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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM might be fun...of course it's the NAM, and even worse, the NAM between 72-84 hours.

Looks like the GGEM, Nogaps, JMA, like fighting 4 midgets against Bruno Sammartino

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM might be fun...of course it's the NAM, and even worse, the NAM between 72-84 hours.

Gotta hang our hats on something to get the first regionwide snows. Nam/cmc/weeniegaps killer combo. 

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It did make a west shift from 06Z, Gets the south coast of SNE with snow, Lot more work to do if its to get snow further inland.

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Just now, dryslot said:

It did make a west shift from 06Z, Gets the south coast of SNE with snow, Lot more work to do if its to get snow further inland.

That would probably be pretty good for most of the eastern half of NE if it went another frame or two. It's slowed down and partially phasing with the lakes s/w.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM might be fun...of course it's the NAM, and even worse, the NAM between 72-84 hours.

Interesting though that pretty much all of the models are making those slight westward shifts for the past few runs.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would probably be pretty good for most of the eastern half of NE if it went another frame or two. It's slowed down and partially phasing with the lakes s/w.

I really only glanced at the surface map so i didin't look at H5 as its the NAM long range....................lol

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Just now, WintersComing said:

Interesting though that pretty much all of the models are making those slight westward shifts for the past few runs.

Well, That's really what you want to see happen, We are starting to get into the time frame where you want to see this trend favorably if your looking for a snow event up here.

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Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man... like the journey was on purpose to maximize some unforeseeable force's Schadenfreude.

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man...

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

For as bad as it is, it can have major wins...problem is, we just never know which game. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man...

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

I don't remember which one it was last year, But i think the Nam actually sniffed one of thees storm systems out, But i could be wrong.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man...

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

I'm convinced this is "The One".  NAM is gonna rock us with 6-12 region wide with that phasing!! ;) (Not sure what I'm smoking)

 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man...

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

NAM was the winner in Jan 23rd 2016 storm, only model to bring blizzard into NYC and to the Mass border

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NAM was the first model to really catch on to northern trend in Jan 2016 blizzard....of course it overshot the mark and tried to bury SNE too....but while the Euro and other globals were having trouble getting anything decent north of PHL....the NAM crushed NYC.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man...

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

NAM did pretty good in Jan 16 when most all guidance said that the blizzard was to stay completely south of SNE...if I remember correctly it was the first model to start bringing the snow up this way, and led the way on that.  CT coast did the best with that...especially southwestern areas(I got about 9 inches in Central CT).  Once north of Central areas it dropped off badly to almost nothing up by the CT/MASS line.  

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8 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I'm convinced this is "The One".  NAM is gonna rock us with 6-12 region wide with that phasing!! ;) (Not sure what I'm smoking)

 

Ha! 

right ... thing is, as RUN' was just surmising rather succinctly ... which time is the coup time.  Who knows what's rattling around in the head of that guidance tool -  ...I guess we start with known model biases and work into from there.  Probably the only way to go - the NAM "used to" have a NW bias in the western Atlantic Basic - that's true ... I don't know if that is still the case.  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM was the first model to really catch on to northern trend in Jan 2016 blizzard....of course it overshot the mark and tried to bury SNE too....but while the Euro and other globals were having trouble getting anything decent north of PHL....the NAM crushed NYC.

Actually the SREF was the 1st model to start the west trend

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This isn’t going to be a warning event. If you are putting eggs in that basket.. Shame on .

But if you are planning for a region wide 2-4” event for SNE, then you will walk away very happy 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This isn’t going to be a warning event. If you are putting eggs in that basket.. Shame on .

But if you are planning for a region wide 2-4” event for SNE, then you will walk away very happy 

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha! 

right ... thing is, as RUN' was just surmising rather succinctly ... which time is the coup time.  How knows what's rattling around in the head of that guidance tool -  ...I guess we start with known model biases and work into from there.  Probably the only way to go - the NAM "used to" have a NW bias in the western Atlantic Basic - that's true ... I don't know if that is still the case.  

As MC Hammer always used to say....."NAMertime"

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't remember which one it was last year, But i think the Nam actually sniffed one of thees storm systems out, But i could be wrong.

Me too ... I don't keep tabs on that sort of thing ... but will tend to recall bigger positive(negative) busts. 

I don't even recall a 2016 storm - the last two winters were in general disappointing blurs for me.  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... not so privy to everyone's posts in this thread this morning ... but, I will say that the recent three cycles of the NAM does tend one to head scratch how we're getting out of that early weekend thing without SOMEthing .. 

Problem is ... and this is admittedly my own experience: I've seen the NAM unwaver right to it's grave with these things before ... just slowly erodes starting .... approximately 48 hours out until 6 hours prior it all but finally concedes... Meanwhile, doe-eyed enthusiasts are strung along blithely -  haha. oh man...

anyway, then of course there's the January 2005 over publicized storm ... which, the NAM actually smoked all guidance.  It actually smoke all guidance on the short term wrt to dec 2005 too...  I think it's been a few years since a NAM coup ? hmm

NAM had a coup in North Carolina earlier this year with the January system. It was the first to shift west from SE of Raleigh all the way to near Greensboro, giving a big mix area between RDU and GSO. Other models never pick up on this. I realize that it's different here since we're looking at the synoptic scale and a different region, but I think it's worth noting from my experience. If NAM continues to shift west, I'll take that as a good sign. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Me too ... I don't keep tabs on that sort of thing ... but will tend to recall bigger positive(negative) busts. 

Yeah, Those seem to leave a longer lasting impression for the better or worse.

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1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

NAM had a coup in North Carolina earlier this year with the January system. It was the first to shift west from SE of Raleigh all the way to near Greensboro, giving a big mix area between RDU and GSO. Other models never pick up on this. I realize that it's different here since we're looking at the synoptic scale and a different region, but I think it's worth noting from my experience. If NAM continues to shift west, I'll take that as a good sign. 

Yeah... there may be geographies where the NAM seems to handle thing better ... But what you describe sounds more like deep layer mechanical distribution as opposed to local effects .. hm.   

Yeah, it's weird ..  it's like the NAM is either catastrophically right, ...or catastrophically wrong. Mike Ekster (Met up there in the Maine office I think?)  and I had this conversation off- line at a conference once about how the NAM is too good for it's britches (so to speak...) it's so tightly spatially gridded that it doesn't have enough actual obs to fill those points without a lot of interpolations ... I mean we 'surmised' that's the cause... So, you end up nailing things from the ether, but unfortunately... probably fail more often in the other way. interesting...  

One thing about this run(s) since 18z  ...just how phenomenally fast the NAM careens that N/Stream dynamic bundle/v-max S to catch up to that southern stream...  It's ironica because in the other thread I was doing a sort of FAST 101 sermon about norther stream subsume scenarios just an hour ago...  and this model is trying to narrowly slip that sort of stream interaction together with almost no bandwidth for mistakes...  ha.. wow.  

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Was there a change in the Kuchera output recently?  Seems by looking at the last few :weenie: maps it's more conservative with amounts than 10:1.  Just wondering if they changed something with it.

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3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Was there a change in the Kuchera output recently?  Seems by looking at the last few :weenie: maps it's more conservative with amounts than 10:1.  Just wondering if they changed something with it.

Probably not factoring in uber cold temps yet. Wait until next month.

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