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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

Do you remember what it did within 24 hours of the last event? Wouldn't give it too much weight. This is the model that had Feb '13 as a weak reflection scraping the Cape the day of the storm.

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I don't believe the GFS 18z run gets the full compliment of data,... and is in part initialized off the first 6 hourly solution of the 12z guidance to fill any holes in the initialization.

That was the case up through 5 years ago - Walter Drag told me that some four or five years ago.  Not sure if that's till the case.. 

IF so,  ...that makes it about as good as any other ensemble member; granted, that doesn't mean things can't exactly evolve, but the problem is, the 12z was really only step two along a trend - so it appears. That means that the holes were plugged by a solution in flux to begin with...

Somewhere in that complexity exists the notion not to trust this solution is really in keeping with said trend because it's based on a melange of estimates and computations combined.

If it gets the full compliment of original and unique sampling... I still wouldn't be certain that as the mechanics enters the NW Territory from out of the Alaska sector ...if it's just not temporarily lost a bit. 

I'm still putting money on the biggest threat being SE zones... but also would not be shocked if this till gets farther NW in the end.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't believe the GFS 18z run gets the full compliment of data,... and is in part initialized off the first 6 hourly solution of the 12z guidance to fill any holes in the initialization.

That was the case up through 5 years ago - Walter Drag told me that some four or five years ago.  Not sure if that's till the case.. 

IF so,  ...that makes it about as good as any other ensemble member; granted, that doesn't mean things can't exactly evolve, but the problem is, the 12z was really only step two along a trend - so it appears. That means that the holes were plugged by a solution in flux to begin with...

Somewhere in that complexity exists the notion not to trust this solution is really in keeping with said trend because it's based on a melange of estimates and computations combined.

If it gets the full compliment of original and unique sampling... I still wouldn't be certain that as the mechanics enters the NW Territory from out of the Alaska sector ...if it's just not temporarily lost a bit. 

I'm still putting money on the biggest threat being SE zones... but also would not be shocked if this till gets farther NW in the end.

It gets airplane data but no balloons.

Either way, it gets only satellite data over bumpfk canada.

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Guys ... I realize I'm trying to corral the public here and that's probably as much a fool's errand as the fools that ignore it ... but don't do that... Don't start tossing models just because they don't  fit into what one wants...

All the GFS did is return to the previous dynamic...  and it didn't even return the whole way - roughly half.  I'd say that's not bad solution for a run that may very well have been missing the same compliment of ingested data as the 12z version. 

Also, if you go back two days really... every cycle the GFS has carried this bomb... just not striking the region with it. That's a far cry better than just about every other tool in the game that went completely flat on a couple cycles...

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