March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It trimmed like an inch out by you.

An inch of snow or an inch of precip?  Yikes

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A big weenie salute to everyone still on line now 

Just finished 2 am shift. Went outside to put up wipers on our cars.

Wind is whipping. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

An inch of snow or an inch of precip?  Yikes

Snow...it was negligible....

[bobbutts]

Looks truly epic for the cape.  All snow, winds into the 60's, inches of qpf.

[TalcottWx]

2am OKX

WOW

 

[Greg]

Just now, bobbutts said:

Looks truly epic for the cape.  All snow, winds into the 60's, inches of qpf.

Not sure it will be all snow, most but not all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would honestly expect this.

 

[wxsniss]

It's not like Euro to go bonkers all the sudden, but this is a great step supporting the mesos with widespread 2"+ qpf in eastern SNE

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Pretty much add 0.2" qpf to 12z Euro run in eastern SNE... maybe barely a hair more compressed in west

Bumped me up, we bang 

[Amped]

00z EURO is almost identical to the HRDPS with precip amounts.

[The 4 Seasons]

James, you have a 1-3 range but nothing is shaded in 1-3, you start at 3-6 on your map.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is what i see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually like Kuchera here.

[HullMA]

Nam really pulled one off. I am impressed.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would honestly expect this.

 

Yea that's probably correct. It's cold up and down and snowing cold right now 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, wxsniss said:

It's not like Euro to go bonkers all the sudden, but this is a great step supporting the mesos with widespread 2"+ qpf in eastern SNE

Only one time i can remember it doing that, and that was Jan 23 2016. It was already snowing in NYC and the 00z run came in significantly N of the 12Z run, and this was literally at go-time.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

James, you have a 1-3 range but nothing is shaded in 1-3, you start at 3-6 on your map.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is what i see.

Meant to fil it in in NW VT, but I just didn't have the chance too I was rushing

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually like Kuchera here.

Agree, ratios should be > 10:1 as we get into heaviest meat of storm

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would honestly expect this.

 

Living on the edge....go big or go home I guess....I expect localized higher totals out this way....the western banding will perform 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Meant to fil it in in NW VT, but I just didn't have the chance too I was rushing

Your forecast for CT is on the higher end of most for sure, I wouldn't worry about busting low, but then again...

[Greg]

Generally about 20" - 30" Eastern Mass with about 15" - 20" outer Cape / Nantucket.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

goodnight everyone, I can't stay up any later, I need my sleep, I will be up in a few hours anyways, hopefully snowing by then TTYL

[Roger Smith]

Wham bam thank you NAM. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Montauk pt and BID must be doing like 2"/hr now.

[TalcottWx]

Light rain and very gusty here

[MarkO]

8 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not sure it will be all snow, most but not all.

No worries, it's below freezing about 1000' up. You can actually see the snow. It's coming!

[bobbutts]

22 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I figured if any storm to go big on it is this one

I'll consider the forecast a win if anyone gets 40"+

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

No worries, it's below freezing about 1000' up. You can actually see the snow. It's coming!

I'm actually talking about the Cape and Islands, not really us at all.  We will do well, I think.  Our ratios won't be huge but will make up some of the difference in the end.

[wxsniss]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A big weenie salute to everyone still on line now 

Yeah... let's relish this. The season's big one incoming. And trending better the closer we get. This is it, the thrill that keeps us coming back.

Wish there was more we could nowcast... timing delay? Surface low location? Diving northern stream? Prolonged duration? I haven't found an obvious parameter to correlate with impact on the various model runs tonight, probably because the stream interaction later this morning is so complex. But regardless, the unambiguous net result in the model output is getting better and better. 

Gonna force myself to recharge a few hours to enjoy the fireworks. Get some rest folks, gonna be a wild day tomorrow.

[Sugarloaf1989]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Montauk pt and BID must be doing like 2"/hr now.

 

Shelter Island ferry cam:

http://www.hamptons.com/South-Ferry-Cam#.Wqdt8b0pASw

[TalcottWx]

I really don't want to go to bed. But I have to work tomorrow night's shift.