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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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7 hours ago, NGTim said:

Couldn't chase Sat night because of family obligations, so we left out of GA on Sunday morning, and headed up through Clayton toward Asheville. In hindsight probably should have gone up 85 and then to Asheville and maybe could have seen some falling before lunch.   So we were between the front end and back end, and had to get back Sunday night.  Saw snow on the ground soon as I crossed the county line out of Lumpkin co.  Waynesville was lot of snow, and Asheville was beautiful.  We walked all around and even found a place open to eat pizza, so not too bad.   Even though nothing falling from the sky, decided to go home via Hendersonville and I 85 cause had seen they got hit pretty hard . (didn't have time to head toward Beech/Boone).  Stopped at Ingles in H-ville and the snow piles were crazy. Kids got to play in the fresh snow there and sled a bit. They all said it was the deepest they'd ever walked in, so that was good.   it was like cement. I would have loved to see that come down.  I am about to write a break up letter to snow, cause seems i just can not re-create that 18 inches i experienced in the second grade.  But its my fault, not the snow.  One day, One day, I am going to get in a two footer.  I may have to retire first.   But I did just want to say congrats to all in this thread, cause I enjoy following and reading all winter long, and am happy that I think most of you got a widespread hammering.  Here's to hoping for more of the same as we get into the heart of winter.   One thing I really enjoyed was watching this thing modeled way out on the FV3, and not really believing it, and wondering if this new model was just crazy, or this was just good timing for it to make its winter debut. 

Glad you got in on some of this action Tim.  I think you probably did the best thing as Beech said they got 24 but I was here and it was not 24.  LOL.  But it was still super nice to see.  Waynesville and Hendersonville were some jackpot areas so you didn't miss out on going further north.  The winds were insane up here on Beech so it didn't just all lay down up on the mountain but the drifts were cool.  Personally the 3 inch followup Sunday night I enjoyed more as it fell nice and steady with pretty much a calm wind and just accumulated on everything without blowing away.  LOL

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Just a quick note before I head back to Charleston. I finally after 126 hours have power back here in my little nook of Lake Lure. The majority of this area had power back on Wednesday and Thursday. What an awesome time. Thanks for the snowy hospitality!

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21 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

Looks like we have a good chance of snow 12/21-12/22 on the backside of a apps runner low

Yeah, I think so. According to the 00z FV3, vertically stacked lows at all levels pass right over on Friday. Surface temps are warm, but at elevation there should be something to see. Hoping to visit friends in Highlands this weekend so I think we may go up a day early now.

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On 12/15/2018 at 1:00 PM, Sw NC weather said:

Looks like we have a good chance of snow 12/21-12/22 on the backside of a apps runner low

 

On 12/16/2018 at 10:53 AM, Shack said:

Yeah, I think so. According to the 00z FV3, vertically stacked lows at all levels pass right over on Friday. Surface temps are warm, but at elevation there should be something to see. Hoping to visit friends in Highlands this weekend so I think we may go up a day early now.

Good call guys. GSP....

Developing northwest flow (gusty across the mtns) on the back side
of the system will advect colder air into the region supporting a
fairly rapid change over to snow across the mountains focused near
the TN border late Friday and continuing through part of Saturday
with shower activity rapidly ending east of the mountains.
Accumulating snowfall is likely across at least higher elevations
with advisory level snow a possibility.

Off topic a little, but who does the NWS write their forecast discussion for?  Surely it's not for the general public or people like us. 

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37 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

Off topic question...  Has anyone here been to the speedway in lights at Bristol?  Is it worth it? $15 a car... Thinking of taking the family tomorrow, thought I should get some opinions on the matter....

Having a family outing with your people at Christmastime is worth it. I'd go as high as 25 if there was ice cream involved afterwards.:santa:

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45 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

Off topic question...  Has anyone here been to the speedway in lights at Bristol?  Is it worth it? $15 a car... Thinking of taking the family tomorrow, thought I should get some opinions on the matter....

My wife and I did the Charlotte Speedway Christmas lights. It was $25 and felt it was well worth it.

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1 hour ago, The Alchemist said:

Off topic question...  Has anyone here been to the speedway in lights at Bristol?  Is it worth it? $15 a car... Thinking of taking the family tomorrow, thought I should get some opinions on the matter....

would consider where the profits are going...most of the time it's for a great cause like the Children's Burn Center, etcetera.

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7 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

Winds this evening are strong and pressing...my windows are singing and I lost a nice silver tarp...can't find it...it's probably in Sparta now :)

Interesting.  No wind here at all. A pretty cold morning also with a current temp of 28 degrees. 

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This morning's GFS continues to advertise a strong chance of snow across the mountains towards the end of the week. This flow is going to be a bit different though. With the low so deep and south of us the cold aid actually will wrap around from the SW... This means the southern mountains will change to snow before anyone else. We will eventually get a NW flow but that will not happen until the Low pulls east of us. A pretty neat setup really. I think this is mostly confined to the boarder counties but it is still early. 

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Also I would take note that this pattern is not a bad one to be in currently.  I have seen it a lot warmer than this and the 7 day forecast looks really good actually.  We are tracking some snow and temps look to be very seasonal especially going into the weekend.  So really all in all not bad at all. I have enjoyed the warm up a bit and its nice to see the sun shining. 

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Anyone checked out the FV3 for the end of the week? Doesnt really have much support but it goes bonkers snow wise considering the setup. edit. 6z was the run that went nuts, 12z calmed down a bit

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15 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Interesting.  No wind here at all. A pretty cold morning also with a current temp of 28 degrees. 

Yeah, we're about 100 miles NE of you and those winds were ripping last night when I made that post.  It's clear and cold here tonight with some icy patches freezing from the melting.  

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On 12/17/2018 at 9:37 PM, SnoJoe said:

Having a family outing with your people at Christmastime is worth it. I'd go as high as 25 if there was ice cream involved afterwards.:santa:

 

On 12/17/2018 at 9:51 PM, yotaman said:

My wife and I did the Charlotte Speedway Christmas lights. It was $25 and felt it was well worth it.

 

On 12/17/2018 at 10:49 PM, WeatherHawk said:

would consider where the profits are going...most of the time it's for a great cause like the Children's Burn Center, etcetera.

Off topic again... but wanted to thank you guys, Just home now from Bristol speedway, and a grand time was had by all, my daughter was terrorizing everyone in the Christmas village with her deft wheelchair antics!!!  Also, Funnel cakes and hot chocolate were involved, would have been worth it at twice the price!!!  Interesting though, we've got more fallen snow on the ground here in Saluda than anywhere along the way up there...

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On 12/17/2018 at 7:38 PM, SnoJoe said:

 

Good call guys. GSP....

Developing northwest flow (gusty across the mtns) on the back side
of the system will advect colder air into the region supporting a
fairly rapid change over to snow across the mountains focused near
the TN border late Friday and continuing through part of Saturday
with shower activity rapidly ending east of the mountains.
Accumulating snowfall is likely across at least higher elevations
with advisory level snow a possibility.

Off topic a little, but who does the NWS write their forecast discussion for?  Surely it's not for the general public or people like us. 

The AFD is kind of a dinosaur product. It was designed well before the internet and public access to coordinate thoughts and forecasts between the media, EMs, and surrounding WFOs. All the coordination is now done through AWIPS collaboration or NWSChat. The average public doesn't even know the AFD exists nor has a need for it. I imagine with "Evolve", the AFD will go away within the next 5-10 years.      

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5 hours ago, isohume said:

The AFD is kind of a dinosaur product. It was designed well before the internet and public access to coordinate thoughts and forecasts between the media, EMs, and surrounding WFOs. All the coordination is now done through AWIPS collaboration or NWSChat. The average public doesn't even know the AFD exists nor has a need for it. I imagine with "Evolve", the AFD will go away within the next 5-10 years.      

Please don't do away with the Area Forecast Discussions.   We live by them !

 

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