UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: To answer some questions about my snow map, yes I understand that Southeast PA could receive more snow than I have depicted, the same can be said about Long Island. However I tried to take a blend of the guidance, which includes the possibility of the centers passing over SNJ and then Long Island. That's why I have less snow there. It's not a matter of temps as much as it is dry slot. If things change on later runs, I might have to shift things Southward a bit later. long range HRRR ( although awful) basically dry slots all of jersey, NYC and CT...would be big bust if that crappy model pulled one off lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: in SWFE this is always the case. Precip always starts earlier than modeled and 850s warm earlier. This isn't a SWFE. It's a Miller B transfer from a primary to a coastal low near the VA Capes. We want to pay attention to the 700 and 850 lows to see how far the dryslot and warm air make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: JM you dont think JFK will be that different from Islip? I feel that, like with the Millenium storm, that the further west you are the better, even if its right on the coast. Isip should do a lot worse than JFK because JFK is a lot farther west. If the GFS is more right, then yes Islip will get little. I'm banking on the low bending ENE more like the non-US models show. That would make the snow distribution more north to south than east-west up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: long range HRRR ( although awful) basically dry slots all of jersey, NYC and CT...would be big bust if that crappy model pulled one off lol Yeah I wouldn't give it much weight since it's way out of range. It will be useful tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: This isn't a SWFE. It's a Miller B transfer from a primary to a coastal low near the VA Capes. We want to pay attention to the 700 and 850 lows to see how far the dryslot and warm air make it. i know. I wasnt talking this storm. Sorry should have been more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z EPS mean looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah I wouldn't give it much weight since it's way out of range. It will be useful tomorrow morning. are u talking the 18-36hr version where a butterfly shifts the track 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z EPS mean looks great. albeit a noticeable shift W again, as expected following euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: albeit a noticeable shift W again, as expected following euro You can easily see how the low tracks over E LI which is why you have that dry slot, and then scoots Eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 members look fine, between 1-1.5 LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Pretty big Westward shift on the 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NWS is tossing the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Pretty big Westward shift on the 15z SREF plume avg for KEWR is 7.5 with a range from 2.5-17.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hopefully by 18z and 0z, we can have a clear understanding of how much the NYC metro and Central NJ will get in terms of snow. Right now, 3-6 is a call for NYC and North central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NWS is tossing the GFS Yes correct.... i was just about to post this LOL http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd&version=0&fmt=reg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yes correct.... i was just about to post this LOL http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd&version=0&fmt=reg Seems like they like the ukie best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 With NYC schools and its 1.1 million students can this close schools? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Seems like they like the ukie best gun to the head.. hug a model....im taking UKIE to the bank..... give me UKIE track HRDPS intesnity and banding and ill be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It’s just kinda weird that the GFS is west of other guidance. It’s bias is to be south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: With NYC schools and its 1.1 million students can this close schools? I think they have closed a few times now in recent years and didn't need to, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NWS Mount holly just cut back drastically on their snow map. South of Monmouth county is basically no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, snow1 said: NWS Mount holly just cut back drastically on their snow map. South of Monmouth county is basically no snow. can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I think they have closed a few times now in recent years and didn't need to, so who knows. I can only speak for since 2017, but each time they were legit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 not sure how to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Mt Holly has to be favoring the NAM and its variants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Huge bust potential near the fall line. Bit surprised by those further west tracks, the -AO/NAO should place this further east than suggested. It's not like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NWS Mount Holly Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: NWS Mount Holly Map: Hey, that doesn't look that far off from my map, albeit they do have higher totals further South in PA than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Metasequoia said: Thankfully running out of time for continued western shifts... What’s your reasoning for that? Still plenty of time for it to shift west. Just looking for solid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.