rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 interesting stuff on the Nam. Showing a strong response from Georgian Bay from primary. Rocs only game is to get a similar response. We’d want the primary further SE. meso stuff to keep an eye on. Still expecting Butkus from Buf-Syr. Bing is a roll of the dice. I think mostly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 H850 LP sits in the GOM for 2 days throwing back tons of moisture. Too bad this didn't happen in mid-feb, what a shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 They went to 4", its a start, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: They went to 4", its a start, lol! You gotta quit this storm. I don’t understand you. You hated on the last one up until it buried you and yet you hug this one for zero reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Always got the Canadian that misses us to the east but hammers us with lake effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: They went to 4", its a start, lol! GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GEFS Would be meltdowns in New England forum if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 hours ago, rochesterdave said: It’d be nice to keep it interesting. Well East of 81 as I see it. Just not enough time. Not enough dig. Not enough negative. Forms to far N. It has a kicker (slow pusher). Just not enough anything. Hope I’m wrong. NAM has been crushing it this year. I’m probably being dumb to discount it. And we have about 2 more model cycles where EC storms trend west (before correcting East in last couple). So 18z- tomorrow’s 6z Nam could be entertaining, if not misleading. The Euro model doesn't seem to have been all that good this year. Just a couple of days ago it was hinting at almost 17" of snow for my area between the 3rd and 13th...doesn't look like we'll see much of anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wish this were the EPS Mean, but here is the tastiest member of the several that are well west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Good luck in Binghamton area. My daughter attends the university there and they’ve already cancelled classes on Thursday (coming off winter break this week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 You gotta quit this storm. I don’t understand you. You hated on the last one up until it buried you and yet you hug this one for zero reason. Mind your own posts and don't concern yourself with mine, thanks, as your posts I don't even read, so dont read mine if they bother you sooooo much, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Kbuf On Thursday...the heart of our forecast area will become the pivot point for a classic Fujiwara-type interaction between the two storm systems within the larger longwave gyre. The initial closed low will dive southeast toward the Mid Atlantic region while the more dynamic secondary storm system will rotate north to the coast of Maine. Again...this will keep the bulk of the organized lift on the corners of our forecast area where snow showers will be more concentrated. In the case of the North Country...the snow will become especially widespread and steady as a result of the deeper synoptic moisture being wrapped around the northwest periphery of the Nor`easter. Have thus raised pops to categorical for this area. Snowfall accumulations will range from one to two inches...with the higher amounts generally across the higher terrain (abv 1500 ft). As is usually the case with binary interaction...the two cores will eventually merge into one consolidated mid level storm system. This will be the case Thursday and night and Friday when the complex storm system will (de)evolve into one stacked low over New England. In the process...the nor`easter will become captured by its overlying mid level support and be drawn inland across Maine. Meanwhile deep Atlantic moisture will be circulated back to the west across all of our forecast area where snow will become steadier and more widespread. Have raised pops by some 10 to 15 points regionwide with cat pops found east of the Finger Lakes. Would not be surprised if all of the region were raised to categorical pops within the next package or two. The deepening moisture will translate into a fairly deep dendritic growth zone as well...with depths likely exceeding 5k ft. This will provide the bulk of the region with an environment very conducive for efficient snow making...so would not rule out the potential for several inches of snow during this 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 06Z NAM and GFS pushing snow all the back into CNY. GFS particularly bullish over next 3-4 days. This continues to evolve on models. Hard to believe a tucked in sub 990 mb slp near NYC doesn't throw back at least advisory snows here. The interaction with the primary is going to be interesting to watch. Then there's extended wraparound into Thurs/Fri. I think KSYR can see 6-9" out of this, net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Too bad this is 06Z but still interesting. 06Z Clown thru 120h: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Too bad this is 06Z but still interesting. 06Z Clown thru 120h:There'll be snow in the air from tomorrow right through Saturday for Central and Eastern New York!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: There'll be snow in the air from tomorrow right through Saturday for Central and Eastern New York! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yeah there will be. Really interested to see if 12z runs remain bullish for CNY. Weeniecide hotlines will be busy along the coast if that happens (i think i95 NJ-PVD- BOS slots and/or rains regardless). I don't put a whole lot of faith in the off hour runs but they can sometimes be useful from a trending standpoint. Regardless, KALB appears to be the best positioned synoptically no matter what evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Taken from the NE board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Taken from the NE board. 12Z NAM dryslots the bejesus out of SNE and rotates precip back over CNY to as far west as ROC and BUF with what appears to be lake enhancement as system stalls and then fills invof Montreal... 3km NAM has 8" for KSYR thru end if it's run at 60 hrs. 32km NAM continues with wraparound thru HR 84. Not horrible for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12Z GFS pretty much holds serve with NAM...snow clown thru 18z friday. The Cuse is looking more solid for a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I love reading the NE board when things trend west, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Through Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I love reading the NE board when things trend west, lol! Very interested in 12z Euro. Although in reality, tonight's 00z will be more of the tell as to wether the more tucked in scenarios are valid or noise. Regardless, looks like some decent wraparound that is lake enhanced. I'm not sure that 12z verbatim would warrant expanding the watch west...if 00z is similar then maybe. I see advisory for us due to more prolonged nature of the event as best hit still looks to be E and SE of us. How the fujiwara-like interaction at 500mb plays out is going to be a key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Getting interesting. I might have to eat my hat on this one. At least Concerning Syracuse. Enhancement looking more and more possible. It is fun to watch the SNE boards freak out. I know how they feel. Good luck CNY peeps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro further west at 24. 999 over the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 30 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Euro further west at 24. 999 over the Delmarva. 30 minutes later... what’s the verdict? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 30 minutes later... what’s the verdict? Euro at 72h looks goofy. Thru 48 its a touch west of 0Z as far as i can tell. Its reasonably in line with 0Z and the 12z US model ideas. Appears to keep slp track a touch SE of GFS/NAM which doesn't really impact us, more of an issue for SNE. So you can guess which models were tossed by the intelligensia elsewhere. Not sure on its qpf distribution. 00Z gonna be pretty interesting. Also...next weeks storm pretty much suppressed and almost vaporized by EC and GFS...So hasta la vista to that one. EC shoves plenty of cold air south tho...maybe late season LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z definitely more snow for our area. Gives much of CNY between .8 and 1.2 LE from tomorrow through Saturday. Hopefully keeps ticking further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I love reading the NE board when things trend west, lol!So do I, and I think there are ppl on the Verrazano bridge waitin to jump when they see this system tomorrow come right over the top of AC . They still have the Euro to coddle, well at least KBOS does, but the GFS kicked the living daylights out of the EURO with the last event especially in and around NYC where it had almost 14" and they got the big ol' goosegg, lol as did the rest of the boroughs. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The first little impulse comes through tonight through the early mornin hrs tomorrow then a break and it's during this time we see the precip shield start to pivot West so we'll see how far West it gets. Hoping the GFS scores another coup, but who really knows at this pt.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The first little impulse comes through tonight through the early mornin hrs tomorrow then a break and it's during this time we see the precip shield start to pivot West so we'll see how far West it gets. Hoping the GFS scores another coup, but who really knows at this pt. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk At least we’re still in the ballgame after being out of it a couple of days ago. Hopefully we can score several inches from the front end before getting into the wrap around/lake effect Thursday to Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now