weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sounds like maybe a track closer to the coast like a couple days back? I saw GFS do this in January 2015 when ostensibly it was still a pretty far ots track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I saw GFS do this in January 2015 when ostensibly it was still a pretty far ots track. Ain't happening, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ain't happening, James. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Through hr 84.....the trough is a hair further west, but the s SW is weaker....western ridging is a bit weaker. This run won't do it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Through hr 84.....the trough is a hair further west, but the s SW is weaker....western ridging is a bit weaker. This run won't do it imo. It will be an improvement vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This run looks better to me than 12z aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This run looks better to me than 12z aloft. I thought the higher hts out ahead over us is a big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 It’s still ots but trending on all guidance in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The fact that the H5 layout looks better inside of 120 hrs is huge imo...that isn't fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This run is going to be better then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pretty close to a major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Not where we ultimately want it but at this lead, A good spot for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 What a nuke tough, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not where we ultimately want it but at this lead, A good spot for it. Agree. The trend tonight is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This has eastern Maine/New Brunswick look to it in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: This has eastern Maine/New Brunswick look to it in my opinion. This run...sure. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Agree. The trend tonight is better. Yes, Tonight's trends are where we want to see this heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Down well into the 950s at 144... what a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Machias FTW. Nice attempt at a stemwinder for us. Even with that really wide turn it still gives E MA advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Agree. The trend tonight is better. We knew all we needed was a scooter melt and the trend would start reversing. Get that man a double bourbon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Machias FTW. Nice attempt at a stemwinder for us. Even with that really wide turn it still gives E MA advisory snows. Hook-and-latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 953mb, Get this another 100 miles west, Its game on, This is heading the right way, That's all i need to see from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We knew all we needed was a scooter melt and the trend would start reversing. Get that man a double bourbon. I'll get the next round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We'll probably see it trend a little slower with the intensification, too.....classic euro bias to have a 920mb low off the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Keep this southern vort closer to the coast then the wide swing right before the hook back NW and its a SECS at minimum up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Will, how does this compare to the Dec 1981 event? Evolution have any similarities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 By tomorrow, models will look great for Maine with another day of shifting to put the rest of eastern NE into the picture. Hopefully. Hard to not get optimistic with leaps of improvement on H5 vort each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This will crush New England, with possible exception of VT and far w MA, even they are in with a shout. The slow westward trend on recent model runs, after the big lurch out to sea two days back, seems like it's too close to show time to reverse again, so it would not be surprising if the final track is even closer to Cape Cod, maybe within 50 miles. And with the thermal contrasts and likely deep center below 960 mbs, this could be a historic storm for both wind and snowfall. Look for it to ramp up a little faster than current guidance too, would not be surprised if it turns out to be mostly Jan 3rd rather than 4th, but either way, I think it's coming and there's 20-40 inch potential in it. With the entrenched cold air, mixing will not hit land except maybe eastern Nantucket and grazing the outer cape. If I'm wrong about this track, look out Nova Scotia cuz you'll get it full blast instead, in fact I think you'll get a big storm in Atlantic Canada anyway on my proposed track, but it will be a mixed bag of precip types. Heaviest snowfalls likely to be ORH-CON-LWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gfs and gefs are more west This is getting very interesting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EPS members are pretty evenly split between absolutely nothing and a solid hit. Certainly more than I expected of huge hits too even back to BTV in the actual individuals. Funny a lot of the EPS members have quite the gradient though from SW to NE making me think the bigger hits are coming in on a very negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.