RedSky Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Weather World has snow to mix in the central and northern part of PA with a few inches possible, seriously? Evidently the warminsta borg have assimilated them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6abc....Cecily really emphasized mainly sleet after the brief beginning snow period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 ^ accuweather is Weather World so they are on the same page anyway. They also made a bold call for a record warm first half of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 0z NAM is the best of all worlds with a roughly 6hr thump of snow(for those not in coastal regions) then dryslot followed by light rain or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 As far as I know - Weather World is the Penn State University TV show based on their PSU meteorologists. Accuweather headquarters is in State College, but is totally independent of Weather World and has no overlap of the forecasters. My son has worked for both (now at Accuweather as an on air guy) and in his earlier years worked at Weather World. Other than being located in the same town and some of the Accuweather team being graduates of PSU there is no other relationship. They each create their own forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, Chief83 said: As far as I know - Weather World is the Penn State University TV show based on their PSU meteorologists. Accuweather headquarters is in State College, but is totally independent of Weather World and has no overlap of the forecasters. My son has worked for both (now at Accuweather as an on air guy) and in his earlier years worked at Weather World. Other than being located in the same town and some of the Accuweather team being graduates of PSU there is no other relationship. They each create their own forecast. For that matter there is an NWS outpost there. State college is the forecast capitol of the USA! NWS says 1.75"-4" inches for Pottstown, they don't really say what type will be falling and this is how much of that type-- more of a "there will be many types and the total will be between this and this and the type changes will be then then and then" What about EPAWA or whatever they call themselves now? Wind picking up now sounds like its Force 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, Chief83 said: As far as I know - Weather World is the Penn State University TV show based on their PSU meteorologists. Accuweather headquarters is in State College, but is totally independent of Weather World and has no overlap of the forecasters. My son has worked for both (now at Accuweather as an on air guy) and in his earlier years worked at Weather World. Other than being located in the same town and some of the Accuweather team being graduates of PSU there is no other relationship. They each create their own forecast. Interesting always thought they were related maybe it was because of Joe Bastardi and Elliot Abrams working there? Also their forecast thinking often mirrored the accu guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 0z GFS has put a significant buzzkill on the the snow train Thursday, maybe the para will look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z GFS has put a significant buzzkill on the the snow train Thursday, maybe the para will look better. NAM 12k and 3k seem overly optimistic. I will say that it's a rare treat to be tracking something like this in November though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z GFS has put a significant buzzkill on the the snow train Thursday, maybe the para will look better. typical dry southeast bias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 CMC is a white rainstorm going the wrong way here at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 44 minutes ago, RedSky said: CMC is a white rainstorm going the wrong way here at 0z uh oh... better cancel winter. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: uh oh... better cancel winter. hehe Yep it's over folks better luck next year, Weather World has us wearing shorts and holding drinks with lil umbrellas outside in three weeks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This will add to the confusion- the euro holds it's ground for I95 N&W 4-6" Philly and 10-12" Qtown It drops me to 1" Another thing the Weather.us site seems too generous with potential amounts the ECM site map is around 30% lower numbers. My early call is 2-3" Philly, 3-5" close N&W burbs, 5-8" northern sections and a brief start as snow with a coating out east here toward Bermuda. Lehigh Valley should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 So if we see any accumulations do they get factored into seasonal totals or do these statistically fall into autumn category? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So if we see any accumulations do they get factored into seasonal totals or do these statistically fall into autumn category? I say the seasonal total so we can pad them as much as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So if we see any accumulations do they get factored into seasonal totals or do these statistically fall into autumn category? Good question. Practically no Mets come into here so maybe post this in the Mid Atlantic/DC subforum where more Mets migrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 On 11/12/2018 at 1:57 PM, Newman said: My forecast at the moment would be: Philly on SE to the coast C-2" at most of snow, mostly sleet so probably less, and then over to a chilly rain. Philly on NW to the Lehigh Valley 2-4" of snow, to sleet and freezing rain, then ending as a chilly rain. Lehigh Valley on NW into NE PA 4-8" of snow, then to sleet and freezing rain. Depending on low-level cold, storm may remain frozen throughout. This all depends on initial onset of precip and how strong the low-level cold hangs on. I think sleet/freezing rain will be the predominant precip with the easterly winds off the coast in the mid-levels. In fact, my snow forecasts are probably too high but it's still 3-4 days away. The Ukie and Euro are much colder and snowier than the GFS and CMC. This forecast still stands. Cut back for those SE of Philly to C-1" at most of sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 my first and only call is C-1" Philly and immediate suburbs. N and W burbs 1-3" with lollis of 5" in elevated areas. Sleet will cut down on totals region wide and I expect even the Allentown area to see a significant period of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 14 hours ago, Birds~69 said: 6abc....Cecily really emphasized mainly sleet after the brief beginning snow period. This looks like a perfect call imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So if we see any accumulations do they get factored into seasonal totals or do these statistically fall into autumn category? Like someone else mentioned above, pad the stats for winter baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This looks like a perfect call imo Interesting that she's so low in the coal region and the southern Poconos. Up here, WNEP's morning guy (Joe Snedeker) has 7.3" for Allentown and double digits for just about everyone else. And they are USUALLY very conservative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: Interesting that she's so low in the coal region and the southern Poconos. Up here, WNEP's morning guy (Joe Snedeker) has 7.3" for Allentown and double digits for just about everyone else. And they are USUALLY very conservative... I think they are underplaying the mid level warmth. In storms like these with a strong southern fetch off the ocean, the mid levels warm much quicker than anticipated. Have seen it several times in the last few years and it was responsible for the mega bust 'blizzard' of 2017. Everyone will change to sleet imo and it will come much quicker than anticipated cutting down on projected totals. There is definitely a chance for some lollipops of 6-8" in the high elevation area's though. I think 3-6" in the pocono region is a fair estimate for now almost all on the front end. There is a chance though you guys get in on the deformation band. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I think they are underplaying the mid level warmth. In storms like these with a strong southern fetch off the ocean, the mid levels warm much quicker than anticipated. Have seen it several times in the last few years and it was responsible for the mega bust 'blizzard' of 2017. Everyone will change to sleet imo and it will come much quicker than anticipated cutting down on projected totals. There is definitely a chance for some lollipops of 6-8" in the high elevation area's though. I think 3-6" in the pocono region is a fair estimate for now almost all on the front end. There is a chance though you guys get in on the deformation band. Something to watch. I agree. Warm air will not be denied. I've seen it so many times. I sit at 825" and if the Lehigh Valley flips, we usually do too. I said over in our own forum that I just can't see more than 3-6 out of this even for my location. The deformation band is the caveat, but how many times does that actually work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: This looks like a perfect call imo I thought so also...people shouldn't expect much in mid Nov. Believe me my eyes will be glued to skies tomorrow morning for the first flakes. (A tradition) Basically I just want to see flakes for the first time this year . If we get more...great. If we get less...great. Just need to see to first flakes!!! Save the good stuff in a couple weeks or so....good luck N and W for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I thought so also...people shouldn't expect much in mid Nov. Believe me my eyes will be glued to skies tomorrow morning for the first flakes. (A tradition) Basically I just want to see flakes for the first time this year . If we get more...great. If we get less...great. Just need to see to first flakes!!! Save the good stuff in a couple weeks or so....good luck N and W for this event! This! For me Nov is the "pre-season" -- tomorrow is just an exhibition game. Doesn't matter if we win or lose, I just want to see how the free agent signings and new draft picks look. Anything frozen that falls on 11/15 is good! I'll take it as a sign mother nature maybe tipping her hand at what this winter has in store for us. I recall too many Novembers with temps in the 70's and no hint of winter in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 A less talked about thing with this storm is the rainfall, should see widespread totals of 1-2" again. Pretty surprised the big rivers in the area aren't running high or in action stage with all the widespread synoptic rainfall events the past 2 months. Thought we'd see at least minor flooding in some of the creeks and rivers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12z GFS is way warmer at the surface....most places outside of the pocono's don't even start as snow. Big rainmaker though, deform band rolls right over the area but temps are too warm aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z GFS is way warmer at the surface....most places outside of the pocono's don't even start as snow. Big rainmaker though, deform band rolls right over the area but temps are too warm aloft and at the surface. Meh, throw it out because I have no explanation. Wait for the Euro...if that sucks wait for the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Every model still has near 5"+ in upper Bucks including the usually too warm GFS, and even that one is giving Philly 2". Not bad for mid November if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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