TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not so bad there, because you get in on the initial WAA thump. It really impacts the later stages of the storm for NNE. I couldn't be more confused.. Looking at euro, i'd guess seeing that circulation I posted would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 One of the old rules of thumb for snowfall forecasting was the heavy snow axis will generally be along the -5C isotherm. Which in the case of the Euro runs along the NNE coast and then down the 495 corridor. Another rule of thumb is just north of the last closed 700 mb height contour. That supports a band of heavy snow farther west than the 850 -5C. But in the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: One of the old rules of thumb for snowfall forecasting was the heavy snow axis will generally be along the -5C isotherm. Which in the case of the Euro runs along the NNE coast and then down the 495 corridor. Another rule of thumb is just north of the last closed 700 mb height contour. That supports a band of heavy snow farther west than the 850 -5C. But in the same general area. I mean, I'd say Ray probably expects worst if 495 is hugging 5c, even I stay right around there at Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh well, staying up for euro ensembles. Literally get out of work in 15 minutes. Been on the clock at my first and second job since 730am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV. Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your (Mid-Atl) potential snowfall event. First call 1-3" DCA-IAD 3-5" BWI 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB 10-15" w NS (my track is based on a blend of Euro, NAM and RGEM and I expect a central pressure of 953 mbs just south of 40/70) 80 mph gusts over much of se MA will lead to considerable damage and storm surges Heavier snow than most are expecting over VT and upstate NY as Lakes low is pulled into circulation and there may be heavy lake effect from Lake Champlain for BTV I also suspect some wild variations locally due to deformation band, subsidence effects, but think most will be inside the 12 to 35 inch outcome spectrum, outer Cape and islands 5-12" due to some mixing Wicked ! (Not really a first call for most of the above, this is what I was thinking 3-4 days ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 24, euro ens mean slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 42, euro ens mean is west. not sure how it compares to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV. Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your (Mid-Atl) potential snowfall event. First call 1-3" DCA-IAD 3-5" BWI 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB 10-15" w NS (my track is based on a blend of Euro, NAM and RGEM and I expect a central pressure of 953 mbs just south of 40/70) 80 mph gusts over much of se MA will lead to considerable damage and storm surges Heavier snow than most are expecting over VT and upstate NY as Lakes low is pulled into circulation and there may be heavy lake effect from Lake Champlain for BTV I also suspect some wild variations locally due to deformation band, subsidence effects, but think most will be inside the 12 to 35 inch outcome spectrum, outer Cape and islands 5-12" due to some mixing Wicked ! (Not really a first call for most of the above, this is what I was thinking 3-4 days ago) I am in Rochester. Looking at euro and hammers roc area with half inch qpf. With lake snow. I been here all my life and this stuff is 25 to 30 to 1 Ratios. Plus is giving wind gust to 45mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 euro ensembles paint a similar picture to the euro itself at this point in terms of qpf. good shift from 12z to the west. up to 1.0" liquid or close to it near BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH NWS has their high end at 1/2 your low end for me here in south central NH. I'd be shocked if we hit 15" on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, bobbutts said: NWS has their high end at 1/2 your low end for me here in south central NH. I'd be shocked if we hit 15" on this one. I wouldn't be shocked, but I wouldn't say it's likely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB Wicked ! That's an All-Timer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This storm has extremely high bust potential on many fronts, reminding me of the many snow events of the 1980s which most of you are too young to remember. Three in particular come to mind. January 1987. February 1987. February 1989. All three events trended farther east. Lots of busted forecasts. This was back when tv news was king and local tv anchors and mets were huge stars. February 1987 spared most of New England but slammed cape cod with one of its worst blizzards on record. 1989 spared most of the eastern seaboard despite initial, ominous warnings. Huge model failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Close analog 25-Jan-00-3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 January 25 trended way west at the eleventh hour and its best remembered for dumping over a foot of surprise snow on dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thank you for your contribution Roger. Your predictions defy current model consensus, but if your predictions are remotely close to verifying please come back and we'll give you trump like bragging rights. And if you bust, we'll call Mueller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, just wow on the NAM bomb. Looks to be just inside the BM at hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV. Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your (Mid-Atl) potential snowfall event. First call 1-3" DCA-IAD 3-5" BWI 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB 10-15" w NS (my track is based on a blend of Euro, NAM and RGEM and I expect a central pressure of 953 mbs just south of 40/70) 80 mph gusts over much of se MA will lead to considerable damage and storm surges Heavier snow than most are expecting over VT and upstate NY as Lakes low is pulled into circulation and there may be heavy lake effect from Lake Champlain for BTV I also suspect some wild variations locally due to deformation band, subsidence effects, but think most will be inside the 12 to 35 inch outcome spectrum, outer Cape and islands 5-12" due to some mixing Wicked ! (Not really a first call for most of the above, this is what I was thinking 3-4 days ago) Still celebrating the New Year, Roger, with left-over egg nog from Christmas? Seriously, truly love your enthusiasm and hope you're right! Still time to trend a little further W, but don't anticipate a track that would bring a widespread 12-35" or that the progressive nature of the steering will allow amounts towards the high-end of those figures. Given this is the atmospheric sciences, which are inherently complex and inexact, I also wouldn't be surprised if it over-performs relative to the current "expected" snowfall maps produced by Tauton. One could even argue this setup has a higher than normal bust-potential, either side of forecast amounts. We shall see! EDIT: Need to clarify that it's reasonable to expect SNE to possibly get a widespread 12-15" snowfall, with continued west trends, but don't anticipate a widespread 20-35" event. Hoping I'm incorrect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At hour 39, 6z nam is west of 0z. Huge hit for sne and shifted heavy precip west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 06z Nam is way west of 0z, Going to be some mixing into SE MA , Mid coast and DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Still think this goes into se mass ultimatly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM destroys all of SNE.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Loving the 6Z NAM, what a giagantic leap west, holy sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Still think this goes into se mass ultimatly Wow, what a coincidence, you live in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Loving the 6Z NAM, what a giagantic leap west, holy sh*t There's just no way. Only model showing anything like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 25thamendmentfan said: Thank you for your contribution Roger. Your predictions defy current model consensus, but if your predictions are remotely close to verifying please come back and we'll give you trump like bragging rights. And if you bust, we'll call Mueller. I don't tweet, that's for birds. There will certainly be big variations in a fast-moving explosive storm like this, but there will be huge snowfall maxima too with this combination of intense cold, warm ocean and explosive deepening. Some place around Augusta to Bangor maybe could get the max, and it may be hard to measure with all the drifting that's likely, but 3-4 feet would not surprise me. Northern NB gets that on occasion too. They say that the same guy who named Greenland named the Baie de Chaleur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM drops 2" qpf on the Tolland Massif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: There's just no way. Only model showing anything like it Only model that came out in the 6Z suite so far also...thinking its probably overdone but good to see it going this way and not the other tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That’s a general 14-20” for all that stay snow back to the MA border. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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