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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2018-19 snowfall contest

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29 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yeah I think from now on, due to popular demand, I'm just gonna post the entire list each time. Let me know if you find any differences between your list and mine- I am appointing you Special Counsel to overlook any possible malfeasance in this contest committed by its president. :-)

Just finished, Mr President, no foreign interference found anywhere. My list is back on January 14th, since you've posted the entire list, I won't bother moving it to this page but it has pretty colors to look at. 

By the way, LYH added 3.2" and is at 19.6" now. SBY was still missing as of last check, did it snow over there? They were at 5.0" before this event. 

All kidding aside, just one big storm and this whole exercise becomes academic.

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57 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

All kidding aside, just one big storm and this whole exercise becomes academic.

Yeah, I was thinking about what the theoretical max is at this point- you get a March 1892/1960 + April 1915/1924 and it’s probably like another 20-30” at the airports.

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7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


Dang man. He jipped you! emoji23.png


.

 

Hey- he was supposed to pay me off a few weeks ago to have his records expunged, now he's all back in today just because the FV3 gives him a BECS at like 1,000 hours out! All sales are final!

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I just added 12" at BWI-IAD, 8" at DCA and 4" at RIC, which is the over-under on what I expect this pattern to produce now to end of contest.

That gives the following top six: 

1. Shadowzone ___ 6.1"

2. BTRwxT-G _____8.2"

2. Prestige ww ___ 8.2"

4. NorthBaltiZen __ 8.4"

5. Mappy ________ 8.6"

6. wxwatch007 ___ 9.9"

 

The maximum that could conceivably be added might be 20" at BWI-IAD, 15" at DCA and 8" at RIC. That gives this top six finish:

1. OnceinaLifetime2009 ____ 12.0"

2. southMDwatcher ________12.1"

3. budice2002 ____________ 13.0"

4. Roger Smith ___________ 13.1"

5. Jakkelwx ______________ 13.6"

6. High Stakes ____________13.8"

 

Half way from the over-under to the extreme, it's Cobalt in the lead but mostly the same leaders as above. So there's a group around 30th to 40th place now who could do quite well with perhaps one big storm or two moderate ones and a few minor top ups. 

Let's say there's just one more event and it goes south, so I add 2" to the northern three and 12" to RIC, then this is the outcome:

1. stormPC _____________ 14.2"

2. Grothar in Herndon ____ 16.3"

3. Prince Frederick wx ____ 16.5"

4. weather53 ___________ 20.7"

5. Chris78 ______________21.0"

6. RodneyS _____________22.3"

__________________________________________________

How about an oddball event that nails IAD and is skimpy at BWI? 

Adding 2" at BWI, 4" at DCA, 8" at IAD and 2" at RIC gives this outcome:

1. NorthArlington101 ____ 12.1"

2. winterwxluvr ________ 12.8"

3. wxwatcher007 _______ 13.7"

4. millvillewx ___________14.0"

5. Yoda _______________14.4"

6. gopper _____________ 14.7"

______________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Stormpc said:

As a soon to be 2 time winner,  I take no pleasure in hoping it doesnt snow again. Just send me my trophy back. 

+/- 0.1 for us at DCA.  Closet to pin I think!

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Since ENSO events began to be tracked during the winter of 1949-50, weak El Ninos have averaged 2.6 inches of snow at DCA during March and April, with the range being a trace on three occasions to 8.3 inches in 1978 (12 prior weak El Ninos).

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8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I hope that I end up in 25th place.

I think I need a Blizzard of 78 repeat.

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40 of 59 forecasters still have not reached their forecast snowfalls at any of four locations. An additional four have only passed RIC. 

In addition, only one tiebreaker forecast has been surpassed, none of the three for LYH so it's one at SBY. However, recent snow remains "msg" if there was any, another tiebreaker forecast is within 0.4" of being overtaken without that. 

 

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On 2/21/2019 at 11:18 AM, showmethesnow said:

Think I would much rather have my KU then yours. Yours would be a foot/foot and a half through Balt/DC whereas mine would be upwards of 3 feet. I know which I would prefer. :)

And I need about 3-5" more than yours, so lets have MY scenario play out! :D

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Daily Climate Report numbers are out, they are the same as this morning, so here's the updated spreadsheet. Indeed, we have a tie.

As for the tiebreaker:  @Stormpc forecast 16.8" and @olafminesaw forecast 8.7", both at SBY. The total currently at SBY is 5.0", so Olaf wins in a tiebreaker.

@nw baltimore wx has now been mathematically eliminated (sorry man...).

@Bob Chill is in a very good spot now IMHO despite busting on DCA.

See @RodneyS, BWI can jackpot over IAD! These were the thread-the-needle totals that are still keeping you in the game!

Full list.JPG

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

See @RodneyS, BWI can jackpot over IAD! These were the thread-the-needle totals that are still keeping you in the game!

 

Today's storm was a thread-the-needle masterpiece for me.  I still need at least 2.2 inches at BWI and no more than 2.9 inches at IAD, but that's more doable than what I needed prior to today, which was at least 4.4 inches at BWI and no more than 3.5 inches at IAD. 

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5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

:angry:

Is it still possible to get a podium finish?

If Sterling revises the totals enough, you can still win it.  ;)  Otherwise, it looks as if you could finish 2nd, behind Weather53 by only 0.3, if you nail BWI. 

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Me too. I'm currently drowning my sorrows by eating half a tube of Pillsbury cinnamon rolls.

That a nice consolation prize.

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I will update my tables back in the thread when any additions are made tomorrow, think it's possible this storm could intensify, draw in some colder air overnight, and surprise a few people by morning. But I am not counting on it. 

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I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). 

I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance. 

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3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). 

I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance. 

Yeah I gotta update the spreadsheet. This is getting really close, especially with BWI. Gonna have to figure out the "playoff scenarios" lol

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