TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Need a lot more support then just the gefs and the 3k NAM.. Ray has provided more than enough support than just that, if you're speaking about western portions of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low. WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast. Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Need a lot more support then just he gefs and the 3k NAM.. We're also within 24 hours.......that has to mean something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Greg said: InstantWeatherMaps, Interesting, these models say the jacks are Worcester to Springfield and the main model suite so far says Worcester to Boston is the jack. Which one is correct? We'll find out. Hopefully Springfield to Boston jacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I noticed BOX added the mention of damage to trees and power lines off the coast and back to ORH CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GEFS being amped is a flag, dude...so isn't Bahamian convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: We're also within 24 hours.......that has to mean something.... True. The gefs gave me some optimism but I feel like I’ve had that same feeling 5 times already with this storm just to be let done. I have to imagine we will finally have some clarity by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I noticed BOX added the mention of damage to trees and power lines off the coast and back to ORH CO But actually it may be automatically added wording with the HazSimp formatter based on the wind speeds in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low. WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast. Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England. This low is forming s of the keys? Jesus...got moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That' like 200 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This low is forming s of the keys? Jesus...got mousture? The farther west we can keep it now the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 12 hours, we are pretty similar to 12z. Obviously, run has barely started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: The farther west we can keep it now the better. I would rather the death band over ORH and CT than Plymouth, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: Through 12 hours, we are pretty similar to 12z. Obviously, run has barely started. Well, wouldn't that imply poor initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Seems like the northern stream trough on the ECMWF from 12z-00z is not as strong or deep. May not act as much as a kicker and let the southern mess come north more more easily without the boot east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro looks like it may go slightly east....but it's not doing the weird micro-cane thing that 12z did, so we will see by the time it reaches out latitude, It could make up some ground late since 12z took a pretty decent turn right at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Seems like the northern stream trough on the ECMWF from 12z-00z is not as strong or deep. May not act as much as a kicker and let the southern mess come north more more easily without the boot east? This is what I am seeing, but afraid to say, through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: True. The gefs gave me some optimism but I feel like I’ve had that same feeling 5 times already with this storm just to be let done. I have to imagine we will finally have some clarity by 12z tomorrow. Let’s be honest....the storm is annoying AF.....next up the king.....let’s see where we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Through 24, it is far different than that bizarre look we had earlier at 12z. It is much weaker, seems to be more realistic in terms of strength. Wouldn't say it's moved all that much. Just broader circulation vs tightly wound to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It might make up some ground here in the final 100-200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's trying to turn left...I think it will be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Beast for E Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Jesus a QPF beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Massive changes at 5h through hr 30. Way weaker, but it might change track in a positive manner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: Massive changes at 5h through hr 30. Way weaker, but it might change track in a positive manner? I'd rather 964 over the bm, than 950 well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah that's better than 12z, lol...it held that southern stream in closer and didn't let it escape east as fast as 12z. It's what the model guidance has been generally doing...as it gets closer, it keeps that southern stream a little more tucked in when we cross that 36 hour threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's better than 12z, lol...it held that southern stream in closer and didn't let it escape east as fast as 12z. It's what the model guidance has been generally doing...as it gets closer, it keeps that southern stream a little more tucked in when we cross that 36 hour threshold. We knew that escape was BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's better than 12z, lol...it held that southern stream in closer and didn't let it escape east as fast as 12z. It's what the model guidance has been generally doing...as it gets closer, it keeps that southern stream a little more tucked in when we cross that 36 hour threshold. The lest northern stream interaction the better. Keep trending that trough over the Great Lakes weaker and weaker and let the southern stream do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It seems almost as if the slower intensification allows for this to be captured into the upper level trof more efficiently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We knew that escape was BS. Keep that southern stream tucked in allows the mid-level circulation to flex it's muscles more....it's stronger at H5 when it passes near the Cape which lets it go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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