Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Only a couple scattered flakes/pellets here as this area is about the worst area in WNY for a NW flow. Still was nice to see any kind of frozen precip so not trying to complain. Mother in law up in Amherst had a full dusting of snow/graupel even on the roads last night.

Yes we did...in fact im kinda questioning the temps here...went to the store this morning at 5:15 and when I turned on the windshield wipers to wick away what I thought was just slush was frozen solid to the windshield. The hood was the same way and looking on the hot tub cover as the sun is poking through I can see the water and pellets are frozen to that as well...i didn't think that could happen at 35...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The winter forecast hinges largely on the 75% chance that an El Niño event — characterized by warming waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean — develops in the coming months and lasts through the season, which for meteorologists begins December 1, according to NOAA.

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which could “influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nws almost always predicts warm every year. 
This has been true for the last 25yrs as I really cant think of a yr that they didnt forecast a full torch wire to wire. As long as they know they are wrong every year, then who cares. The Farmers Almanac does a better job than the NWS does on their seasonal outlook, and that's sad.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The winter forecast hinges largely on the 75% chance that an El Niño event — characterized by warming waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean — develops in the coming months and lasts through the season, which for meteorologists begins December 1, according to NOAA.

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which could “influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides.

El nino already exists so what are they talking about? They base their forecast every year on ENSO, so whats the difference this yr?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Well equal chances or warm. Never once have I seen chances in northeast for below average in a winter seasonal outlook

That's because it doesn't happen aside from 2013-2014. It's very rare to get below normal Nov-March temps. So I can see why they go equal or above each year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

That's because it doesn't happen aside from 2013-2014. It's very rare to get below normal Nov-March temps. So I can see why they go equal or above each year. 

Sorry but this is False. The winter of 14-15 (-4.8) was actually colder at KBUF then 13-14 (-4.0) was. Also last year was also below normal albeit slightly but we still finished at 0.7 below average for the winter and had it not been for the 6th warmest February on record (mostly because of an incredible record breaking 2 week stretch) we would have finished further below normal. I’m not saying that we’re below average often, and with global warming it definitley seems that things are on the positive anomaly side than the negative one, but to say the winter of 13-14 was the only below average winter is wrong. I too believe with a weak nino we will see average to slightly below average temperatures but could easily see that change if El Niño becomes stronger than forecast or we get stuck on the wrong end of a stubborn teleconnection. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Sorry but this is False. The winter of 14-15 (-4.8) was actually colder at KBUF then 13-14 (-4.0) was. Also last year was also below normal albeit slightly but we still finished at 0.7 below average for the winter and had it not been for the 6th warmest February on record (mostly because of an incredible record breaking 2 week stretch) we would have finished further below normal. I’m not saying that we’re below average often, and with global warming it definitley seems that things are on the positive anomaly side than the negative one, but to say the winter of 13-14 was the only below average winter is wrong. I too believe with a weak nino we will see average to slightly below average temperatures but could easily see that change if El Niño becomes stronger than forecast or we get stuck on the wrong end of a stubborn teleconnection. 

I use Dec-March timeframe for winter usually not Dec-Feb, maybe that's where I'm coming from. Either way only one below average year in the last 8. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/coopdata

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...