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Kasper

January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

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24 minutes ago, bearman said:

The Germans overthink everything.  Have you had a VW lately they fall apart because they have sensors that try to monitor everything.  My daughters VW fell apart within a year of purchase.

I feel your pain I made the mistake of buying a BMW once! 

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2 hours ago, Bango said:

 TRI’s numbers seem to have stayed consistent in the 18z runs, which kind of surprised me given the overall increases...are we getting downsloped a little?

Downsloping shouldn’t be an issue with this system.

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3 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

Downsloping shouldn’t be an issue with this system.

Mathmet, thank you for your input.  For you  new folks, this is a meteorologist who is pretty much an expert on mountain wave events among other things.  He knows how winds operate in the mountains.  I keep saying this...we have great mets in this forum.  

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Downsloping shouldn’t be an issue with this system.

Glad you’re on here. This might sound strange but going up the Camp Creek during a Mountain wave event is on my Weather bucket list.


.

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38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Glad you’re on here. This might sound strange but going up the Camp Creek during a Mountain wave event is on my Weather bucket list.


.

I spent the night in a house near camp creek when I was younger, having never heard of mountain wave winds...I stuck my head out the window at least 4 times expecting a giant storm, as each gust sounded like the top was coming off the roof...pretty wild

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This looks like it’s becoming a significant event. I’ve been watching the models for a couple of days. Each run ups the precipitation. I think this will catch a lot of people by surprise because they are expecting wet snow where the roads are fine. 

C69B5AC4-3D20-4A0B-9D1F-97607C2F3DD7.png

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Mathmet, thank you for your input.  For you  new folks, this is a meteorologist who is pretty much an expert on mountain wave events among other things.  He knows how winds operate in the mountains.  I keep saying this...we have great mets in this forum.  

Thanks for the compliment. I've been less active on weather forums in recent years, but I still enjoy reading the discussions on this forum.  There's a lot of great information here.

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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:


Glad you’re on here. This might sound strange but going up the Camp Creek during a Mountain wave event is on my Weather bucket list.


.

If you get the chance to experience one of the major events, then I think it would worth the trip.

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14 minutes ago, Touchet said:

This looks like it’s becoming a significant event. I’ve been watching the models for a couple of days. Each run ups the precipitation. I think this will catch a lot of people by surprise because they are expecting wet snow where the roads are fine. 

C69B5AC4-3D20-4A0B-9D1F-97607C2F3DD7.png

I agree, the widespread nature and cold conditions will cripple travel in the south, even with small amounts (if verified).  It should have the net effect of a winter storm warning type of event, minus the duration etc

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I was actually toggled to the wrong map, it actually looks pretty similar to 18z overall. Still expect 1/2 to 3 inches for the forum. 

Cold air is diving down with vengeance,expect to still see some decent ratios with your orographics i think you might be in the sweet spot

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21 minutes ago, RichardJacks said:

The NAM has been steadily increasing PWATS, the higher amounts still do not make it as far east as Alabama, but could be sign of more moisture avail than what it is showing.

Thanks for the post, welcome!  Always good to see a professional take the time to drop some knowledge.

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NAM lost some qpf overall that run by the end of it. Kinda surprised me because it was similar or maybe even better at 500mb than prior runs. Especially dropped QPF in the Northeastern areas and some western areas. All in all still similar thoughts. There will be areas of 2-3 inches with maybe a few who pass 3, but by in large most will be in the .5 to 2 inch  range. 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NAM lost some qpf overall that run by the end of it. Kinda surprised me because it was similar or maybe even better at 500mb than prior runs. Especially dropped QPF in the Northeastern areas and some western areas. All in all still similar thoughts. There will be areas of 2-3 inches with maybe a few who pass 3, but by in large most will be in the .5 to 2 inch  range. 

Agree!  SREF means fell too although marginally for TYS and CHA.  Up everywhere else.

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8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NAM lost some qpf overall that run by the end of it. Kinda surprised me because it was similar or maybe even better at 500mb than prior runs. Especially dropped QPF in the Northeastern areas and some western areas. All in all still similar thoughts. There will be areas of 2-3 inches with maybe a few who pass 3, but by in large most will be in the .5 to 2 inch  range. 

Same here, thought it.was going to be a better run...not quite sure what happened.

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I was about to post the 700mb humidity. That's the snow growth zone as a rule and it's great when you see humidity above 90 percent there. 

Old friend taught me a long time ago to watch the 700mb maps lol. Just looking at 3k PWAT trend, you can also see a subtle trend increase on it as well.

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When you run a longer trend on the 12k NAM, it looks as if it is slowly digging the trough further SSW, which slows the front allowing a little better moisture return each run. Question is it a bias of the NAM.

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