel synoptic system is still 3000 miles away.. Have to wait till to the higher rez models to get into range for low level wind and precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Still Looks pretty good to me.. Top 18z, bottom 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Gfs just catching up to what the FV3 has been showing for 3 straight days.. God help us all when this becomes the regular gfs, one heck of a model..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Kbuf The aforementioned shortwave trough will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday night while a steady state surface low approaches the Western Southern Tier. There are differences in the model track of the surface low as we move into Monday. The 18z GFS takes it northwest of Buffalo while the 12z ECMWF moves it across Western NY and extends it into the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS solution would likely allow more rain and warmer temperatures where the ECMWF would suppress most of the moisture to the south and across the Mid- Atlantic region. Rainfall amounts will average a quarter inch before cold air arrives Monday evening. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 40`s Monday. Cold air advection will quickly begin quickly behind the departing surface low and rain will transition to snow showers Monday night. Winds will increase ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon with south-southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph especially northeast of the lakes. A strong westerly flow will persist Monday night with 850 temperatures falling to -12C across Lake Erie and -7C across Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning. This will support lake effect snow showers east of the lakes by Tuesday morning. An expansive upper-level trough will persist across much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through mid-week. This will result in cold, westerly flow across the region and promote a period of lake effect snow. The coldest air will likely arrive after a shortwave trough tracks from the western Great Lakes and to the Ohio Valley. Temperatures at 850mb will average between -15 to -10 Wednesday into Thursday. This combined with synoptic moisture and enhanced lift will lead to the potential for significant, warning level accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau and western Southern Tier. Temperatures will run well below normal with daytime highs in the 30`s Tuesday-Thursday and nighttime lows in the 20`s. This averages ten degrees below normal for the last week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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