Isotherm Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 23 hours ago, frd said: Isotherm your NAO call for this winter, o far has been great. Without stating more than is needed is the cause for the NAO change coming up more so ocean driven or solar, or other factors. Thanks as always. By the way while you are here do you think the Atlantic wave activity I hear about coupled with the Pac will produce anything meaningful for March as there is a lag. Jason Furtado was talking about it recently. Not common for the Atlantic wave pulses to be involved but it is forecasted to. 22 hours ago, pasnownut said: Boy I sure hope that last sentence is correct ISO. Great seeing you in here btw. Thanks guys. Frd, I do see some enhanced wave-2 activity over the next couple of weeks as wave-1 fades, but I think much of this is MJO contingent, and as such, believe the GFS based guidance is too aggressive on the w-2 associated split activity for mid month. There will be a fairly potent strengthening of the SPV in the coming 10-12 days which should downwell into the NAO/AO domains in the form of a strongly positive NAO and neutral/slightly positive AO. Where we progress from there is a bit indeterminate, but right now, I do not see any indication of a minor or major SSW event through February 15th-18th. Truthfully, we will soon be reaching the period at which stratospheric warming activity is much less correlated to deep NAM reversals, if we do not see one within the next few weeks or so. Will monitor wave-2 over the next couple weeks. But notice the ECMWF MJO has been correcting toward a phase 7/8 brick wall w/ transition incoherent/de-amplified , with numerous members into the COD or even remaining near phase 7. The convection will surely dissipate, but I had previously thought that the u-div signal could persist into 8-1. However, if we attempt to re-circulate/remain stagnant near p7, the February pattern could materially shift from prior expectations. Notice on recent EPS runs, the cold is really locked up in Canada w/ a contemporaneous adjustment westward of the meridional ridge near the West Coast. The more positive that the AO corrects as a function of the SPV status, and as the ridge axis responds to the tropical forcing remaining further west, that will tend to warm the East Coast. Much to watch over the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Isotherm said: Thanks guys. Frd, I do see some enhanced wave-2 activity over the next couple of weeks as wave-1 fades, but I think much of this is MJO contingent, and as such, believe the GFS based guidance is too aggressive on the w-2 associated split activity for mid month. There will be a fairly potent strengthening of the SPV in the coming 10-12 days which should downwell into the NAO/AO domains in the form of a strongly positive NAO and neutral/slightly positive AO. Where we progress from there is a bit indeterminate, but right now, I do not see any indication of a minor or major SSW event through February 15th-18th. Truthfully, we will soon be reaching the period at which stratospheric warming activity is much less correlated to deep NAM reversals, if we do not see one within the next few weeks or so. Will monitor wave-2 over the next couple weeks. But notice the ECMWF MJO has been correcting toward a phase 7/8 brick wall w/ transition incoherent/de-amplified , with numerous members into the COD or even remaining near phase 7. The convection will surely dissipate, but I had previously though that the u-div signal could persist into 8-1. However, if we attempt to re-circulation/remain stagnant near p7, the February pattern could materially shift from prior expectations. Notice on recent EPS runs, the cold is really locked up in Canada w/ a contemporaneous adjustment westward of the meridional ridge near the West Coast. The more positive the AO corrects, and as the ridge axis responds to the tropical forcing remaining further west, that will tend to warm the East Coast. Much to watch over the next couple weeks. Thanks for the update.....but ughh.....can i unread some of that? Hey, it is what it is, and to your point, once we get into early Feb, SSW and the benefits thereof, only delay true spring, as the lag puts us into March anyway. I'll take my next few weeks, and see where we go from there. Keep us update. Great stuff...even if I dont like what I hear. Have a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a stronger vort coming across the south central US this run at 120 this should be a better run than 6z. The Friday deal is just hot garbage. I think its time to focus on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a stronger vort coming across the south central US this run at 120 Doesn't sync up well. Long duration light event this run. Which is totally fine. It's a bit of a messy setup with the streams. Hopefully not the kind where we get caught in nomans land. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't sync up well. Long duration light event this run. Which is totally fine. It's a bit of a messy setup with the streams. Hopefully not the kind where we get caught in nomans land. lol this rain to start off with is new...losing alot of qpf to raun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't sync up well. Long duration light event this run. Which is totally fine. It's a bit of a messy setup with the streams. Hopefully not the kind where we get caught in nomans land. lol Well at least the SL still passes to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 the CMC is a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: this rain to start off with is new...losing alot of qpf to raun Yea, there's definitely the risk of that with no hp pressing. The whole thing is sliding along in unison. Temps are like 35 though with good mids. It's borderline but not the kind that plays with fire...yet... If the system was more developed it would have been all snow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 the GGEM looks terrible. Our sunday storm is already doing the falling apart thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: the GGEM looks terrible. Our sunday storm is already doing the falling apart thing. I told you yesterday that this is going to get on our nerves. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I told you yesterday that this is going to get on our nerves. lol just wanted one event to be easy and improve. The mid range always shows up the upside stuff and then by the time its kickoff, its a Trace event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the GGEM looks terrible. Our sunday storm is already doing the falling apart thing. When the ggem looks good you say it doesn't matter because it sucks. Then when it's bad you get upset. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 With heavier precip rates on Sunday and it should be all snow. Pretty good track just came in a little weaker. Glad to see the storm is still there and tracks under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 so it looks like we are going to be 0-3 Today,Friday and Sunday. Add that to the 0-3 in January and the 1-3 for december....we are like 1-9. Maybe we will get the first pick the draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: just wanted one event to be easy and improve. The mid range always shows up the upside stuff and then by the time its kickoff, its a Trace event lol We'll never get that without a block. At least rarely anyways. This event requires 2 streams to work together and time perfectly for a big event. I knew the GFS/GGEM runs were top end yesterday. It could still happen that way but not without a lot of stress in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: We'll never get that without a block. At least rarely anyways. This event requires 2 streams to work together and time perfectly for a big event. I knew the GFS/GGEM runs were top end yesterday. It could still happen that way but not without a lot of stress in between. id be happy with a 3-5. Dont need a big event. I need an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I honestly don't want to be in the bullseye until under 72 hrs this winter. I won't trust anything outside of 72hrs and even then there is still ample time to change as long as the pieces are still available. As long as the streams are close to sinking, I'm still interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: id be happy with a 3-5. Dont need a big event. I need an event Don't write anything off at 120hrs+. There is zero chance that progressive flow locks into anything at d4-5-6 leads. Never has never will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: I honestly don't want to be in the bullseye until under 72 hrs this winter. I won't trust anything outside of 72hrs and even then there is still ample time to change as long as the pieces are still available. we havent had anything to track under 72 hours yet. Once we have hit 72, every threat has been pretty much a done deal of Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: just wanted one event to be easy and improve. The mid range always shows up the upside stuff and then by the time its kickoff, its a Trace event lol In the type of pattern we are in when we finally get something it's not going to show itself at range. It will pop up around 72 hours out. That's how most of the storms in 2014 and 2015 were. It's also how the couple of close calls last year were. Think back to every progressive fast flow NS pattern and none of the snows were long lead tracking things. Even the ones we end up close misses didn't even show up at range. So the things that look great at day 7 are likely to become something else. What we need is something that looks blah at dat 7 to morph in our favor. That doesn't mean something can't look good then look bad and come back. But models can't possibly resolve all the timing issues and how the vorts play off each other worth accuracy and consistency at range. This year long range is for tracking general patterns only. Specific threats inside 72 hours. 96 at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: we havent had anything to track under 72 hours yet. Once we have hit 72, every threat has been pretty much a done deal of Trace The Dec event didn't even appear until 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll never get that without a block. At least rarely anyways. This event requires 2 streams to work together and time perfectly for a big event. I knew the GFS/GGEM runs were top end yesterday. It could still happen that way but not without a lot of stress in between. If the Friday event develops a strong enough surface wave on the front north of SNE t could bomb out enough off Canada to slow the pattern down but given the models have no clue yet on that event it’s impossible to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The Dec event didn't even appear until 72 hours. that was the exception lol. That was an out to sea thing till it wasnt. Then it ramped up good. Then the final model run before the storm stated,, the nam cut the qpf in half. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: we havent had anything to track under 72 hours yet. Once we have hit 72, every threat has been pretty much a done deal of Trace Which is why personally, I will not call anything outside of 72 hrs an "event" this winter. I don't believe much in the long range. I don't buy ensemble runs with 1' snow totals. Imho opinion, it's pointless to pay much attention to ensemble snow totals, precip, etc. Ensembles can be helpful for pattern changes but even then you have to take them with a grain of salt. Winter weather in the MA is all about setting expectations low. If you do this then you'll get what you expect 8 out of 10 winters and get blown away every four years or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: that was the exception lol. That was an out to sea thing till it wasnt. Then it ramped up good. Then the final model run before the storm stated,, the nam cut the qpf in half. lol If you think the sun-mon deal is dead the let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: the GGEM looks terrible. Our sunday storm is already doing the falling apart thing. What' wrong with the ggem ..lol Sunday has a juiced up storm miss us just to the south and then we get a flush hit on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: If you think the sun-mon deal is dead the let it go. its not dead. I actually think we are "close" enough to the event that we will see some snow. 120 hours out seems to be the closet we have gotten since the Dec 8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: What' wrong with the ggem ..lol Sunday has a juiced up storm miss us just to the south and then we get a flush hit on Wednesday. Yeah it looks better than the GFS. The ICON shows what I explained last night. It’s strongest with Friday and has nothing Sunday or Monday. Friday is a classic baroclinic pusher. If it happens and happens like the ICON has or stronger Sunday into Monday probably is out. Right now I’m up for tossing Friday and hoping the next one happens since it has more potential to be big from the MA all the way to New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah it looks better than the GFS. The ICON shows what I explained last night. It’s strongest with Friday and has nothing Sunday or Monday. Friday is a classic baroclinic pusher. If it happens and happens like the ICON has or stronger Sunday into Monday probably is out. Right now I’m up for tossing Friday and hoping the next one happens since it has more potential to be big from the MA all the way to New England I've already moved on from friday...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 The UKMET appears slightly more potent Friday but it’s hard to tell with the prelim 12 hour maps. It seems there may be more southern energy with it which could trigger a surface low later on the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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