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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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3 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

LOL, I made this reply to OHweather's post back on Jan 27th, and part of what he said is "It’s even worse in the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor where they’ve largely missed out the last two weeks (and Boston has been hilariously futile so far)."  Guess what, I didn't have to go, but my boss did, and Boston is getting crushed today!  HAHAHAHAAAA!!!!  Hanscom AFB had early dismissal!...

Crushed? Not for long.

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18 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Crushed? Not for long.

Ok you have proved you're incapable of getting peoples "Obvious Point" in their posts.  Let me explain another one for you, last month when I said 'blizzard of '19 in Boston' is was meant to be funny as I could potentially be fighting the bad weather conditions if it happened on my trip since Boston hasn't had a bad winter storm all season. Then in my post yesterday the Point of my post (in which everyone on this forum who read it) was my boss was in Boston actually fighting the bad weather they had and NOT ME, and that is funny. Unfortunately you somehow latched onto the benign fact that Boston actually wasn't getting a blizzard or being crushed, but for someone from the Dayton Ohio region being in Boston during a bad winter storm trying to navigate 10 lane interstates in a rental car and that person is your (my) boss you missed!

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the extended is rapidly turning into a dumpster fire.... starting with the late weekend event that now looks like it's heading north and leaving us with light rain.   After that signs that the se ridge starts winning the battle.   I just hope it goes ape sh*t crazy if it's going to ruin snow chances....go big or go away.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

the extended is rapidly turning into a dumpster fire.... starting with the late weekend event that now looks like it's heading north and leaving us with light rain.   After that signs that the se ridge starts winning the battle.   I just hope it goes ape sh*t crazy if it's going to ruin snow chances....go big or go away.

Changes w/ MJO phase? Looked like for sure it was gonna get in 8.

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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

the extended is rapidly turning into a dumpster fire.... starting with the late weekend event that now looks like it's heading north and leaving us with light rain.   After that signs that the se ridge starts winning the battle.   I just hope it goes ape sh*t crazy if it's going to ruin snow chances....go big or go away.

Yeah, first one just skirts me to the south, the next one starts as snow then gives most of Ohio rain. The 180, re Gfs, looks promising but you know it will change...

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6 hours ago, buckeye said:

the extended is rapidly turning into a dumpster fire.... starting with the late weekend event that now looks like it's heading north and leaving us with light rain.   After that signs that the se ridge starts winning the battle.   I just hope it goes ape sh*t crazy if it's going to ruin snow chances....go big or go away.

Outside of the 3 weeks in January this has been a dumpster fire of a winter for central OH. I was hoping it would end with a bang next week or so, but that ridge ain't moving. :facepalm:

#readyforspring

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Let's bring on spring. Pattern sucks and I couldn't care less about March snows. Itll just melt in a day. Unless its 2 feet, I'd rather it just torch. It's quite comical how wrong every winter outlook was for here. I dont even think we're gonna reach average lol

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25 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Let's bring on spring. Pattern sucks and I couldn't care less about March snows. Itll just melt in a day. Unless its 2 feet, I'd rather it just torch. It's quite comical how wrong every winter outlook was for here. I dont even think we're gonna reach average lol

We've reached average for year here in SE Indiana but it's melted so fast every time that it doesn't seem like it..

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19 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Changes w/ MJO phase? Looked like for sure it was gonna get in 8.

Sounds like we are in phase 8 so something else clearly driving this poopy pattern. 

JB has his towel in hand BTW. LOL

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8 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Sounds like we are in phase 8 so something else clearly driving this poopy pattern. 

JB has his towel in hand BTW. LOL

I keep expecting to see the mjo chart suddenly change to show us going into the cod or back tracking to 7...and yet it only gets stronger into 8 and 1 with each update.  Not only that, but the SOI is crashing.   JB does sound defeated but a few days after his epic meltdown in January, everything switched to a colder look.    I wonder if models will suddenly snap back like that.  If not, than yea, the mjo is certainly not ruling the pattern now.

As of now, the rest of Feb looks like a typical hum drum depressing, uneventful, gross Ohio Feb.

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On 2/14/2019 at 9:33 AM, buckeye said:

I keep expecting to see the mjo chart suddenly change to show us going into the cod or back tracking to 7...and yet it only gets stronger into 8 and 1 with each update.  Not only that, but the SOI is crashing.   JB does sound defeated but a few days after his epic meltdown in January, everything switched to a colder look.    I wonder if models will suddenly snap back like that.  If not, than yea, the mjo is certainly not ruling the pattern now.

As of now, the rest of Feb looks like a typical hum drum depressing, uneventful, gross Ohio Feb.

Why do I get the feeling we are in for a cold/cool spring? -NAO will probably pop. Always untimely. Shows up early fall & in spring it seems lately. 

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5 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Why do I get the feeling we are in for a cold/cool spring? -NAO will probably pop. Always untimely. Shows up early fall & in spring it seems lately. 

I doubt that happens again. There was a major strat warming in early February that predicted a major blocking period............not this year. It sucks the post-cross polar flow patterns is a big bleh, but it is what it is.

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Well, DTX pretty much much sums it up for much of the sub forum......talk about a rock and hard spot, lol.

Relentless pattern of anticyclonic wave breaking over the NPAC & CWB
over the NATL domain will continue for the duration of the extended
period courtesy of a retracted Pacific jet and active STJ extending
across the USA. This will, at least, result in stagnation of the
current pattern but will more likely favor some degree of longwave
amplification accompanied by a tendency for retrogression of the
mean storm track when energy occasionally ejects from the western US
trough. The forecast is therefore one that migrates toward
increasingly mild outcomes with time. The best chances for snow will
require suppression from the polar jet which will in turn limit
amplification potential and subsequent impact potential while deeper
cyclones will be far more likely to track west of the area and bring
snow-mix-ra transitions. The first manifestations of this tendency
are Sunday`s suppressed low-impact snow potential (discussed above)
followed by 12z NWP depictions of a warmer STJ-influenced system
lifting west of the CWA mid-week next week.

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At least we don't have to worry about the pitiful event mid-week event. Much like buckeye says, only care about historic potential events from now on. A further west superstorm 93 would be cool in March for example. A 2-4 inch turd............bleh. I would rather be in the warm sector.

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Moderate to heavy sleet/freezing rain band just rolled through here. Got caught out walking the dog and the sleet wasn’t the typical pellet form, but rather chunks of ice. It actually stung lol. Temps are hovering right at 31/32 so we’ll see if it rises and changes to plain rain. There is some dripping off elevates surfaces, but I blame the heavy rate equally as the temps. 

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25 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Remember the good old days....e e rule? 

Starting to get a little interesting.  Euro and nam jumping to the same solution 2.5 days out.   Have to see whether the gfs wants to play ball too.

Snip-it_1550436779728.jpg

Kuchera map is not as impressed especially farther south where the change is quicker. Same goes for 12z Euro Kuchera.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

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2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Not a chance.

Right, big surges of moisture running into a high pressure and cold air never produce snow.  

I wouldn’t lock this one in yet but stranger things have happened.  I think you guys should root for a faster solution as the high eventually retreats, so the more precip before then the better. 

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15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Right, big surges of moisture running into a high pressure and cold air never produce snow.  

I wouldn’t lock this one in yet but stranger things have happened.  I think you guys should root for a faster solution as the high eventually retreats, so the more precip before then the better. 

:lol: exactly, sure it's a long shot but there's nothing complicated about it.  I mean it's not like we're dealing with model feedback issues etc. 

It's simply all about timing in a race between a departing high and incoming moisture.   

The fact that models are starting to see more front end frozen as the 60 to 72 hr window approaches, is something worth watching, trend-wise, if nothing else.

 

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13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

:lol: exactly, sure it's a long shot but there's nothing complicated about it.  I mean it's not like we're dealing with model feedback issues etc. 

It's simply all about timing in a race between a departing high and incoming moisture.   

The fact that models are starting to see more front end frozen as the 60 to 72 hr window approaches, is something worth watching, trend-wise, if nothing else.

 

Yeah. One of those where I’m not excited, but it’s pretty easy to see how it happens and more than a couple Euro runs have hinted at it.  You guys are a good storm away from clinching an average or above snowfall winter somehow and as much as March snow is undesirable for some, it’s not like there’d be nice weather otherwise...so front end warning thump snow would be fun. 

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14 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah. One of those where I’m not excited, but it’s pretty easy to see how it happens and more than a couple Euro runs have hinted at it.  You guys are a good storm away from clinching an average or above snowfall winter somehow and as much as March snow is undesirable for some, it’s not like there’d be nice weather otherwise...so front end warning thump snow would be fun. 

 Its actually easy to understand why models fail. ECMWF can't tell the difference between sleet,freezing rain and calls it snow. How many more "failures" does one need to look at this winter? The ECMWF and the post-24 hour NAM have been atrocious this winter. Simply put, the programmers need to be called out. Putting "snow" in there when the freaking upper level wave is over western Illinois is dumber than hell. The WAA lift will be intense.

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

 Its actually easy to understand why models fail. ECMWF can't tell the difference between sleet,freezing rain and calls it snow. How many more "failures" does one need to look at this winter? The ECMWF and the post-24 hour NAM have been atrocious this winter. Simply put, the programmers need to be called out. Putting "snow" in there when the freaking upper level wave is over western Illinois is dumber than hell. The WAA lift will be intense.

Yeah, but it can snow ahead of an upper low. It eventually goes to something else, but that intense WAA running into a stubborn high/cold air can wring out a good amount of precip.  The Euro does not count sleet or ice as snow...it used to years ago but does not anymore.  The NAM does count sleet/ZR as snow 10:1 snow, though other products such as “positive snow depth change” don’t and show accumulating snow with this.  It’s easy to take the under on the 8-9” of snow the Euro spits out...but with a push of moisture and cold in front of it some sort of snow isn’t hard to envision.  N NJ got 8-12” of WAA front end thump in November with the upper low to our west, it can and does happen (though often not to that extent). 

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43 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, but it can snow ahead of an upper low. It eventually goes to something else, but that intense WAA running into a stubborn high/cold air can wring out a good amount of precip.  The Euro does not count sleet or ice as snow...it used to years ago but does not anymore.  The NAM does count sleet/ZR as snow 10:1 snow, though other products such as “positive snow depth change” don’t and show accumulating snow with this.  It’s easy to take the under on the 8-9” of snow the Euro spits out...but with a push of moisture and cold in front of it some sort of snow isn’t hard to envision.  N NJ got 8-12” of WAA front end thump in November with the upper low to our west, it can and does happen (though often not to that extent). 

January 1999 is a great example locally.  That low tracked near Chicago and we got all snow.  By the time the warm air took over we were left with freezing drizzle, after about 9".   Of course this is no where near as dynamic a system as that was and the HP was probably stronger too.

Regardless, whether we get snow or not out of this, there are lots of examples of accumulating snows out ahead of a low taking an imperfect track for us.  Not at all unusual.   I mean this is basic meteorology, I would think even Angry would understand it.

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