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I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. 

Image may contain: sky, outdoor and nature Image may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, nature and outdoorImage may contain: 1 person, smiling, outdoor and nature

Image may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: sky, cloud, mountain, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: ocean, cloud, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, nature and outdoorImage may contain: ocean, sky, beach, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: outdoor, water and natureImage may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, outdoor and nature

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. 

Image may contain: sky, outdoor and nature Image may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, nature and outdoorImage may contain: 1 person, smiling, outdoor and nature

Image may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: sky, cloud, mountain, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: ocean, sky, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: ocean, cloud, sky, outdoor, nature and waterImage may contain: mountain, sky, nature and outdoorImage may contain: ocean, sky, beach, outdoor, nature and water

Image may contain: outdoor, water and natureImage may contain: mountain, outdoor and natureImage may contain: mountain, sky, cloud, outdoor and nature

When and where are you gonna be out west? Cuz I'm out west and need some adventure haha

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Late Feb/Early March me and some buddies want to go out west to ski/board. We're thinking California or Colorado. 

Ahh. Okay. I will not be able to join you. That's when I go for my workshop and radar certification in Norman. I'm excited about that one. We NEED to get together and do a chase. Snow, severe, whatever. I'm down lol

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Ahh. Okay. I will not be able to join you. That's when I go for my workshop and radar certification in Norman. I'm excited about that one. We NEED to get together and do a chase. Snow, severe, whatever. I'm down lol

Definitely! What about Nov-Jan range for some Lake effect chases to Wolfie/Tughills house? :thumbsup:

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KBUF:
A secondary cold front will usher in colder temperatures Wednesday morning. Lake induced instability will increase as 850mb temperatures fall back near -5 deg C and lake effect rain showers are likely with enhancement southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this time, the mid-level trough will promote a connection from upstream lakes. Lake effect showers will persist into Wednesday night with an enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool night is expected with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s and even the 20s at higher elevations. Rain may start to mix in and possibly even change over to snow at some locations.

I think this has the possibility to drop our first trace/2" in areas of highest elevations in CNY. S. Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Otsego has the best chances of seeing snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame as they have the highest bumps but it'll be a close call in the lower elevations for sure.



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14 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

KBUF:
A secondary cold front will usher in colder temperatures Wednesday morning. Lake induced instability will increase as 850mb temperatures fall back near -5 deg C and lake effect rain showers are likely with enhancement southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this time, the mid-level trough will promote a connection from upstream lakes. Lake effect showers will persist into Wednesday night with an enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool night is expected with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s and even the 20s at higher elevations. Rain may start to mix in and possibly even change over to snow at some locations.

I think this has the possibility to drop our first trace/2" in areas of highest elevations in CNY. S. Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Otsego has the best chances of seeing snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame as they have the highest bumps but it'll be a close call in the lower elevations for sure.



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If the lower elevations or nearly anywhere gets 2 inches of snow there will be some tree issues.  Trees in the ROC area have just started to change and are still fully leafed out.  Would certainly be an interesting and early first significant accumulation.  It's been many years since I've seen accumulating snow in ROC before November.  

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For a good LES season do you need it to be AN in October generally? Is that to have a larger temp contrast between the lakes and air temperatures?

Yeah, it's tough to get any good LES until November and even then usually later in the month. It's not as important off Ontario as Erie. But the greater difference in temperature between the lake and the air aloft causes intense bands in early season events. If the water is cooler by the time the first few events happen the band is not as strong. You can look through this database, which shows all the LES events. There are lots in November. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive

 

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Speaking of lake temps, just came across this interesting tidbit from one of my all time favorite LES storms. Dec 9-12 1995. 

The BUFKIT and 
BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and 
associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake 
Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both 
models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during 
Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but 
the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was 
closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector 
for most of Sunday. This made all the difference in the world for 
Buffalo ...as a 10 mile shift brought the heaviest snow into the 
city rather than keeping it over the South Towns. This could be 
because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the 
models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air 
worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow 
more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models 
indicated.  Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much 
with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from 
the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the 
Lakes.  This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still 
occurs.
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Speaking of lake temps, just came across this interesting tidbit from one of my all time favorite LES storms. Dec 9-12 1995. 
The BUFKIT and BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector for most of Sunday. This made all the difference in the world for Buffalo ...as a 10 mile shift brought the heaviest snow into the city rather than keeping it over the South Towns. This could be because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models indicated.  Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the Lakes.  This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still occurs.

Interesting indeed!

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