CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If this is anywhere close to being correct then this system gets going over Central NC and not the Outer Banks and if one extrapolates NEastward, that would virtually send it over NYC and NE from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, CNY_WX said: At least we’re still in the ballgame after being out of it a couple of days ago. Hopefully we can score several inches from the front end before getting into the wrap around/lake effect Thursday to Saturday. That's the missing link as the wrap around looks like a lock on all guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The first little impulse comes through tonight through the early mornin hrs tomorrow then a break and it's during this time we see the precip shield start to pivot West so we'll see how far West it gets. Hoping the GFS scores another coup, but who really knows at this pt. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Agree on precip shield. Some storms have really sharp cutoffs due to their structure but this doesn't appear to be one of them. So, some uncertainty how far NW the precip shield gets thrown. Models frequently underdo this. Unless there are big changes at 00Z (or real time), I suspect we will have SN- from the true synoptic part in conjunction with interaction with the primary low...with heavier bands making it as far west as UCA-BGM. How KBGM deals with the long duration of SN- will be interesting. I don't think we will see Warning criteria here (7"+ in ~12 hrs?) but several 6 hr periods of 1/2"/hr snowfall seems pretty likely thru Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Catskills are going to get absolutely crushed, snowmageddon all over again. but centered further North this time around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Agree on precip shield. Some storms have really sharp cutoffs due to their structure but this doesn't appear to be one of them. So, some uncertainty how far NW the precip shield gets thrown. Models frequently underdo this. Unless there are big changes at 00Z (or real time), I suspect we will have SN- from the true synoptic part in conjunction with interaction with the primary low...with heavier bands making it as far west as UCA-BGM. How KBGM deals with the long duration of SN- will be interesting. I don't think we will see Warning criteria here (7"+ in ~12 hrs?) but several 6 hr periods of 1/2"/hr snowfall seems pretty likely thru Sat. I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NYZ006>008-070300- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.180307T1800Z-180310T0000Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 228 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...A prolonged period of accumulating snow is possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible, with the greatest amounts most likely across the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become hazardous to difficult. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I agree! Certain other forums may disagree, and I get that last minute east jigs in slp tracks frequently occur on NWP, but given the blocking and H500 fujiwara projected to occur, I think the bigger risk is a further NW track as this thing slipping out underneath seems unlikely given the projected capture dynamics in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 BGM went up to a WS warning for us in Otsego County and one tier of counties to our west. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wait, lol, KBGM upgrades everyone to WSW but doesn't post watches one county further West? I guess the wall of snow will just stop at the Onondaga Madison county border, lol! Simply hoping for a bust watches should of at least been hoisted but what do I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18Z NAM no major changes from 12Z. If anything it closes off a touch earlier...SLP and thermal profile almost on top of the 12Z. Gotta say, there are people seeing things on the 18z NAM that just don't exist. Also a lot of chatter that NAM will "cave" to Euro's slightly SE track and colder thermal profile eventually (now by 00Z or 06Z or maybe by this weekend). What would concern me about that idea is one look at the Euro at H72. Completely on its own with a 993 mb low well out at sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18Z NAM is even a touch further west than 12Z. Has a 989 low just about over Surf City, NJ at 21 Z tomorrow. Syracuse at least briefly gets into the heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Nam is even further on the Coast. This illustrates it quite nicely! 12Z 18Z I'm not really sure how much would change wrt the precip shield and the mid levels as no new data was really ingested into the 18Z except surface obs and satellite data, as no balloons are sent up on off runs, so we may in fact see a shift come 00Z as from my eyes this is still trending West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 18Z NAM is even a touch further west than 12Z. Has a 989 low just about over Surf City, NJ at 21 Z tomorrow. Syracuse at least briefly gets into the heavier snow. That's funny as you posted the same thing as I did, almost at the same time, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 18Z NAM is even a touch further west than 12Z. Has a 989 low just about over Surf City, NJ at 21 Z tomorrow. Syracuse at least briefly gets into the heavier snow. That's an incorrect read. It's caving to Euro, big move east. A little birdie told me that. For fun, look the 3km NAM. This is exactly what I've been suspecting would happen w/ precip shield being thrown more NW even with slp in relatively similar position to last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'm gonna head over to the NE thread and laugh a bit, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Pretty nice look at. The last 6 runs of the NAM. Shows the trend quite nicely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 At least C-PA is getting in on the action as they usually don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: At least C-PA is getting in on the action as they usually don't. E-PA also, they seem to somehow miss or underperform a lot for some reason. Maybe bad luck. 00Z gonna be Yuge run as new data fully ingested in models. After that its near Nowcasting time...The trend has been West since 06Z today. We'll see if its been a head fake, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 KBGM thinks the EURO is Trending West, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 KSYR may in fact hit above normal snowfall the next several days it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KBGM thinks the EURO is Trending West, lol?? It ticked west a bit at 12z but whether its a bona fide trend hard to say with one data point...but it matches all other NWP moves so its part of an overall trend... KBGM seems to be downplaying the wraparound but they are probably focusing on the main heaviest impact part of the storm for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KSYR may in fact hit above normal snowfall the next several days it looks like. KSYR Pretty much spot on average seasonal snowfall now so everything from here goes into the plus column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Channel 9’s latest forecast has the Syracuse area in 1-2 tonight then 2-5 inches through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Not a bad start I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wayne Mahar on channel 3 just called for 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Wayne Mahar on channel 3 just called for 2-4. That seems low but if his period is Wednesday only...then maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just like you said tonight's runs are super huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Would not want to be a person who forecasts for the public right now, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Winter like 10 days on the euro..It’s actually not much different here as models been showing wrap around for the last several days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Would not want to be a person who forecasts for the public right now, lol! Imagine down near NYC or SNE...based on snippets of radio talk...everyone thinks they're getting a foot or more. Could also be 4" than slop and dryslot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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