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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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1 minute ago, Dustin said:

The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me.  What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning?  This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession...

You guys must absolutely HATE social media....lol...I don't blame you.

My first gut punch was when the 00z nam came in much warmer...I had a bad feeling at that point even though the gfs held.

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Have to believe that the school districts that canceled today's events are ticked - our district sent out a text blast yesterday afternoon canceling all events. 

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You guys must absolutely HATE social media....lol...I don't blame you.

My first gut punch was when the 00z nam came in much warmer...I had a bad feeling at that point even though the gfs held.

NAM nailed it. King failed miserably 

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Just now, buckeye said:

hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm :weenie:

Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area.  I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining.  All I recall after that is being off school for a week. 

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We should probably start taking bets on how busy emergency crews will be when people yelling bust are stranded on ice and snow several hours from now....

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm :weenie:

This what I hold on to when the bigger storms are a little wonky.

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm :weenie:

Man that was an awesome storm... heavy rain that changed quickly over to snow with temps plummeting with riduculous winds...at least we have that memory!

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Just now, Crowbar said:

Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area.  I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining.  All I recall after that is being off school for a week. 

I was in Columbus.  It was drizzling and foggy all day.   The sound of the roaring wind woke me up around 4 in the morning, I thought a truck was parked outside reving it's engine, I looked out and you couldn't see across the street....no power and my folks turned on their batter radio and governor Rhodes was making an emergency address.   They say once in a lifetime for that one.

 

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58 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

WTVN says that PA Turnpike going to be shut down for commercial vehicles until tomorrow. 

Latest HRRR drives low right into W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain....    talk about a bust if that happens

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Latest HRRR drives low right inot W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain....    talk about a bust if that happens

This reminds me of the Saturday from I think 2005 - didn't have the ability to work from home so went to the office with a Winter Storm Warning calling for 8-12".  Got to the office early, worked for several hours, then looked outside and saw nothing.  Logged into the NWS site and saw the WSW was downgraded to a WWA.  Went back to my desk for a few hours, looked out again, and still nothing.  Went back to NWS site and they removed the WWA.    That was a total bust. 

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Per CMH airport winds have switched to North as it was primarily East all day.  Would suspect we are getting more in a position with the low where temps start dropping soon.  Meso on SPC shows 850’s heading south.

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56 minutes ago, buckeye said:

you're probably done with liquid....that cold air is pressing pretty good from the nw now starting to dry out Michigan and N.IN

Nope pouring zr again. Trees and powerlines are covered now.

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I should have put the caveat....I meant straight rain

Even worse.... 18z models show me dryslotting. I may be doa lol. 19z hrrr shows an inch for all of us south of i30 now. This storms is done boys. Time to wrap er up and put it to sleep.

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1 hour ago, Dustin said:

The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me.  What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning?  This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession...

I'm going to take an armchair guess and it was something that concerned me all week  I don't think the globals were handling the convection down south and the heat content being pumped up from the gulf very well.  that's why we would see a run with 6 inches then a run with 15 then a run with 6.  Like Buckeye when I saw that NAM run it really perked my ears.  It is the NAM, but it usually sniffs out the WAA pretty well.  On top of that the globals never got their shit together on where and when any phasing would occur, a lot of that due to not handling the heat pump from the south well in the first place.  Plus no full sampling of the SW until less than 24 hours out really didn't help either.

I never fully bought into this storm as soon as I saw it go from progressive to a late cutter.  I did expect a little more than what I've gotten and definitely didn't expect the amount of ice here over 1/4 inch.  It's not over by any means and I think points to my east should do fairly well as the evening progresses.  Just my weenie thoughts :weenie:

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Good to see the snow line moving south now.  Bradford and Greenville are both roughly  west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses.  I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5.   

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8 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Good to see the snow line moving south now.  Bradford and Greenville are both roughly  west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses.  I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5.   

Radar is back to showing me as snow, still zr. Nice coating of ice though. Lost 3hrs on ice, yet if the switch is coming wonder why the short term models aren't showing much accums, such as hrrr only showing an inch?

20190119_155026-picsay.jpg.961d63ab0184b6d68b4ca92f4790daae.jpg

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9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Good to see the snow line moving south now.  Bradford and Greenville are both roughly  west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses.  I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5.   

thats seems way too fast I'm thinking much later like 9.     

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The HRRR and RAP are looking like disasters.  By the time we go to snow, we get dry slotted.  Here’s hoping they’re wrong.

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