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wncsnow

March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

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1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said:

NAM continues showing 1-1.75" of ice for Watuga/Ashe/Avery. If that verifies this will be a storm talked about for years to come.

Yes Sir, Absolutely Devastating!!! I never would have thought severe Ice this time of year, It's usually Rain or Snow! 

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Maybe it was posted but Winter Storm warning (was a watch) for Boone and surrounding areas

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Initial snow will
  begin early Saturday morning, transitioning over to sleet,
  freezing rain or cold rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up
  to 8 inches, and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch
  are expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson County. In North Carolina, Ashe,
  Alleghany NC and Watauga Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Saturday to noon EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah but then you see this and realize the models just dont know lol 

Can you link the source on this, I am having trouble finding it?  Thanks!

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HRDPS and HRRRX seem to be the more wintry mesoscale models for NC, HRDPS is a huge hit in NW NC mtns. NAM is warmer, none of the NAMS like the snow potential. This will be interesting.

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Both the RGEM and GGEM are nuisance type SN events for NW NC and SW VA but with major icing down the spine of the Apps in W NC.  I am kicking around the idea of heading to SW VA in the early AM for a quick overnight chase, Copper Hill - Wytheville area with some elevation but I have pause given the guidance.  8-12" would be a successful chase but I don't have a warm and fuzzy.  

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2 hours ago, WeatherNC said:

Both the RGEM and GGEM are nuisance type SN events for NW NC and SW VA but with major icing down the spine of the Apps in W NC.  I am kicking around the idea of heading to SW VA in the early AM for a quick overnight chase, Copper Hill - Wytheville area with some elevation but I have pause given the guidance.  8-12" would be a successful chase but I don't have a warm and fuzzy.  

Copper Hill will be a good spot. That mountain ridge and the 221 corridor from southern Roanoke County into Floyd County should do very well with this. I will be in that area tomorrow and Sunday.

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9 minutes ago, Disc said:

Copper Hill will be a good spot. That mountain ridge and the 221 corridor from southern Roanoke County into Floyd County should do very well with this. I will be in that area tomorrow and Sunday.

Disc, Do you work at RNK? I see you from Blacksburg!! 

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3 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

Experimental HRRR for 2am Sunday. Take it with a grain of salt but worth anazlying to see how well it does. 

50BD84E0-2CA5-4821-AFD5-77DC361D1E71.png

How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits.....

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This NAM run is warmer for southside and amounts are going to decrease

The NAM run is 7 degrees warmer for Danville compared to 18z once the precip starts.... woww... maybe a fluke? Maybe not.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Big decrease for most areas actually. More likely scenario and in line with other guidance

 

Cut totals in half lol

 

snku_acc.us_ma (8).png

I’m sorry but idk if it’s the Kuchera ratio thing or what but I do not buy places like Avery county getting only a dusting. Tropical tidbits maps for NAM seem more plausible and in line with the Euro. Also, ice threat is really increasing for eastern slopes and immediate foothills counties as this NAM run was a degree or two colder for these areas Sunday morning. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

3k NAM is a little colder than 12K

Not really. Only gets to 34 in Danville during heavy precip

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Can anyone explain to me why the NAM showed a 7 degree difference in temp with 0z compared to 18z for southern VA? 18z had Danville at 39 when precip started,  0z says 46??

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46 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits.....

NM I see how the HRRRX is 36 hrs on the 00Z run, but it shows only 18 on the previous ones....

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45 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

How do you get to the 36 hr HRRR map......I dont see anything past 18 hrs on Tropical Tidbits.....

HRRRX model at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z on there usually has it out to 36 hours. It’s experimental though so take it FWIW. 

 

For those wondering about the NAM temp difference, it’s due to a slower onset of clouds and precip allowing for more warming. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can anyone explain to me why the NAM showed a 7 degree difference in temp with 0z compared to 18z for southern VA? 18z had Danville at 39 when precip started,  0z says 46??

Im not sure man but I can tell you the temps are dropping like a rock outside with clear skies and calm winds right now. I see Danville on wunderground is at 37. I am at 36. We both know a lot of times these systems move in quicker than progged. Earlier the moisture gets in here imo the better.

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

Sitting at 40/22 in Frosty Land !! Yeah I’m with you buddy quicker the precip gets in here the better.


.

My thermometer is at 34...concerned about the IP/ZR...hope that we don't have a lot...generator still in storage down the mountain

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Was looking on the NCCO database to see the last major ZR event here in WNC...can't remember if it was 2006 or 2005...but I remember bringing my girls up that spring and parts of the parkway around Beacon Heights and Flat Rock looked like a bomb hit

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