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RichardJacks

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About RichardJacks

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBHM
  • Location:
    Hoover, Al
  • Interests
    TV meteorologist for 20 years, now a Realtor in Birmingham, AL

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  1. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    the upper trough is beginning to pivot. Yes, it will cause the band to move but also it is the pivoting that helps bring up moisture
  2. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Will be interesting to see if this continues, but that area of precip in northeast Texas is moving more east than NE.
  3. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    It is an arctic front with steroidal upper dynamics causing southwest winds aloft pulling moisture northward. How is that?
  4. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1056 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 .NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight) Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 The arctic front is quickly moving southeast across the TN Valley and is about to pass over KDCU after already passing KMSL. The bigger news is the update in snowfall accumulations... Made a real quick update to trend snowfall accumulations up due to the mesoscale trends in snowfall rates with the band of snow to the NW over N MS/W TN. Snowfall to liquid ratios are looking to be around 15:1 to 20:1 in far NW AL and perhaps 15:1 over north central AL/southern middle TN. The upward trend has resulted in a small area over far NW AL having forecast amount of nearly 2 inches. If the trend continues to hold, may need to upgrade a few counties to winter storm warning (criteria is >2 inches). For now though, have just updated the wording in the winter weather advisory to reflect the current thinking. Also, made an adjustment to raise probabilities for snow beginning around 09Z- 12Z and trended adjustments to the falling temperatures. .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018
  5. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    The 18z NAM did not show the snow in west Tenn we are seeing this evening.
  6. RichardJacks

    Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I have to wonder if the higher amounts near the front tonight is just because the cold air is squeezing every bit of moisture out and the models don't handle that too well.
  7. RichardJacks

    Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Thanks! Glad to chime in when I can...
  8. RichardJacks

    Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Plumes have really gone up for Memphis...there will be mesoscale processes that they are going to miss...will be interesting to watch 0z nam
  9. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    The arctic air behind the front is very cold and dense, any moisture will be squeezed out as snow. If the models are under forecasting the moisture, or not handling the process correctly, there will be more snow than shown.
  10. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Well these arctic fronts are known to squeeze everything out...I too have noticed the 700mb drying and you can see how it dries out the sounding...if winds do not veer, and the squeezing out is underplayed, this could be more significant.
  11. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    You would think the moisture would be deeper than the NAM/GFS for this kind out output, but in comparing, I don't see much difference in the PWATS.
  12. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    The warm air advection at the 700 mb back in Texas appears to be strong than progged will have to watch to see if this translates eastward, would mean more snow
  13. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    For moisture to be cutoff by convection, you typically need a more linear look to the south. There just isn't enough there to provide any kind of bock.
  14. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Also, when you look at the transformation happening aloft...I could see the snow finish a bit heavier than what NAM is showing.
  15. RichardJacks

    January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

    Here is a look at the higher PWATS trend. Especially in the last 5 frames.
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