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WxUSAF

March 20-21 Storm Banter and Party Thread

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You're good people, so please don't take this as me coming at you. 

I'm not sure how people are defining crush job. I was certainly excited with the earlier runs but I never expected anything more than 6 or 8 max. Despite what the models say, that's just not how climo seems to work here (aside from the northerner and westerners). We get too caught up in model runs IMO. A "consensus" can be wrong just as it can be right. 

It has been over two years. Two years since we've had a widespread warning event. We're on the cusp of one in the last third of March after a truly horrendous season. Instead of joy at this fact, there's a pall of hand wringing and panic over parts of the subforum. 

That's absurd. Full stop. It makes no sense whatsoever, especially when there are reports of thundersnow and sleet to our SW, a rapidly deepening low to our SE, and a funnel of cold air that's going to make it hard for us to ping all day tomorrow--March 21st. 

Tomorrow could absolutely underwhelm. I get upset with those who think crap raining from the sky is chocolate. But it's just wild to me how out of whack we can let us get ourselves and we generally know more about wx than the public. It's infuriating to me that the thing we seem to be best at is racing to the bottom. 

I'm going to enjoy whatever happens tomorrow unless I get dry slotted, :lol: and do some epic post afterward. What people say or do or feel here isn't going to take away my joy of seeing snow imby after months of chasing it all over the country. 

I really hope we produce. I really hope we enjoy. 

You actually just calmed me down significantly with this very level-headed post.  Isn't that the opposite of what you're trying to do, Grim Reaper?

Honestly, I enjoyed snow more before I found this forum, but I now GREATLY enjoy the chase more.  It's a fair trade off, but it's like heroin.  I'm always chasing that next high.  The 12z euro was the best damn smack I've had in over two years, but these other dealers like the NAM and the GFS are serving up some real bunk ish and I'm starting to tweak.  I'm tweaking. 

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

hi. i was supposed to fly to key west tomorrow from EWR but that airport isn't an option until at least friday. i'm on an amtrak train to bwi for an 8 am flight. i need your thoughts and prayers. thx

 

Godspeed, Forky.  I've done Amtrak in snowstorms from DC to NY and it was always OK.  have fun in my future retirement location.

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Color me skeptical but I’d be surprised the Euro being off by over .5” qpf 12 hours from go time.

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2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

Model and Obs threads are junked with clutter

wouldnt of been that way if the Models werent junked with clutter tonight

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Okay in all seriousness, not feeling too good about this one for here at least. I can see the favored areas from today adding another 4-5”, but those who didn’t get much accums, will probably end up with 3-4” storm total. Not bad for March, but would be a storm fail.

 

Before I get **** on, this is just my opinion.

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It’s kinda funny to me how many posters here are intent on ****ting on folks who are pointing out that this is trending pretty badly last minute. In fact it’s pretty hypocritical. Weren’t a lot of the same posters gassed up when certain “big” Mets came here and asked if we were “ready for a historic storm?”  

I don’t post a lot because I don’t know anything. I come here to learn, but the constant bickering about ‘bad’ posters, and endless replying to them without really commenting on what they said substantively is a bad look.

I’m not panicked, I’m not upset. Disappointed obviously 

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Even if the drool-worthy 8"-12" inch totals bust low...as long as they don't bust below 5 inches, I can deal with that. If we do get less than that, however...that would mean we still technically would not have had a Warning-level event verify in most of the forum since 2016. That, for me, would be double disappointment, smh Runs have me a little depressed, but...what can ya do? If the rest of the winter hadn't been plagued with so many near-misses, it wouldn't be so bad. But this would be far worse than those because we would have literally been within 12 hours of getting warning-level snow. That would suck...but again...what can ya do? Smh

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I guess I better go delete my Facebook post about a big storm coming. I waited until this evening to make so it would be safe. Oops.. Off to bed. Long day at work.

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Alright, I’m going to bed. Far too much panicking is cluttering things and honestly, the radar returns south of us that looked incredible have kind of tapered off some, so I’m not gonna stay up for a gentle snow. Hope I wake up tomorrow morning to some serious snows!

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5 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

You actually just calmed me down significantly with this very level-headed post.  Isn't that the opposite of what you're trying to do, Grim Reaper?

Honestly, I enjoyed snow more before I found this forum, but I now GREATLY enjoy the chase more.  It's a fair trade off, but it's like heroin.  I'm always chasing that next high.  The 12z euro was the best damn smack I've had in over two years, but these other dealers like the NAM and the GFS are serving up some real bunk ish and I'm starting to tweak.  I'm tweaking. 

Haha, sometimes the light breaks away from the darkness :P 

I enjoy snow just as I did before I found this place, but I place a lot more of a premium on production than I once did. I do less work with the models than I used to in winter and that's a shame. Honestly, a lot of the things I joke about are more a commentary on the absurdity of this place (during winter) than anything else. I love it but we're a very strange bunch. 

1 minute ago, NattyBo said:

It’s kinda funny to me how many posters here are intent on ****ting on folks who are pointing out that this is trending pretty badly last minute. In fact it’s pretty hypocritical. Weren’t a lot of the same posters gassed up when certain “big” Mets came here and asked if we were “ready for a historic storm?”  

 

I’m not panicked, I’m not upset. Disappointed obviously 

Except the difference is you're just looking at computer models that are swaying back and forth for an event that's already underway and those other posters were excited to hear trained professionals show excitement at the prospect of a historic event and explain why they saw the potential. 

I just don't see why anyone would be upset right now. 7am tomorrow? Maybe. Noon tomorrow if we're snizzle across the region? Sure. But right now? When the storm is taking shape? And we already know the inherent difficulties in forecasting exact SLP track, banding, and dry slots?

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha, sometimes the light breaks away from the darkness :P 

I enjoy snow just as I did before I found this place, but I place a lot more of a premium on production than I once did. I do less work with the models than I used to in winter and that's a shame. Honestly, a lot of the things I joke about are more a commentary on the absurdity of this place (during winter) than anything else. I love it but we're a very strange bunch. 

Except the difference is you're just looking at computer models that are swaying back and forth for an event that's already underway and those other posters were excited to hear trained professionals show excitement at the prospect of a historic event and explain why they saw the potential. 

I just don't see why anyone would be upset right now. 7am tomorrow? Maybe. Noon tomorrow if we're snizzle across the region? Sure. But right now? When the storm is taking shape? And we already know the inherent difficulties in forecasting exact SLP track, banding, and dry slots?

The point was that a lot of the same people that were excited when HM posted that are the same people who are jumping all over people with the “hah! What did you expect!? More than a few inches in March?” Acting like there was no legit reason to expect more than what is now being modeled.

There has always been a nasty groupthink/pile on facet that certain posters here seem to enjoy. That’s my 2 cents as someone who reads almost every day and posts far less. You can see from my reg date I have lurked for a while.

At least certain folks have tried to explain why they think the movement on the 0z suite is noise,  or pointing out other possible issues.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I will say it is a bit perplexing as to why LWX is upping their totals right now.  

Honestly when I saw the 12-18" area put up earlier today I was like, huh? I mean, thats basically going all in on historic. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha, sometimes the light breaks away from the darkness :P 

I enjoy snow just as I did before I found this place, but I place a lot more of a premium on production than I once did. I do less work with the models than I used to in winter and that's a shame. Honestly, a lot of the things I joke about are more a commentary on the absurdity of this place (during winter) than anything else. I love it but we're a very strange bunch. 

Except the difference is you're just looking at computer models that are swaying back and forth for an event that's already underway and those other posters were excited to hear trained professionals show excitement at the prospect of a historic event and explain why they saw the potential. 

I just don't see why anyone would be upset right now. 7am tomorrow? Maybe. Noon tomorrow if we're snizzle across the region? Sure. But right now? When the storm is taking shape? And we already know the inherent difficulties in forecasting exact SLP track, banding, and dry slots?

thank you for continuing, albeit without your knowledge, of the quest I embarked upon when I joined in 2005.  I got mocked for once saying all snow is good snow. obsessing about models while the storm is literally unfolding above is unreasonable.

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Good luck to all of you in the MA. The 00z models cut back for here also, but they may not be the final word. It seems the systems have all been complex this season, giving the models fits even close in. 

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25 minutes ago, T. August said:

Okay in all seriousness, not feeling too good about this one for here at least. I can see the favored areas from today adding another 4-5”, but those who didn’t get much accums, will probably end up with 3-4” storm total. Not bad for March, but would be a storm fail.

 

Before I get **** on, this is just my opinion.

It feels pretty clear now where this one is headed. If you cleaned up today, you might hit 8-10 storm total if everything breaks your way tomorrow.

If you have 1-3 inches now, expect to maybe get to 5 tomorrow.

If you have wet streets or some slush, maybe 1-3 tomorrow.

I have felt all day like tomorrow was being oversold. It will need to come down in buckets for a sustained period of time for the majority of the current forecasts to work out. LWX now has 10+ across a very large part of the CWA which is nuts outside of a thin strip near the PA border.

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Lots of opinions with little analysis to back them up is why I’m glad there is a banter forum. Many of you need to take a shot of something strong and hang them up for the night.

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Hey, if this is gonna bust, I'd much rather know now...If it is, I'll happily turn my attention to the weekend potential, lol Still holding out hope for this one, though...(although I may not sleep as easy!)

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey, if this is gonna bust, I'd much rather know now...If it is, I'll happily turn my attention to the weekend potential, lol Still holding out hope for this one, though...(although I may not sleep as easy!)

Go to bed.

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