weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 CMC is solid for eastern areas. Warning snow for many. Takes the low just outside of the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what messed me up...I focused too much on the s SW, when the n stream drives the bus. S stream will control strength more and the N stream will steer it more is prob a good way to think of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Good for sh it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: CMC is solid for eastern areas. Warning snow for many. Takes the low just outside of the bm. Oh Canada...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 One comforting thought, when was the last time the GFS nailed a big one at 5 days? It usually chokes. If Euro comes in pretty good tonight, I'll feel pretty decent about the threat...doesn't need to be a huge hit, but something close to today's 12z would be fine for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: S stream will control strength more and the N stream will steer it more is prob a good way to think of it. Hasn't the n stream been coming ashore stronger than modeled this season, or am I making that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hasn't the n stream been coming ashore stronger than modeled this season, or am I making that up? No you're not, they've been stronger it seems when they get sampled better...happened in Dec 9th and Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC is solid for eastern areas. Warning snow for many. Takes the low just outside of the bm. Yeah but it trended towards what the gfs did this run, and that ended up as mostly a whiff. Still solid this run, but not for long if that jump is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One comforting thought, when was the last time the GFS nailed a big one at 5 days? It usually chokes. If Euro comes in pretty good tonight, I'll feel pretty decent about the threat...doesn't need to be a huge hit, but something close to today's 12z would be fine for now. Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah but it trended towards what the gfs did this run, and that ended up as mostly a whiff. Still solid this run, but not for long if that jump is real. The 12z output was absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One comforting thought, when was the last time the GFS nailed a big one at 5 days? It usually chokes. If Euro comes in pretty good tonight, I'll feel pretty decent about the threat...doesn't need to be a huge hit, but something close to today's 12z would be fine for now. It hasn't, And when was the last time it was the western outlier? Not that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: It hasn't, And when was the last time it was the western outlier? Not that either. Saddle up Cowboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Saddle up Cowboy Christ have we been down this road before, Fook the GFS, It has sucked all season, Why would it be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The GEM is prone to very wide swings...so that fact that it is still decent for eastern areas lends itself to the idea that NCEP is OTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The GEM is prone to very wide swings...so that fact that it is still decent for eastern areas lends itself to the idea that NCEP is OTL.The CMC is out to lunch. Two low centers...lol. One in GOM and one south of Cape Breton....tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: The CMC is out to lunch. Two low centers...lol. One in GOM and one south of Cape Breton....tossed. I didn't look at it. I wasn't endorsing its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 The double barreled low is on most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Christ have we been down this road before, Fook the GFS, It has sucked all season, Why would it be right now. TBlizz gonna totally melt after he drops below zero then has a cutter I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: The CMC is out to lunch. Two low centers...lol. One in GOM and one south of Cape Breton....tossed. Pretty much we have had two low centers on every model run so far, I don't know if you can toss them all, But i think moving forward the focus will become on one, Either offshore or closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 There are multiple pieces in this puzzle and we need them to all line up right. N stream digging, s stream strong and needs to be timed right, and that lead vorticity not dragging barcolinic zone out near Bermuda . (Is that accurate lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: The double barreled low is on most guidance. I believe that to be an artifact of modeling. They are having trouble with the interaction of the streams, and it will likely consolidate into one low closer in. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: The CMC is out to lunch. Two low centers...lol. One in GOM and one south of Cape Breton....tossed. Why does that mean it's OTL?totally physically possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Pretty much we have had two low centers on every model run so far, I don't know if you can toss them all, But i think moving forward the focus will become on one, Either offshore or closer to the coast. YES. Double-barrel lows are skin to inverted troughs...usually the model trying to communicate difficulty resolving something more than a viable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: TBlizz gonna totally melt after he drops below zero then has a cutter I think We have him right where we want him right now though, He gets onboard and he will pull a frank on us............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Somebody must be getting close to having the 300BC ukie maps here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The double barrel low idea is just the models trying to figure out which donkey to pin the tail on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think more n stream interaction will focus on the low closer to shore, less the one further off shore, at the expense of the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ukie is way east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I believe that to be an artifact of modeling. They are having trouble with the interaction of the streams, and it will likely consolidate into one low closer in. JMHO. I agree but I’m not sure the closer in one is the choIce. Hopefully yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: I agree but I’m not sure the closer in one is the choIce. Hopefully yes. See my previous post...depends on n stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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