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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Is it already that time?

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What is crazy is how very little thunder we have had in NE TN this winter - not even sure I can name a time where we have had even weak thunderstorms.  I think last January we had a really bad severe event on my end of town - knocked down a bunch of trees.  But yeah, with a ridge temporarily bellying into the center of the country...could happen.  I haven't even been able to use my "thunder in the mountain...snow within ten days" rule this winter - yet.

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While I can remember some New Years thunder, it's usually after Martin Luther King Day. Well, here we are! Funny we say that about both snow and thunder. Well, both require a decent system so there's the link.

Monday Jan. 25 looks interesting but no concerns; also, it's still several days out. Couple things look more like spring than winter. Upper level winds are forecast WSW with the wave vs some big ol' teardrop SSW wind. Also allows a just right 700 mb temp forecast, but that's too detailed seven days out. Still the 700 mb forecast is probably why models don't break out a Gulf Coast MCS. All that's subject to change. Climo sure says so.

Another reason the Deep South may have little convection is wave timing. Again seven days is too early. Of course there's two waves forecast. Early wave would have subsidence behind it. Also the LLJ could get veered off that way. All these problems sound more like early season climo. Such a LLJ from the moist sector would support heavy rain on the warm front and or in the Mid South though.

Bottom line: I have little concern about severe weather next week - except heavy rain. However I'd rather talk about thunderstorms than the winter pattern right now.

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APEC SHOWS A MORE +TNI but not well into early spring ,more late spring into early summer,but you can still see how volatile 1+2 can be at times.

Sea-Surface-Temperature-APEC-Climate-Center.png

Sea-Surface-Temperature-APEC-Climate-Center (1).png

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Maybe the atmosphere will lead the SSTs which can happen. It's a package deal. I almost wrote hopefully, but maybe I should take a more neutral approach to the topic.

A delayed +TNI response would not hurt my feelings. Honestly I'd rather travel to the open Plains late season. Early season Dixie is sloppy. 

In other news, I don't think Monday Jan. 25 will be a thing. Maybe just enjoy the warm temps in the warm sector when it's not raining.

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On 1/23/2021 at 5:53 PM, nrgjeff said:

Maybe the atmosphere will lead the SSTs which can happen. It's a package deal. I almost wrote hopefully, but maybe I should take a more neutral approach to the topic.

A delayed +TNI response would not hurt my feelings. Honestly I'd rather travel to the open Plains late season. Early season Dixie is sloppy. 

In other news, I don't think Monday Jan. 25 will be a thing. Maybe just enjoy the warm temps in the warm sector when it's not raining.

system to watch  should be the one around the 5th

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The warm sector had entered Middle Tennessee. :clap:

January thunder is nice, especially if February snow follows it, haha. Figure they'll keep the Marginal. Instability is there, though modest. Despite some warm air in the sounding, there's SRH and low LCLs - Dixie Alley things, lol!

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Upgraded to slight. After downtrending quite a bit from some ominous longer range model solutions, the mesoscale has swung the ceiling for today's threat modestly back in the other direction (rather like the accompanying Midwest/western Great Lakes winter storm).

@andyhb posted a sounding elsewhere showing a significant EML on today's 12Z Shreveport sounding, the type which could move problematic should they accompany later systems that hold together better with eastward extent.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

   Areas affected...Northern/Central Mississippi...Western/Middle
   Tennessee...Northwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252249Z - 260015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the
   Mid-South into Middle TN this evening. Some risk for tornadoes may
   necessitate a watch in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across
   the central Plains this evening. The more appreciable height falls
   will spread across the Mid-MS into the OH Valley region. Along the
   southern fringe of this stronger large-scale forcing, robust
   convection has recently developed across portions of western TN
   where surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s with surface
   temperatures in the lower 70s. This activity should spread
   east-northeast along a corridor that is destabilizing just south of
   a well-defined warm front. Ample shear/buoyancy exist for supercells
   (possibly tornadic supercell ongoing over Fayette County TN) and
   there is increasing concern/confidence that other organized
   longer-lived storms may develop.

   Farther south along the Pacific front, showers are gradually
   deepening from northwest MS into northeast LA. Some lightning is
   noted with the stronger updrafts but activity has struggled to
   organize. It's not entirely clear how many organized supercells
   can/will develop along this zone, but shear/buoyancy do favor some
   tornado threat. Tornado watch may be warranted for this activity in
   the next couple of hours.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/25/2021

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Didn't get a tornado but by far the best fireworks i have seen in the past couple years here.Went on my back patio to watch and a bolt :lightning: hit about a quarter mile away,scared the piss out out me..lol

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Nothing remotely severe here but lots of thunder and lightning and very heavy rain. 

Yeah we got a good dose of rain also

 

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

TNC037-187-260645-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FA.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T0645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Davidson TN-Williamson TN-
1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Nashville has extended the

* Flood Advisory for...
  Southern Davidson County in middle Tennessee...
  Northern Williamson County in middle Tennessee...

* Until 1245 AM CST.

* At 1114 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
  fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Franklin, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak
  Hill, Belle Meade, Pegram, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Hermitage,
  Rural Hill, Berry Hill, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Leipers Fork
  and Percy Priest Lake.

 

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Not a single mention of the destructive, likely significant tornado in the northern suburbs of Birmingham (Fultondale/Center Point) tonight?

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4 hours ago, andyhb said:

Not a single mention of the destructive, likely significant tornado in the northern suburbs of Birmingham (Fultondale/Center Point) tonight?

I was beat and getting ready for bed,i seen it in east Ms earlier,should have said something like you said at that time

 

I've always thought the TN Valley should be renamed and more parts of MS/AL/GA should be added in since no one covers that area,you'd get more posters here just as well.To be honest here,we are not even considered the TN Valley here

 

 

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I was beat and getting ready for bed,i seen it in east Ms earlier,should have said something like you said at that time
 
I've always thought the TN Valley should be renamed and more parts of MS/AL/GA should be added in since no one covers that area,you'd get more posters here just as well.To be honest here,we are not even considered the TN Valley here


Where are you located,@jaxjagman ?

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46 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Well, it was nocturnal and didn't affect our forum area, so naturally people wouldn't post about it until the morning.

I always thought of northern Alabama as part of the Tennessee Valley region, is the Birmingham area too far south? As @jaxjagman pointed out, the Southeastern States forum tends to be dominated by Carolinas and perhaps Florida/coastal GA discussion. The heart of Dixie Alley seems to kind of get glossed over on this board apart from the huge events like 4/27/11.

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6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I always thought of northern Alabama as part of the Tennessee Valley region, is the Birmingham area too far south? As @jaxjagman pointed out, the Southeastern States forum tends to be dominated by Carolinas and perhaps Florida/coastal GA discussion. The heart of Dixie Alley seems to kind of get glossed over on this board apart from the huge events like 4/27/11.

The only association Birmingham has with the Tennessee Valley that I can think of is it has some municipalities serviced by TVA. Birmingham/Jefferson County, AL is not in the Tennessee Valley watershed. It's close, though. Huntsville, which is just 90 miles north, is most definitely in the Tennessee Valley region.

This map explains it pretty well, I think:
Holston River | American Rivers

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47 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

The only association Birmingham has with the Tennessee Valley that I can think of is it has some municipalities serviced by TVA. Birmingham/Jefferson County, AL is not in the Tennessee Valley watershed. It's close, though. Huntsville, which is just 90 miles north, is most definitely in the Tennessee Valley region.

This map explains it pretty well, I think:
Holston River | American Rivers

I always found it interesting that the only portion of TN that doesn’t drain to the Mississippi River is a very small slice of southern Bradley and Southwest Polk Counties. Conasauga river watershed. 

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I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta.  We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South".  These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum.

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2 hours ago, kayman said:

I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta.  We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South".  These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum.

Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.

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It seems the Southeastern Forum is dominated by perpetual winter discussions about the slightest chance of snow in the Carolinas. Perhaps the Carolinas should have their own forum. And have Eastern MS, AL, TN, GA, FL for the Southeast. Just my two cents. 

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