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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

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3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Down to 34 here in Rutherford County. This area is in a prime spot for CAD wreckage.

Left Shelby at 7:15 and it was 42. 26 miles west it is 34 degrees :)


.

KEHO is down to 37/4

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5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Down to 34 here in Rutherford County. This area is in a prime spot for CAD wreckage.

Left Shelby at 7:15 and it was 42. 26 miles west it is 34 degrees :)


.

Would not take much for our area to be in warning criteria for ICE.

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18 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Hrrr has been spot on for here this winter so im believing it. To be fair it showed me at 34 the lowest temp..think i misread it earlier.  Dropped to 35 briefly now back to 36/15.

If its right Mack may see some pingers and a sliver up through NC..thats about it

Maybe just my pessimism but I'm calling no go for MBY in Easley. Have made it down to 32 but hasn't budged in awhile and no stars above. Temp will only go up as clouds thicken.

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Sounds like everyone is cooling off as expected and everything appears to be on track for a wintry mess in the CAD regions.

Having a tough time dropping the temp here with a southerly wind and cloud cover. Been at 36 degrees for a few hours. However, the dew point depression is still large enough for quite a bit of evaporational cooling to take place once the precip moves in.

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Maybe just my pessimism but I'm calling no go for MBY in Easley. Have made it down to 32 but hasn't budged in awhile and no stars above. Temp will only go up as clouds thicken.

I will say looking at your current conditions, your DP is 19. May allow you to drop a couple more degrees yet.

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Down to 34 here in Rutherford County. This area is in a prime spot for CAD wreckage.
 
Left Shelby at 7:15 and it was 42. 26 miles west it is 34 degrees
 
 
.
 

Not sure where you got the 42 in Shelby. I’ve got 33 here in Shelby right now


.
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20 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Last 5 min, radar has really responded over Western TN. Got a feeling qpf is going to overperform on this one.

There’s plenty of precip with this storm.  Precip overperforming will actually hurt us (if you want ice). 

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41 minutes ago, David Johnson said:


Not sure where you got the 42 in Shelby. I’ve got 33 here in Shelby right now


.

Yea man I'm with you.. I live in the upper end and in already 32

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1 hour ago, Duncana12 said:

Would not take much for our area to be in warning criteria for ICE.

GSP says no, that won't be necessary! They've got it under control and won't need and ice storm warning or WSW. Their forecast is right on! What their update said

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

namconus_asnow_us_8.thumb.png.26ed04e1fb77467cb788a53ad6e42432.png

12k nam upped snow map quite a bit as well for both of us. We are in the 5'' shading.

The majority of that is ice, just as an FYI. Raging sleet storm with some ZR to finish.

AKA concrete

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Ummmmm.... I highly recommend you upstate people go to FB and find the WYFF - Chris Justice update from about an hour ago!!! That future cast radar looks like it could get RGEM totals!! There is some mod/heavy rain falling and it's frozen according to radar!! I know, self limiting, latent heat release, blah blah, but moderate Precip, could aid in a lot better wet-bulbing conditions! You get that precip at 29/30 degrees, which is not at all impossible, and your gonna have big problems!! Ask Lookout about temps being forecasted about 3-5 degrees too high! And tree loss! ( yes that was a different set up) but just making a point

Yeah the average error rate is generally in that neighborhood in cad situations if the setup is right. I haven't had much time to look at things but based on the nam having the cold pool up to and above 950mb north of 85...along with NE to ene flow through that level..it's a bit worrisome. It means we likely will see good temp response via evap cooling..and the cold pool won't be scoured out or warmed up through WAA alone.  Negative factor is the precip rates...looks  heavy enough that drag could help temps rise...plus it's hard to accumulative fast raining that hard. 

That said, its pretty much a lock the models are at least a few degrees too warm after saturation...especially given the depth being up to 950mb.. . Will be interesting to see if the high precip rates will keep ice totals in check. 

Had to be up here in gainesville...currently overcast and 35 over 14 with a 10mph or so ne wind.  Expecting to get to 29 here. 

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16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GSP says no, that won't be necessary! They've got it under control and won't need and ice storm warning or WSW. Their forecast is right on! What their update said

For sure but got to watch especially for me and the hickory area its very close..

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1 minute ago, Disc said:

The majority of that is ice, just as an FYI. Raging sleet storm with some ZR to finish.

AKA concrete

My snow meter is set for 1'' anything else is bonus. I am at least expecting that we have good "sleet rates" lol.

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The 3K Nam is ominous looking once again for S VA. Still holding around 32 at hr 18 for ROA. Frosty, 3k looks like several hours of moderate to heavy zr for you as well.

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current Intellicast radar - returns in east TN?
5a7671062d891_Screenshot-2018-2-3Intellicast-WeatherActiveMap.thumb.jpg.8499e3cf3d89839b21f54a4d062ce838.jpg
Intellicast radar is known to be... Bullish in its depiction of precip.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

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