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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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tempestatis014

tempestatis014

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What do you guys think the start time on this thing is for eastern PA/northern NJ? I will be traveling from western VA to CT and am wondering if I should just drive straight through or be able to stop around 10pm and then get an early start?

In my mind, the quicker, the better. But if you need to stop and take a rest, do so. The precip probably will start around 10PM in So. NJ

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Cool.  I wish I had a guess.  My only thing is what I know is from experience.  On the coast and in NYC, if you can smell the rain, it's usually going to rain.  I know that is not scientific, and maybe that has changed recently, but I don't trust storms where I can see the rain/snow line approaching.  It rarely stops its advance.  Just my opinion.

Agreed, and it sometimes shocks people to the north when it makes it all the way there; rain can often overperform....

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 1989 storm was an incredible bust. Looking further back, the January 19-20, 1978 storm was a huge positive bust (forecast was heavy rain, but the outcome was heavy snow across much of the region, ending in some drizzle).

We had two big busts in 1989- in February and December.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

To answer some questions about my snow map, yes I understand that Southeast PA could receive more snow than I have depicted, the same can be said about Long Island. However I tried to take a blend of the guidance, which includes the possibility of the centers passing over SNJ and then Long Island. That's why I have less snow there. It's not a matter of temps as much as it is dry slot. If things change on later runs, I might have to shift things Southward a bit later.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

My first guess/call:

Central Park 7"

JFK: 4.5"

LGA: 6.5"

Bronx: 8"

EWR: 7"

HPN: 10.5"

BDR: 8"

MMU: 12.5"

Newburgh: 13"

Middletown: 13.5"

Danbury: 12"

ISP: 4"

Montauk: 0.5"

Huntington: 6"

FRG: 4.5"

Long Beach: 4"

 

The non-US models staying colder gives me some confidence the coastal areas will see at least a period of accumulating snow good for a few inches outside eastern Suffolk. I think it does eventually change over and dryslot for most, maybe not NW parts of the city. NW of I-95 is where you want to be, once into Westchester and western Bergen/Passaic Counties, amounts should increase pretty drastically and average a foot there. Depending on banding, someone should see 15". Overall, distribution should be pretty 3/14/17-like, though most of Long Island at least gets advisory level snow. 

I would shift the Euro west another 25 miles or so, which should be enough to get it to where my call is. I don't buy for a second the crazy hi-res CMC runs that have 12+ for Long Island, but maybe it's onto something with a colder idea due to the low moving ENE off S NJ. We'll see what happens. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

My first guess/call:

Central Park 7"

JFK: 4.5"

LGA: 6.5"

Bronx: 8"

EWR: 7"

HPN: 10.5"

BDR: 8"

MMU: 12.5"

Newburgh: 13"

Middletown: 13.5"

Danbury: 12"

ISP: 4"

Montauk: 0.5"

Huntington: 6"

FRG: 4.5"

Long Beach: 4"

 

The non-US models staying colder gives me some confidence the coastal areas will see at least a period of accumulating snow good for a few inches outside eastern Suffolk. I think it does eventually change over and dryslot for most, maybe not NW parts of the city. NW of I-95 is where you want to be, once into Westchester and western Bergen/Passaic Counties, amounts should increase pretty drastically and average a foot there. Depending on banding, someone should see 15". Overall, distribution should be pretty 3/14/17-like, though most of Long Island at least gets advisory level snow. 

I would shift the Euro west another 25 miles or so, which should be enough to get it to where my call is. I don't buy for a second the crazy hi-res CMC runs that have 12+ for Long Island, but maybe it's onto something with a colder idea due to the low moving ENE off S NJ. We'll see what happens. 

I think that is very reasonable and probably about what we'd expect given the time of year. And there are probably a lot of storms on record that look just like it. Assuming EWR and CPK see some sort of mixing, no?

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My first guess/call:

Central Park 7"

JFK: 4.5"

LGA: 6.5"

Bronx: 8"

EWR: 7"

HPN: 10.5"

BDR: 8"

MMU: 12.5"

Newburgh: 13"

Middletown: 13.5"

Danbury: 12"

ISP: 4"

Montauk: 0.5"

Huntington: 6"

FRG: 4.5"

Long Beach: 4"

 

The non-US models staying colder gives me some confidence the coastal areas will see at least a period of accumulating snow good for a few inches outside eastern Suffolk. I think it does eventually change over and dryslot for most, maybe not NW parts of the city. NW of I-95 is where you want to be, once into Westchester and western Bergen/Passaic Counties, amounts should increase pretty drastically and average a foot there. Depending on banding, someone should see 15". Overall, distribution should be pretty 3/14/17-like, though most of Long Island at least gets advisory level snow. 

I would shift the Euro west another 25 miles or so, which should be enough to get it to where my call is. I don't buy for a second the crazy hi-res CMC runs that have 12+ for Long Island, but maybe it's onto something with a colder idea due to the low moving ENE off S NJ. We'll see what happens. 

JM you dont think JFK will be that different from Islip? I feel that, like with the Millenium storm, that the further west you are the better, even if its right on the coast.  Islip should do a lot worse than JFK because JFK is a lot farther west.  JFK should do better than Farmingdale also, based on your other numbers, I'd put JFK in the 6-8 inch range.

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

To answer some questions about my snow map, yes I understand that Southeast PA could receive more snow than I have depicted, the same can be said about Long Island. However I tried to take a blend of the guidance, which includes the possibility of the centers passing over SNJ and then Long Island. That's why I have less snow there. It's not a matter of temps as much as it is dry slot. If things change on later runs, I might have to shift things Southward a bit later.

long range HRRR ( although awful) basically dry slots all of jersey, NYC and CT...would be big bust if that crappy model pulled one off lol

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

in SWFE this is always the case.  Precip always starts earlier than modeled and 850s warm earlier.

This isn't a SWFE. It's a Miller B transfer from a primary to a coastal low near the VA Capes. We want to pay attention to the 700 and 850 lows to see how far the dryslot and warm air make it. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
Just now, Paragon said:

JM you dont think JFK will be that different from Islip? I feel that, like with the Millenium storm, that the further west you are the better, even if its right on the coast.  Isip should do a lot worse than JFK because JFK is a lot farther west.

If the GFS is more right, then yes Islip will get little. I'm banking on the low bending ENE more like the non-US models show. That would make the snow distribution more north to south than east-west up here. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

long range HRRR ( although awful) basically dry slots all of jersey, NYC and CT...would be big bust if that crappy model pulled one off lol

Yeah I wouldn't give it much weight since it's way out of range. It will be useful tomorrow morning.

 

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friedmators

friedmators

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't a SWFE. It's a Miller B transfer from a primary to a coastal low near the VA Capes. We want to pay attention to the 700 and 850 lows to see how far the dryslot and warm air make it. 

i know.  I wasnt talking this storm.  Sorry should have been more clear.

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